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I for one am not giving up my freedom to drive my car my way and putting it in the hands of Ford or GM
Thats fine. Its absolutely going to happen though. But a significant portion of people will still own their own cars, and drive them manually. Your insurance will be lower then it is now because the automated vehicles will make it even safer. Kind of like how you can still by stickshift cars. Hardly anyone does-but its a option.
I for one am not giving up my freedom to drive my car my way and putting it in the hands of Ford or GM
There will never be driverless cars for the simple reason that there situations where AI can't take control. I look at yesterday's snow/ice storm in Denver. When we woke up, I couldn't see the roads at all as they were covered in snow with a fine layer of ice below. AI wouldn't be able to see the road and know when / how to drive in those conditions.
In addition, you have more complex situations. Parking garages, unpaved roads, rural/back country areas etc. Hell, what about when they do construction and re-route you or when they close one side of a highway and make traffic go both directions on the other side. There will always need to be human controls to override the system.
Sure, I get that. Once the majority of vehicles on the road are automated, they will behave like a hive.
That isn't going to happen next year, or in the next 5. I have no plans on purchasing a vehicle in the next 5 years , and I'm sure there are many like me. Is the Government going to subsidize the automated auto industry to ensure everyone gets a new automated tin can ?
There are still many variables to think about and hurdles to jump. It is coming, for sure but the speed that it is being pushed seems a bit strange.
yep lots of people are late adopters, that is no big deal. At first it will be a few self driving cars, but i believe states will quickly move to ban drivers from major roads i guess about 10 years from now drivers will be banned from a whole bunch of cities and restricted to maybe one lane or no lanes of highways....
ref pulling over a car, that is NOT an issue. it is hardly even worth talking about.
but ...
1 with self driving cars the only reason to stop a moving car is urgent safety issue and active crime. breaking a light, speeding etc are all bigger issues to be handled at a higher level.
2 a hacked car would be either an active crime or banned from most roads.
it is very likely self driving cars will have to be in compliance with co operative standards if the users which to use major roads etc... ie selfish software will not be allowed in fast lanes or in city zones.
There will never be driverless cars for the simple reason that there situations where AI can't take control. I look at yesterday's snow/ice storm in Denver. When we woke up, I couldn't see the roads at all as they were covered in snow with a fine layer of ice below. AI wouldn't be able to see the road and know when / how to drive in those conditions.
Why do you believe this? No really. Why? If humans arent in it, self driving cars wont be either. But if you can drive in it, the goal is for self driving cars to be able to. In fact snow and ice is what some systems are being tested and trained on currently. These systems are LEARNING. They arent being told. Its not some guy saying if this, then that. Its...heres a situation, try to resolve it within the following rules.
In addition, you have more complex situations. Parking garages, unpaved roads, rural/back country areas etc. Hell, what about when they do construction and re-route you or when they close one side of a highway and make traffic go both directions on the other side. There will always need to be human controls to override the system.
None of those issues are big things. It may be that construction etc will have to be planned, or that specialized signage used. But the back country roads? those arent the hard thing you imagine. Same with parking structures.
There will never be driverless cars for the simple reason that there situations where AI can't take control. I look at yesterday's snow/ice storm in Denver. When we woke up, I couldn't see the roads at all as they were covered in snow with a fine layer of ice below. AI wouldn't be able to see the road and know when / how to drive in those conditions.
In addition, you have more complex situations. Parking garages, unpaved roads, rural/back country areas etc. Hell, what about when they do construction and re-route you or when they close one side of a highway and make traffic go both directions on the other side. There will always need to be human controls to override the system.
says YOU, humans use a tiny bit of the electromagnetic spectrum to see. lidar can see snow rain and ice and tell you which one it is. it can determine snow on the road too. The big problem is that humans can not see through the fog like a machine so the machine will need to drive in pace with slower vision impaired humans (ie all humans).
we will see the sensor prices continue to fall while the abilities continue to improve.
extreme snow storms is being solved, sure we are not there yet, but we are massively closer than 5 years ago. and 5 years ago people were saying it would never be solved...
ice and snow are going to be a huge challenge for some years to come, but AI will get really really good when it gets a few million hours of snow driving and ice driving under its belt.
Thats fine. Its absolutely going to happen though. But a significant portion of people will still own their own cars, and drive them manually. Your insurance will be lower then it is now because the automated vehicles will make it even safer. Kind of like how you can still by stickshift cars. Hardly anyone does-but its a option.
My guess is that insurance will be higher for people who drive because they will be the bigger risk.
Why do you believe this? No really. Why? If humans arent in it, self driving cars wont be either. But if you can drive in it, the goal is for self driving cars to be able to. In fact snow and ice is what some systems are being tested and trained on currently. These systems are LEARNING. They arent being told. Its not some guy saying if this, then that. Its...heres a situation, try to resolve it within the following rules.
None of those issues are big things. It may be that construction etc will have to be planned, or that specialized signage used. But the back country roads? those arent the hard thing you imagine. Same with parking structures.
Actually, yes, they are. Ever driven on forest roads in CO or other wilderness areas? It's not following a straight line. Ruts, rocks and erosion means that there's often weaving from one side of the "road" to the other to not bottom out or scrape your car. There's also a lot of parks and such that don't even have a road -- just a gravel or grass area for parking without markings.
I'm not concerned with the cars "learning" conditions - I'm concerned with how long does it take for them to react and navigate in these difficult situations? Take my snowy neighborhood. I can tell where the road is based on my knowledge of the road. I can also see that there's an oncoming car so I need to scoot to the right a little more. But a car who can't see a clearly marked road won't be able to tell that the road turns into sidewalk 5' over, but I need to move 3' over to not hit the car. That's where human intervention is required.
Also, driving in the mountains, we'll often come upon spots of high country road that has melted in the sun and then around a bend that's blocked by trees and covered in a foot of snow. Again, I know this and can see the snow and know to slow down, but will the car know this before it hits the snow and ice patch?
says YOU, humans use a tiny bit of the electromagnetic spectrum to see. lidar can see snow rain and ice and tell you which one it is. it can determine snow on the road too. The big problem is that humans can not see through the fog like a machine so the machine will need to drive in pace with slower vision impaired humans (ie all humans).
we will see the sensor prices continue to fall while the abilities continue to improve.
extreme snow storms is being solved, sure we are not there yet, but we are massively closer than 5 years ago. and 5 years ago people were saying it would never be solved...
ice and snow are going to be a huge challenge for some years to come, but AI will get really really good when it gets a few million hours of snow driving and ice driving under its belt.
Again, how long does it take to recognize these situations? As soon as I walk out the door, I can tell the roads are going to be icy or snowy. Or as soon as I see an unplowed street. If the systems work like current ABS or AWD systems, they are reactionary. That's not good enough. They need to be proactive.
Lower then now, but higher then self driving vehicles. Remember, your insurance isnt 100% about you, its also based on those around you.
Good point. I also suspect should you get into an accident with a self-driving vehicle you'll be found at fault the majority of the time. Pretty easy to pull the sensor data logs and camera footage on the robot car and make the call on who screwed up, like the guy who smashed his Tesla into a truck not too long ago.
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