CA Dems Please Chime In: 2020; Kamala Harris, Issues (statistics, deaths, wisdom)

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

Vegas betting odds, you know where people actually put their money where their mouths are (unlike MSM rigged fake news polls) only have Bernie at sub-20% to win the election as of this weekend.

Trump is +80% at the moment.

Trump win sparks ‘betting armageddon’ as bookies get election wrong
Nov. 9th, 2016
By Sara Sjolin

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...ong-2016-11-09

Kinda early, CR

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

Trump win sparks ‘betting armageddon’ as bookies get election wrong
Nov. 9th, 2016
By Sara Sjolin

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...ong-2016-11-09

Kinda early, CR

Paddy Power in the UK got it so wrong, they paid out in advance for Hillary backers, so I wouldn't consider them a legit source of "vegas odds".

I got +200, +125, +50 as late as October 2016, so not everyone thought it was going to be a blowout.

Also, this time around, no one is going to get "bit" again, the bookies learned their lessons good in 2016 to follow the fake news narratives (in fact, everyone in all facets of life has dumped the fake news narratives except for a few illogical intellectual dinosaurs).

Bernie is going to lose that magical 5% of moderates which usually tip elections one way or another.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

Paddy Power in the UK got it so wrong, they paid out in advance for Hillary backers, so I wouldn't consider them a legit source of "vegas odds".

I got +200, +125, +50 as late as October 2016, so not everyone thought it was going to be a blowout.

Also, this time around, no one is going to get "bit" again, the bookies learned their lessons good in 2016 to follow the fake news narratives (in fact, everyone in all facets of life has dumped the fake news narratives except for a few illogical intellectual dinosaurs).

Bernie is going to lose that magical 5% of moderates which usually tip elections one way or another.

CR ... Paddy Power isn’t the only one that got “it” wrong in 2016. They pretty much all did. Gotta love the way so many love to cite how wrong the polls were for that election - but then tout the polls that favor their view today.

As I said: it’s early.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

CR ... Paddy Power isn’t the only one that got “it” wrong in 2016. They pretty much all did. Gotta love the way so many love to cite how wrong the polls were for that election - but then tout the polls that favor their view today.

As I said: it’s early.

lol, no one is "citing polls", except people who like to be wrong.

We'll see soon bud, better leave your predictions here, all time stamped of course.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

lol, no one is "citing polls", except people who like to be wrong.

We'll see soon bud, better leave your predictions here, all time stamped of course.

I don’t make taunting sophomoric predictions, CR. You do.

And LOTS of people of all persuasions cite polls all the time.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

I don’t make taunting sophomoric predictions, CR. You do.

And LOTS of people of all persuasions cite polls all the time.

It'll be okay Tulemutt. Elections are just a scrimmage. The winner isn't important, it's about how we move forward.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

It'll be okay Tulemutt. Elections are just a scrimmage. The winner isn't important, it's about how we move forward.

Pretty much. Homo sapiens were doing fine until the Neolith. Scrambling toward self-extinction ever since. One day it’ll be over and peace will prevail

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

Pretty much. Homo sapiens were doing fine until the Neolith.

Except for the fact that getting a fractured leg, or an infected wound, would mean starvation or a slow, painful, death.

[Tulemutt]

Interesting recent historical perspective:

Our party “seems all too anxious to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and we will do the same if we nominate” an extremist for our presidential candidate. Moderates “represent the most electable area of the party.” This is not a contemporary pundit or some Democratic Party operative warning about the potential nomination of avowed Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders. It was the moderate Republican Representative John Anderson warning about the nomination of Ronald Reagan in 1980.

...

The truth is that issues and ideology have no real value in predicting the outcome of a presidential election. For decades, Democrats thought they had solved the electability puzzle by regularly nominating moderate and experienced candidates such as Michael Dukakis in 1988, Al Gore in 2000, John Kerry in 2004, and Hillary Clinton in 2016. But what these candidates have in common is that they would all lose to the Republican nominee.

Only unconventional “off the wall” Democrats have won the presidency in the last five decades. Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama were unknown figures outside the party establishment. All had been considered unelectable at one time by pundits and party operatives. Republicans also fared no better with the moderate presidential candidates in recent years. John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 lost to Obama. Republicans only regained the presidency with the unconventional Trump in 2016.

There is more than history as well. Current polling shatters the myth that a moderate candidate is more electable than Sanders.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign...s-is-electable

Kamala just wasn’t ‘crazy’ enough it seems.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

Except for the fact that getting a fractured leg, or an infected wound, would mean starvation or a slow, painful, death.

Kinda like the suffering of our many contemporary non-communicable ‘lifestyle’ diseases, eh? Heart disease, diabetes, COPD ... et al.