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No, we will not stop comparing the Chinese CV to the flu. The flu is common but kills lots of people and we don't shut down the economy every single year when flu season arrives.
Everyone understands it is not the same thing, but it is similar in impact with regard to death rate, and more people get the flu than Ebola in the US.
I don't ever recall opening the Javits Center or hospital ships during the flu season.
We definitely dodged a bullet with Ebola, we were lucky.
Koala - the problem with that math is you're using the reported infection rate - a number that is certainly wrong. The new % death estimates are based on lots of other data as well.
Reason 0.6% is still awful is because about 100M will be infected = 600,000 dead. Seem high? It probably is - probably.
But that "100M" number is the one that is being limited by the lockdown. Without these crazy measures, maybe it's 200M or 300M. Or maybe it peters out at 50M. Absolutely positively NO WAY to know right now, and every decision is a gamble.
For those that would rather "let it ride" - do you have anything except your gut and your 401K to gamble with? You definitely do not. It's completely possible that - doing nothing, removing the lockdowns - could kill millions. Yep, sounds crazy. Hype. Drama. I get it. But try some science on your end. What do you have that says it won't? Because no one - anywhere - has anything but "hope" - so if you have something besides that, please share. Otherwise, stay home.
Trump gives a brief every day to provide information. You and the leftist media are spinning it as fomenting fear. I would rather have it straight from the WH than any .. any leftist propaganda mill. Birx and Fauci are unassailable but I'm sure notable virologist Sean Penn is a close second.
The argument has been that the 'leftist media' is the one fomenting fear, but now you say that the 'leftist media' accuses Trump of fomenting fear.
Which is it? Just pick one claim and run with it. You lose credibility when you speak out of both sides of your mouth.
It seems obvious to me: Trump is fomenting fear, and uses the media to spread it.
the "flattened curve" was merely a visual - Birx said so - and not intended as an accurate representation. This is the same ? a reporter asked, and that was her answer.
The 2nd chart, which had a steep rise and a slow decline, was showing max effect in about 2 weeks, and then tailing off.
It seems the hope is we max out by mid-April, see a real 2 week trend downwards, have vastly improved numbers of tests, treatment efficacy ("experimental" drugs like HCQ under doctor control). Only THEN might we be able to start opening up May 1.
Best case assumes absolute compliance with social distancing and social gathering guidelines.
that's the relevant/scientific one - thanks for linking it.
For any who didn't watch the press conference, that's what our current, "most accurate" model is.
My layman's understanding - and please any scientist or person who heard better correct me -
The models take the information available, and project.
Until maybe even this Monday, the best info was what came from Europe. And so, the models for the US would have been based on that info.
Now, the model is relying more on the info from NY/NJ/CT, and presumably referencing it against Europe trend.
So, if NY/NJ get even worse than projected, the curve goes up - higher into the shaded area. If NY/NJ gets better than projected, then the curve goes down.
Putting the fatality rate aside, when was the last time 916 people died of the flu in a single day in the United States? That's how many people died of COVID in the U.S. yesterday.
Is that rough estimate somewhat like "15 and down to zero" or "going away magically in April"? Or is it closer to the 50K. 100K or 240K deaths?
I say no one has any idea. None.
If you make 10 different claims, one might end up being close to the truth.
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