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No one has defended the model that made the worst case assumption of an absence of any control measure and change in individual behavior.
CDC issued a “ guideline” for social distancing and gathering.
Most states have issued Stay at Home orders for non- essential functions, some sooner rather than later.
When people are posting, not a week ago now, about 200,000 deaths by the end of the month when actual reported deaths were nowhere near that number, that is, in fact, a de-facto statement of confidence in the outcome the model predicted. It is.
That's what this thread is about. Blind belief without any reality-based feedback loops. If this number was a foregone conclusion upon which we were basing current and future responses, and we ignored the giant chasm between it and reality, then what are we really doing? Are we shaping our response to fit the situation on the ground or are we shaping our response to fit a political agenda.
We are all paying for the incompetence of Democrat leadership in NYC and the always incompetent Democrat leadership in Mardi Gras New orleans.
Virginia has a Democrat governor who has shut down the state until June over 68 deaths.Governor Newsome in California proclaiming 25.5 million infected over 8 week period , actual number is around 25,000 A leftist media more concerned about bashing Trump than providing reliable information.
The terrible response of Democrat leadership in NYC just sums up this whole fiasco.
Democrats have destroyed Illinois as well, especially Chicago
I'm recalling a number in the hundreds of thousands just last week when we were all social-distancing and laughing at leftists demanding that capitalism be overthrown. LOL.
It's almost as if the democrat arm of the media treated CV like an extinction event in order to bring about a political outcome. I know you're mad that it failed, but fail it did. More people are going to die from smoking this year than the virus.
Quite the hyperbole and quite the dismissal of the virus. Sounds like Trump comparing this to a bad flu season, a visit to an ICU is in order, maybe you can use some of that logic on the families of the deceased.
Quite the hyperbole and quite the dismissal of the virus. Sounds like Trump comparing this to a bad flu season, a visit to an ICU is in order, maybe you can use some of that logic on the families of the deceased.
That wasn't me, that was the surgeon general's quote about smoking, professor. He's putting the virus in perspective now that reality has crushed all the hype.
When Trump touted the all back in church line for Easter....everyone at home went 'what?" -- no way.
It was an unrealistic statement. Everyone but Trump knew it.
This week end - the week before Easter his administration is now touting this as the start of the most devastating time for this virus. I thought that was overly dramatic.
But when you have these superlatives being thrown out -- you lose trust in what they are saying.
When people are posting, not a week ago now, about 200,000 deaths by the end of the month when actual reported deaths were nowhere near that number, that is, in fact, a de-facto statement of confidence in the outcome the model predicted. It is.
That's what this thread is about. Blind belief without any reality-based feedback loops. If this number was a foregone conclusion upon which we were basing current and future responses, and we ignored the giant chasm between it and reality, then what are we really doing? Are we shaping our response to fit the situation on the ground or are we shaping our response to fit a political agenda.
I think it is the latter.
But wasn't it Trump tellling us the original forecast was millions but because of social distancing it would be 100-200K.
So are you accusing Trump of over hyping now.
That's a problem-- he went from dismissing to over hyping. Maybe he should just shut up - -let the health experts report the numbers,......
When people are posting, not a week ago now, about 200,000 deaths by the end of the month when actual reported deaths were nowhere near that number, that is, in fact, a de-facto statement of confidence in the outcome the model predicted. It is.
That's what this thread is about. Blind belief without any reality-based feedback loops. If this number was a foregone conclusion upon which we were basing current and future responses, and we ignored the giant chasm between it and reality, then what are we really doing? Are we shaping our response to fit the situation on the ground or are we shaping our response to fit a political agenda.
I think it is the latter.
This post, as defined by the OP, is about 1.5-2 million worse case deaths projected by a few models based on an assumption of doing nothing.
The CDC issued the “ guidelines”. The rest was left to the states.
When Trump touted the all back in church line for Easter....everyone at home went 'what?" -- no way.
It was an unrealistic statement. Everyone but Trump knew it.
This week end - the week before Easter his administration is now touting this as the start of the most devastating time for this virus. I thought that was overly dramatic.
But when you have these superlatives being thrown out -- you lose trust in what they are saying.
Trump is not a statesman. He's not the best at wording things, but I think he was really trying to convey hope there, not draw an indelible line in the sand. You have to have conditions checks to make comparisons and make a decision from there.
I would've recommended Trump say.
We're marshaling all the help we can from the states and the private sector. In addition, we continue to gather information in conjunction with taking prudent actions, but, at this point, we don't know what we don't know. Around Easter, we'll look at all the data and make a determination on how to proceed going forward. I want everyone to enjoy the holiday, but I recommend you attend a service from the comfort of your own home. Don't risk getting infected. Until then, be smart, stay safe, and look out for each other.
Wonder how may would have been saved it he had acted back in January instead of being dismissive for the next two months.
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