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Biden and Harris just bungled The Ukranian situation, with Putin getting everything he wanted and we got nothing at all. We could have simply said that Russian occupation of the separatist regions would immediately trigger an offer of Ukrainian membership in NATO, making the Russians choose between land expansion vs a bigger and stronger NATO on thier doorstep. We ended up with nothing and Putin got everything.
So what happened?
1. Biden and Harris have shown again they are complete fools in foreign policy
2. Putin looks stronger and more competent
3. NATO looks weak in the eyes of the world
4. Nations adjacent to Russia know there is no protection from them and are at the mercy of Russia.
So who has learned the most form this disaster? CHINA
By bungling another foreign policy disaster, the US has essentially given China the green light to invade Taiwan. Appeasement, as Chamberlain found prior to WW2, only emboldens tyrants and never satiates them.
I swear you people are addicted to drama and sensationalism. China will not touch Taiwan.
China is waiting to see the outcome of the Russian military adventure in Ukraine.
China is looking for signs of how the Ukrainians fight against the Russian army. The initial battles will be the standard set piece units vs units, tanks vs tanks, fighter jets vs fighter jets, and so on. But once the Russian army won on the battlefields, it will be guerrilla warfare in the urban setting. This is where Taiwan comes in.
The Ukrainians have a history with firearms, the Taiwanese do not. While gun rights are not philosophically respected like the US Second Amendment, gun laws in Ukraine, for all reports so far, are quite permissive. The Taiwanese civilians do not have this experience, so the Taiwanese government is watching the Russia-Ukraine conflict as closely as China is watching.
If Russia win the guerrilla war, then China will invade Taiwan. Not in the next few yrs, but the mentality for an invasion will be even more attractive.
China is waiting to see the outcome of the Russian military adventure in Ukraine.
China is looking for signs of how the Ukrainians fight against the Russian army. The initial battles will be the standard set piece units vs units, tanks vs tanks, fighter jets vs fighter jets, and so on. But once the Russian army won on the battlefields, it will be guerrilla warfare in the urban setting. This is where Taiwan comes in.
The Ukrainians have a history with firearms, the Taiwanese do not. While gun rights are not philosophically respected like the US Second Amendment, gun laws in Ukraine, for all reports so far, are quite permissive. The Taiwanese civilians do not have this experience, so the Taiwanese government is watching the Russia-Ukraine conflict as closely as China is watching.
If Russia win the guerrilla war, then China will invade Taiwan. Not in the next few yrs, but the mentality for an invasion will be even more attractive.
China doesn't care one bit about how the Ukrainians fight against the Russian Army. They care about how the US reacts to any fighting. China is looking sqarely at the body occupying the White House.
If the US appears weak, China will go after Taiwan. If the US appears strong China will make a lot of noise, but in the end not do a thing.
Why wouldn’t they go after Taiwan?
China has an intellectual advantage over this administration.
Biden seems weak.
Name one bad group that respects the weak?
Nations do not conquer other nations through brute military force anymore. That is an outdated way of thinking. The world is far too globalized and interconnected for military conquest to be a viable option (the last time one sovereign nation invaded another was 19 years ago, and it was the US doing the invading). Nowadays, nations assert their dominance primarily economically/financially. This is exactly what China is attempting to do through the belt and road initiative.
In the past, one of the major motivators for military conquest was economic gain. Now, it's obvious to everyone that wars are abominably expensive, and always a money losing proposition.
I swear you people are addicted to drama and sensationalism. China will not touch Taiwan.
...im curious what you base that assertion on?..
... you may be right but i think in the not too distant future when the ccp also recognizes the donbass republics as russia has done and russia is onboard with the 'one china' policy, all bets are off...maybe china will not take taiwan but if they want to, there will be little the u.s. can do about it....we'll see...
China doesn't care one bit about how the Ukrainians fight against the Russian Army. They care about how the US reacts to any fighting. China is looking sqarely at the body occupying the White House.
If the US appears weak, China will go after Taiwan. If the US appears strong China will make a lot of noise, but in the end not do a thing.
And I disagree.
The modern PLA have no combat experience. The ones in the rank-and-file who does have combat experience go all the way back to the Sino-Vietnam border war of 1979 where the PLA did not performed as expected and essentially were driven back by a militia force, and these old soldiers retired. The PLA observed Desert Storm and after that war ended, the PLA modernized in the mold of the US military. If you look at the PLA today, it has US signatures all over.
The US does not need to fight with Taiwan in order for Taiwan to make occupation life miserable and bloody for China. That mean the PLA must take Taiwan in short order. Back in Desert Storm, the air campaign lasted 30 days, then land war began. The PLA plan will be something similar but the problem here is the strait crossing by the amphibious fleet. If Taiwan managed to do serious damage to that fleet, any landing will end in disaster, which mean a Taiwanese independence will effectively be permanent. So for the US, the policy will be to make Taiwan a porcupine. Even feeble minded Biden will authorize that arms policy.
China took Hong Kong back but you guys don't think they would try to take Taiwan? To answer OP, I don't think the communists will be too worried.
The better question is what would happen if they took the Senkaku islands.
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