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There initial attack failed I don't see this one going much better. Putin is using draftees and mercenaries. Draftees have been complaining about the lack of training. Just like Ukraine they've been running low in artillery. They simply don't have the logistics. A large scale attack can also fail on a large scale.
Support for war has been shrinking in Russia. Unless he sees success in days not much different will happen.
Meanwhile, Russia is ignoring Armenia’s growing frustration with a month-long blockade at a critical passageway by Azerbaijani forces. Is it difficult to fight two different fights simultaneously? This one could blow soon and Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan know Russia is weakening and busy with other “issues”.
Chechnya, too.
Even though Chechens are fighting in the war, Chechnya itself would jump a the chance to become independent. Their last rebellion was brutally crushed and a lot of Chechens will remember that.
My hope is Russia becomes too impoverished to exert control over its republics and the devolve into territories with their own interests. Russia, meanwhile would continue to shrink economically and demographically to the point they only control the Volga and its tributaries along with St Petersburgh.
A civil war in Russia doesn't appear to be on the horizon. But I can sure see how it might happen under the right circumstances.
Putin wants to emulate Hitler and wonders why nobody likes him. Well, Kim and Xi do like him. They are like-minded dictators after all. He is reportedly depressed, as more mysterious fires rage inside Russia.
NATO was unable to defeat goat herders in sandals who were wearing wet blankets to defeat thermal vision. Now what do you think would happen in a peer to peer war ?
NATO does not have the ability to defeat Russia in Eastern Europe ans was never meant to. It was meant to contain Russia east of Germany and cannot deploy to full capability in Ukraine or Russia. This proxy war is to the West's benefit, not Ukraine's.
France would lose to Russia both in conventional and nuclear war. The UK would fare better, being an island and all.
People pushing for WW3 are completely irresponsible. The safest course of action would be to pull back and let the Slavic peoples sort it out. An escalation would be a disaster for everyone but the elites.
NATO defeated the Taliban in a matter of weeks with only minor help to the Northern Alliance.
We just couldn't destroy them and after 20 years realized that. We got tired of the drain on resources and left Afghanistan to the Afghans to sort out.
NATO's Air Force would eradicate the Russian Navy, Air Force and much of their army in a few months. Ukraine's victory is necessary to stop Russian adventurism in Moldova and testing NATO in the Baltics or Hungary. Trying to take Moscow or occupying Russia would be an entirely different matter and much more difficult.
They've been attacking from the east since the start of the war and the territory they have gained since the early weeks of the war can be measured in meters. We all know what happened last time they attacked from Belarus. And they have lost ground in the South.
Russia may try. Doesn't mean they will succeed in anything but filling military graveyards in Russia.
NATO defeated the Taliban in a matter of weeks with only minor help to the Northern Alliance.
We just couldn't destroy them and after 20 years realized that. We got tired of the drain on resources and left Afghanistan to the Afghans to sort out.
NATO's Air Force would eradicate the Russian Navy, Air Force and much of their army in a few months. Ukraine's victory is necessary to stop Russian adventurism in Moldova and testing NATO in the Baltics or Hungary. Trying to take Moscow or occupying Russia would be an entirely different matter and much more difficult.
NATO was fighting an extremist groups that places religion and the afterlife over all else. They don't mind dying. And there is always another crop regenerating to take on the fight. That's why the idea of the USA concurring Afghanistan doesn't make sense unless we plan to permanently make it the 51st state or a territory of the USA. As soon as a we leave, the fanatics exit the caves and topple whatever fragile government we put up. Totally different culture. Most Americans cannot wrap their minds around that level of fanaticism, where the fighters literally do not fear death (and welcome it in some cases).
Russia luckily is not filled with people like that. I would suspect most Russians highly question the point of this war and are critical of it.
Highly decorated, enlisted, Legion of Merit, Joint Service Commendation Medal and the Navy/Marine Corps Commendation Medal (among others). 15 years of active service and wife with 4 kids. We’ve seen the “typical” background for the mercenary that is assisting Ukraine forces. Quite different here.
Maybe more details come out down the road….
There initial attack failed I don't see this one going much better. Putin is using draftees and mercenaries. Draftees have been complaining about the lack of training. Just like Ukraine they've been running low in artillery. They simply don't have the logistics. A large scale attack can also fail on a large scale.
Support for war has been shrinking in Russia. Unless he sees success in days not much different will happen.
I think everybody expected Ukraine to be beaten fairly quickly and sue for peace, giving Putin favorable terms.
I don't think Putin expected the entire world to oppose him with the financial and military aid Ukraine is getting world wide.
I vaguely remember how the Finns resisted the Soviet invasion in World War 2, with intelligence information from MI-5 and the OSS. You just know that the Ukrainian military is getting direct intelligence from the Biden Administration, CIA, NSA, US Army Intelligence, etc. They have to be.
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