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Ukrainian officials are continuing to warn about Russia’s intention of conducting a decisive offensive operation in Donbas in February and/or March, supporting ISW’s most likely course of action assessment (MLCOA). Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov stated on February 1 that Ukraine is on the eve of an active phase of combat that will take place over the next two months. Yusov noted that the poor state of Russian military equipment will force the Russian military command to mass forces to outnumber Ukrainian defenders in order to make gains. Ukrainian Colonel Serhiy Hrabskyi stated that Russia does not have sufficient forces to conduct an attack along the entire 1,500km frontline in Ukraine and will concentrate its efforts on seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. A prominent Russian milblogger observed that the prospect of a Russian offensive operation does not appear to be triggering panic among Ukrainian forces, who are continuing to build out their counteroffensive plans. ISW reported on January 31 that Ukrainian military officials reiterated their intent to launch major counteroffensive operations by summer 2023.
In the USSR times their Army was around 3.5 - 4 mln, today they would be able to collect 3 mln without much effort, at least 2 mln would be fully equpped on short notice, then they can declare 'emergency' with 24/7 the whole country mobilization ( military and industry) similar to 1941-1945. I don't think anyone can beat Russia in that mode.
They weren't willing to pay the price in Afghanistan, just as they weren't in WWI in which they were the first to lose.
They haven't been able to properly train the 200,000 new recruits.
They are just going to increase their demographic problems by killing off a bunch of young Russian men in prime reproductive age while causing others to flee the country.
Meanwhile they are using up equipment that they simply cannot replace as fast as it is being destroyed.
And even Stalin admitted, they would not likely have defeated Germany without the massive American equipment supplies.
I wonder at what point Putin will realize he can't defeat Ukraine and what he will do? LBJ knew he could not eradicate the Viet Cong and stop North Vietnam without taking steps he considered too risky for Chinese involvement, yet he continued to send more American soldiers into the meat grinder.
Yes, that is one reason why Russia is not fighting with all or even the majority of their forces. They have to be ready everywhere with enough troops to handle any contingency in any part of their big country that NATO could take advantage of if it wasn't covered. Nevertheless, the 300,000 to 500,000 Russian forces that we have been discussing are poised for use in Ukraine and not anywhere else.
It was not exactly my point, rather historical MO. E.g. some force stationed in Belorussia and more can be brought from North and East of Russia on very short notice, we may not even know it exists.
It was not exactly my point, rather historical MO. E.g. some force stationed in Belorussia and more can be brought from North and East of Russia on very short notice, we may not even know it exists.
Yes, that is true. But the Russians already have enough troops that are allocated for use in Ukraine without needing to move troops from other areas of their country with the exception of Belarus. And Belarus already borders Ukraine.
They weren't willing to pay the price in Afghanistan, just as they weren't in WWI in which they were the first to lose.
They haven't been able to properly train the 200,000 new recruits.
They are just going to increase their demographic problems by killing off a bunch of young Russian men in prime reproductive age while causing others to flee the country.
Meanwhile they are using up equipment that they simply cannot replace as fast as it is being destroyed.
And even Stalin admitted, they would not likely have defeated Germany without the massive American equipment supplies.
I wonder at what point Putin will realize he can't defeat Ukraine and what he will do? LBJ knew he could not eradicate the Viet Cong and stop North Vietnam without taking steps he considered too risky for Chinese involvement, yet he continued to send more American soldiers into the meat grinder.
I agree. If Russia was going to win this war, they would have done it in the first month as everyone in the world was predicting. The longer Ukraine held out, the more support they got from other countries. Ukraine is a much stronger military threat today than they were last March. OTOH, Russia is weaker.
Ukraine sucker punched Russia when Ukraine pretended they were going to have trouble getting Kherson back and would have to attack a bit farther north. Then they attacked at Kherson and Russians ran. All this talk about how the Ukrainians are afraid of a massive Russian push reminds me of that.
Russia is doing absolutely everything they can. There is no "larger army" to be had; no "hundreds of thousands of army recruits".
Ukraine is wise to push for everything they will need for the next 10 years. Their border must never be left unguarded.
Reminds me old Soviet joke from Vietnam War era.
Note from Moscow to No.Vietnam: we had a poor harvest this year, so, tighten the belts.
Note back to Moscow: ship the belts...
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