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Maybe.
At one time the Portuguese had the largest empire in the world. They probably thought things would never change.
Russia is suffering an economic decline at the same time they are suffering a serious demographic decline.
That's a pretty strong combination and has never been seen before - not ever in history. Russian universities are enrolling fewer students, fewer children are being born, the more educated Russians are leaving the country, and the young men are being killed in a war of Russia's own choosing. Demographers tell us that, once started, a demographic decline like the one in Russia will never end.
The US will not begin its population decline for another 75 years, say these experts. Maybe more. I think it is inevitable that at some point Russia simply will not matter.
Before someone says "I wouldn't trust Russian ministry numbers." Are we to trust U.S. and British numbers. Reuters does a good job of fair and balanced reporting. Besides it's not the only one reporting how the sanctions have failed.
Russia is a great power and has the ability to influence world events. A country with nuclear weapons, strong military, insane amounts of natural resources, and is a top agriculture producer. It will never "simply not matter."
The Russian offensive near Kupiansk is moving forward again and gaining ground. Ukraine is considering ordering a mandatory evacuation of 53 settlements including Kupiansk.
One of those pesky issues - the tendency of Russian governments to subjugate the people whose territory they take / annex / steal.
Whereas under the Republican form of government, the people of any newly admitted state rise to "sovereigns without subjects." (Chisholm v Georgia). Under the republican form, governments are servants, not masters.
That is anathema to any autocrat, despot, warlord, or ambitious politician.
Of course, if one consents to be a subject serf, no harm - no foul.
A Ukrainian Priest is being sentenced to prison for 5 years and having his property seized by the state for allegedly being sympathetic to Russia. He is claiming he is not guilty.
Ukraine is free to join NATO if it wants to. It’s up to NATO to accept. But any country has the right to apply for NATO membership.
And it's Cuba's right to have military agreements with other countries. So why is the Biden Administration crapping its pants telling China we'd consider it a problem if they make a military base in Cuba?
Meanwhile, Syria keeps requesting that the US move its military base out of Syria, but we control most of their oil and wheat production and that is too easy to take and give to others.
There are also a handful of countries asking the US to stop flying drones over its airspace and/or doing strikes in its territory. It's okay, we're the good guys.
The strength of a country's economy is reflected in the exchange rate of its currency. In the case of Russia, the ruble has virtually collapsed when measured against all major currencies.
Most people will agree that, in this case, the dollar and Euro are less important than yuan and rupee because most of Russia's trade is now with China and India.
At the beginning of the war, Russia had a large storehouse of those two currencies, but many months have passed and now they have used up their supply. The only way to continue trade is for Russia to buy more yuan and rupee.
The yuan is at a five year high, meaning Chinese companies can demand a LOT of ruble for their products and that means trouble for Russia who imports a vast array of products from China. China, for its part, has refused to accede to Putin's demand that oil payment be made in ruble. China pays in yuan and that drives up the value of the yuan.
Same with rupee.
The Russian economy is collapsing and will result in huge inflation numbers with imported products becoming prohibitively expensive or even unavailable. The Russian government hopes to hide this fact from view, but increasingly is no longer able to do so.
US helped engineer removal of Pakistan Prime Minister due to his neutral stance on Russia invading Ukraine. He is locked up for 3 years. Some Pakistanis are protesting and want their former PM released.
This is not a proxy war, it's about democracy! We need to attack another country's internal democracy to save Ukraine's internal democracy from ethnic Russians wanting to break off!
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