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nope. Goes back to my last post even. Feel free to go figure Wake Co population age ranges, use NC % of cases, model it out, and report back.
Or simply, say 1.1MM x 7% positive max (as we test more, the % gos down, 7% is a max) = 77,000 positives (1/5 of current NY). 5% hospitalization = 3,850. 2% ICU = 1,540. ~24% death rate in ICU = 370 deaths.
That's all worst case, unless you want to find and use different figures.
What? In your previous post you said:
"The rate of infection in Wake County is 0.1% - one-tenth of 1%; 1 person in every thousand have been infected so far..."
(Again, unless every resident of Wake County was tested, you don't have any idea how many people are, or have been, infected.)
Now you seem to be claiming that 7% of Wake County residents have it? (77,000 people is not one tenth of 1% of 1,100,000.) So which is it?
BTW, the max rate for positive tests in NC is 13%, not 7%, and the most recent percentage is 8%. It was as high as 10% last Friday.
Unless every resident of Wake County has been tested then you don't know what the infection rate is and your statistic is meaningless.
If we keep testing Wake County residents, and 7% of the tests keep coming back positive, then that's a pretty good indicator of the number of Wake County residents with Covid-19. Do we survey every single American to get the President's approval rating?
In a perfect world, we would be testing everyone every single day (and isolating those who test positive), but realistically that's not feasible at this point.
you've gone so far poorly, I'll just say that 7% of 1,100,000 (population of Wake County) is 77,000. There's no opinion or stat-choosing in that - just basic math.
As to the rest, if you want to use NYC numbers to counter me - feel free. Give us a REALLY worst case.
having been a "we need to test every single person" guy, I've now come to realize that's not necessary (and this is from what the experts say).
How many times does everyone that chooses get vaccinated for the flu each year? Once? Monthly? Daily?
If you think you got the flu, how often do you test? If you test negative, and the doc still sends you home with Z-Pac ... do you go back the next day?
you've gone so far poorly, I'll just say that 7% of 1,100,000 (population of Wake County) is 77,000. There's no opinion or stat-choosing in that - just basic math.
As to the rest, if you want to use NYC numbers to counter me - feel free. Give us a REALLY worst case.
And 77,000 isn't one tenth of 1% of 1.1 million.
I guess you never took a statistics class at cow college.
"NYC numbers"? "You've gone so far poorly"? I literally don't know what you're talking about.
I use Facebook but mainly for some interest groups (nothing extremist by any stretch of the imagination). I'm a big proponent of finding tools to customize my social media experiences like cutting out ads, stopping recommendations, blocking any mention of certain topics (politics is one of them), trimming away most of Facebook flotsam. There are lots of tech tools out there and I run multiple ones: browser plug-ins, ad blockers, privacy, etc.
Literally no 'Russian bot' will reach me because I block everything I can. I even have elements of C-D blocked so I see a minimalist design. Anything that moves, any carousel of rotating pics -- instant blockage.
If we keep testing Wake County residents, and 7% of the tests keep coming back positive, then that's a pretty good indicator of the number of Wake County residents with Covid-19. Do we survey every single American to get the President's approval rating?
In a perfect world, we would be testing everyone every single day (and isolating those who test positive), but realistically that's not feasible at this point.
the confusion continues. Is it OK that I literally - and I do mean LITERALLY - lol'd at someone on their 3rd username in a year calling someone else a troll?
For NC, I'm using NCDHHS data. If you've found Wake County testing/demographic data - I've been looking for it myself, so I'm sue we'd all appreciate your contribution.
The highest case rate testing EVERYBODY we would expect (it has gone down on average over time) is 7%. You're talking about testing every single person in NC after all. So far, they've been testing symptomatic, front-liners, crowded employers, congregate living, and the anxious/curious.
You want to use a higher %? Go for it, just tell us how you chose the number, and extrapolate away.
I guess you never took a statistics class at cow college.
"NYC numbers"? "You've gone so far poorly"? I literally don't know what you're talking about.
I just want to make sure to quote this, so you can't erase it.
Wherever you got your highest level of math, if they didn't teach you how to use a calculator, please let the rest of us know so we can steer our children elsewhere.
77,000/1,100,000 = 7% every day, and twice on Sundays.
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