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I KNOW with certainty that a 2 headed coin will come up heads if flipped.
If the coin has a heads and a tails then I dont know what it will come up as but I KNOW the probability is 50/50.
If I have 3 coins in my pocket, one with 2 heads, another with 2 tails, and another with one head and one tail and I pull one out at random and, without looking at it, flip it then I dont know the probability but I still KNOW the bayesian probability is 50/50.
The coin is either heads or tails but the Bayesian probability (the degree to which you expect it to be heads) can take a value anywhere from 0 to 100%
The coin is either heads or tails but the Bayesian probability (the degree to which you expect it to be heads) can take a value anywhere from 0 to 100%
Originally Posted by wallflash At the end of it all , the question still remains . Why do some people insist on calling a disbelief or lack of belief in something a " belief"?
To requote sanspeurs excellent analogy, it's like considering not collecting stamps a hobby .
It's not my analogy....It has been around for a long time....
I KNOW with certainty that a 2 headed coin will come up heads if flipped.
If the coin has a heads and a tails then I dont know what it will come up as but I KNOW the probability is 50/50.
If I have 3 coins in my pocket, one with 2 heads, another with 2 tails, and another with one head and one tail and I pull one out at random and, without looking at it, flip it then I dont know the probability but I still KNOW the bayesian probability is 50/50.
I m not sure why you keep emphasizing Baysian here, these are all a priori probabilities, Bayes' Theorem doesn't come into play at any of these scenarios.
If you were to withdraw one of your three coins, and without seeing which coin it is, flip a heads, you could use Bayes' Theorem to calculate the odds that the next coin would also be heads, given the result of the first flip.
Honestly, from your posts it appears that you have little to no experience with the statistics and are simply trying to use it philosophically without understanding the mathematics at play here. You wouldn't be the first to do so, and definitely not the last, but that doesn't change the fact that trying to deal with the philosophical implications of complex mathematics without a firm grasp of the mathematics often leads to absurdity.
The point is that it is a Bayesian probability and not a probability.
The probability is unknown
It is just a probability until you are conditioning it on some other outcome.
There is no "Baysian probablity" of a single coin flip. You either need multiple trials or multiple events.
Again, you should probably not hang your philosophical hat on math you don't understand. Statistics and Random Processes was not my best course in grad school, and I certainly am no statistician. So, if I can see that what you are proposing makes no sense, it is pretty clear you are way off the mark here.
I KNOW with certainty that a 2 headed coin will come up heads if flipped.
If the coin has a heads and a tails then I dont know what it will come up as but I KNOW the probability is 50/50.
If I have 3 coins in my pocket, one with 2 heads, another with 2 tails, and another with one head and one tail and I pull one out at random and, without looking at it, flip it then I dont know the probability but I still KNOW the bayesian probability is 50/50.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoCapo
It is just a probability until you are conditioning it on some other outcome.
There is no "Baysian probablity" of a single coin flip. You either need multiple trials or multiple events.
Again, you should probably not hang your philosophical hat on math you don't understand. Statistics and Random Processes was not my best course in grad school, and I certainly am no statistician. So, if I can see that what you are proposing makes no sense, it is pretty clear you are way off the mark here.
-NoCapo
the probability for that particular coin is unknown.
it might be 0 or 50 or 100 percent
why is that so hard for you to understand?
if the probability is unknown then the probability isnt 50/50
the bayesian probability is 50/50
bayesian probability is different from probability
bayesian probability quantifies the degree to which you expect something to happen
Last edited by mensaguy; 04-06-2016 at 02:59 PM..
Reason: Fixed quote tag
Honestly, from your posts it appears that you have little to no experience with the statistics and are simply trying to use it philosophically without understanding the mathematics at play here.
Precisely .
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