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Old 09-27-2022, 07:00 PM
 
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Recent Tweet (about 20 minutes ago) from Dr. Levi Cowan at TropicalTidbits:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/...21373071577089

"Hurricane #Ian's outer eyewall has contracted from ~90 miles to ~60 miles wide during the past 6 hours, and the inner eyewall is beginning to disintegrate. Unfortunately, a quick completion of this eyewall replacement could lead to additional intensification prior to landfall."
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Old 09-27-2022, 07:42 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read View Post
This guy has good graphs and visuals
His accent is little rough but think the LZ has shifted to Sarasota Charlotte county line—which is south of Venice
I don’t know if that helps that much with the rain predicted
But this guy’s update shows how the eye is broken by dry air coming in
And points out that projections show it gathering strength inland over Orlando—

https://youtu.be/xzsxUtF4BCQ

We are in Port St Lucie and their local news is full of hurricane prep too
Tornados in the area
So no place in FL is exactly taking a walk on the beach anywhere except maybe the panhandle this time
Way it's wobbling it could be Sanibel or even Ft. Myers beach.

Here is a good site with the NHC forecast track overlapping the radar.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/...her-conditions
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Old 09-27-2022, 08:10 PM
 
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Kind of surprising that it seems not a large amount of people in Sarasota County are evacuating to shelters:

9:03 p.m. | Sarasota officials urge those in RVs and mobile homes to evacuate

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/...da/8122306001/

Sarasota County Emergency Management Chief Ed McCrane urged Sarasota County mobile home residents and those who live in RVs to evacuate in a Tuesday evening press briefing.

“If you have a family, don’t risk yourself and your family’s life by staying in a trailer, in a mobile home, in a camper, and trying to ride this out and hope it goes somewhere else,” he said.

He noted that people should either stay with someone they know or should go to an evacuation center. He said those without a computer or internet access can find evacuation center locations by calling 311.

He estimated that people have until 1 a.m. or 2 a.m. to evacuate.

“But once those winds get to 45 miles per hour sustained, you don’t want to go anywhere,” he said. “We don’t send emergency vehicles out when it gets to 45.”

McCrane told media outlets that 1,765 people were in the county’s 12 evacuation centers, though that number keeps changing. Those centers can each hold a couple of thousand people.

“There should be a lot more people at this time in these evacuation centers,” he said.
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Old 09-27-2022, 09:44 PM
 
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https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/...her-conditions

Great radar loop with track over it.

Technically NHC 11pm has landfall in Lee County first. Storm keeps moving to the right. Also seems to be moving still. I wouldn't be shocked if landfall is further south in Lee County around Sanibel. Would mean less wind and surge for Charlotte County, but the places like Ft. Myers Beach, Estero, Bonita will get the worst.

Landfall might be much earlier in the day too.
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Old 09-27-2022, 10:20 PM
 
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MOforthewin, I get "Permission denied" on your link above. I wonder why?


I believe this is your link? https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/...her-conditions
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Old 09-28-2022, 03:50 AM
 
Location: Southwestern, USA, now.
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Wow, Wed afternoon hitting Ft. Meyers...the latest update!
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Old 09-28-2022, 03:53 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SanyBelle View Post
MOforthewin, I get "Permission denied" on your link above. I wonder why?


I believe this is your link? https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/...her-conditions
Yep! Looks like venice might get strongest part of eyewall and i might just get cat1 and 2 winds here in punta gorda. Western eyewall has the cat4 winds.if it takes nhc path thr local news simulators have a surge of 0 to 3 feet around me.

Hopefully power doesnt go out for long.
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Old 09-28-2022, 05:59 AM
 
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It would be helpful when people post an update if they list where they saw/heard that info—

Anyone in Nokomis/Venice area now?
What are you seeing/hearing?

We are in Port St. Lucie—their weather was showing some pop up tornados—think one might have touched down for few seconds but nothing major until I went to sleep about midnight
Today out our hotel window more rain came down but didn’t hear it raining—room seems pretty insulated unless it is coming into window
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Old 09-28-2022, 06:04 AM
 
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Live cam from Ft. Myers beach, at least for now:
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/we...ers-beach.html
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Old 09-28-2022, 07:30 AM
 
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Tweet from Levi at TropicalTidbits from about 50 minutes ago. See the map here:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/...02530073554945

"Recon data indicates that Hurricane #Ian has continued intensifying and now has maximum winds of at least 155 mph. Catastrophic 12-16 ft storm surge is now expected from Bonita Beach to Englewood. Truly awful situation unfolding here."
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