Tropical Depression Nine forms, the Suncoast is in the cone (Orlando: hotel, homes)

[wondermint2]

I just got this Email from FPL. Hopefully the power outages won't be severe.

"Our restoration workforce is in place and ready to respond as Hurricane Ian impacts Florida. This storm’s high winds and heavy rain are expected to damage power lines and equipment, causing outages.

In times of extreme weather, our process changes in how we handle large scale outages. During the restoration, you will receive one daily email update about the restoration progress in place of personalized outage alerts. For the most up-to-date information about your account and to track outages, visit our website or download the FPL Mobile App.

We understand how much you depend on electricity. Rest assured, our crews will work around the clock to restore service safely and as quickly as possible."

[wondermint2]

Illustration comparing Hurricane Charlie to Hurricane Ian:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/sta...55197406117888

"Great illustration by Kim. #Ian is larger than Charley, and will be moving slower, so inland wind impacts may not be quite as extreme, but felt over a larger area, and flooding could be more significant as well."

[loves2read]

Originally Posted by newtovenice

It's higher, OK. What does that mean? How far inland? Does it go 1 mile inland at 9 feet?

Nobody can tell you with certainty what will happen

Are you on the beach or bay, on a live water canal?
Our SIL has condo that is on Venice Island right across Esplanade from Venice Beach—second floor—
There are condos even closer to water on other side of Esplanade
They are in real danger zone

[loves2read]

Originally Posted by graceC

I just got a text from Sarasota County. They are now ordering Zone B to evacuate too.

Yep

[loves2read]

Originally Posted by newtovenice

I've never heard any explanation of storm surge that makes sense or actually explains what it actually means.

Does the water come inland 9 feet more (distance) or rise 9 feet higher (height)? If it rises 9 feet higher, how far inland does that go? Is it caused by rain or wind or tide?

After hurricanes I try to find examples of storm surge and the corresponding damage, and find nothing.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/
Storm surge explanation

[wondermint2]

4:35 p.m. | City of Venice to shut off water to the island of Venice at 8 p.m. tonight

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/...da/8122306001/

As of Tuesday afternoon, Sarasota County has issued evacuations for residents living in zones A and B.

For Venice, that means much of the island of Venice, particularly along Venice Beach and the northern coast east of Venice Inlet.

Venice Assistant City Manager James Clinch said the city is coordinating with Sarasota County on evacuations, getting medically dependent people evacuated and publicizing the evacuation rally point at the Venice Community Center, 326 Nokomis Ave. S., though not as many people have been showing up as anticipated.

Buses from there are taking people to Taylor Ranch Elementary School.

Even residences on higher ground on the island could be uncomfortable places to ride out Ian, Clinch said, since the city plans to turn off water service for the island at 8 p.m. Tuesday, until the storm passes.

In fact, water will be shut off to all barrier islands in Sarasota and Manatee counties this evening, including Siesta Key, Casey Key, Lido Key, Longboat Key, Anna Maria Island and more.

“It’s really important to get that infrastructure protected by isolating it,” Clinch said. “It’s not intended to get people to leave; what it’s intended for is to protect the system so the rest of the community can keep using the water system.”

[loves2read]

From poster on the Hurricane Forum on Weather page
Makes me sick at my stomach—


Euro12z wind gusts


Looks like 8-12 hours of 100mph+ wind gusts in Venice.


Euro showing 142mph gust between 2-8pm. Doesn't mean the entire time, just the max gust between those hours


Image: https://i.imgur.com/nXKoMhY.jpg

[MOforthewin]

I'm in Punta Gorda. Right by I75, just down the street is the EOC center, Airport and Sheriffs Office where FPL has a staging area. Neighbors are all staying including most on my street. Homes are 8-10 feet above sea level but we are on the border of A/B. Hoping I don't get a couple feet of water in the house.

I know they've wanted for awhile now to get the flood rating changed due to all the filler land and such over the years but it's a long process I was told.

Tried booking a hotel room for tomorrow and no one within 100 miles has one. I have family in Naples who said I can stay with them but they will get the surge too. Tampa area I do too but they get a lot of flooding around them and predicting 20 inches of rain up there.

Eyewall replacement is starting. This will probably limit it to a 130mph but will spread out hurricane force winds to a larger area.

Most around here if they were not shopping for supplies today were out and about eating at the establishments that didn't close early.

[graceC]

The trajectory has shifted further south, closer to Sarasota and Charlotte county line:

The city of Venice in Sarasota was earlier projected as the Category 3 hurricane likely location for touching the Florida mainland. But the trajectory is now taking the storm packing 120 m.p.h. winds a bit further south, according to the National Hurricane Center.

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/ne...es/8123551001/

[loves2read]

This guy has good graphs and visuals
His accent is little rough but think the LZ has shifted to Sarasota Charlotte county line—which is south of Venice
I don’t know if that helps that much with the rain predicted
But this guy’s update shows how the eye is broken by dry air coming in
And points out that projections show it gathering strength inland over Orlando—

https://youtu.be/xzsxUtF4BCQ

We are in Port St Lucie and their local news is full of hurricane prep too
Tornados in the area
So no place in FL is exactly taking a walk on the beach anywhere except maybe the panhandle this time