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The latest today
The most prominent Chinese specialist of infectious diseases academician Lin Lanjuan tells that:
That the epidemic is still on the rise, but expect it to start subsiding in about a month- within 2 maximum incubation periods- 14x2.
They try to track all contacts of sickened people: currently more than 24 thousands.
3 medical doctors from Beijing are infected after their individual trips to Wuhan- in some incubation period was just 4 days.
A few of prominent Universities epidemiologists are infected, but so far in a mild form
The youngest patients who died iare 2 y o, next one is 36 y o, then 48 y o.
They don’t know if it is getting stronger or weaker, too early to tell
Right now is not as lethal as MERS or Avian flu, but still too early to tell
He praises the closing of the roads and isolating the cities, says the society as a whole should not panic and be honest and not to hide if they traveled or had contacts with someone from Wuhan- the most important.
A lot of recovered people and people with fever who did not have 2019-nCov- guess that they decided to call the latest novel corona virus
Li Lanjuan expects that the infection will spread in other countries as well No source of infection is determined according to ECDC - European CDC- so they warn that the source might still be active.
China is still not doing what they need to do, to stop transmission. They need to close the schools, universities, factories, all public gathering places. If they shut EVERYTHING down for three weeks, and imposed a curfew, with people only allowed out to buy food, and then only one person per household, only once every few days, while gloved and masked, they could stop this. But they're unwilling to do it (although interestingly, Hong Kong, which is NOT under the control of the Communist Party, just announced that they're closing schools for the next three weeks, at least). And very, very soon, like within days, it will be too late. But China has a population of a billion, and too many old people for the young to support. Perhaps the Communist Party thinks that this will be the solution to their huge population bulge of elderly, since mostly it is the older people who have died.
It will likely be very much like the H1N1 flu, or the Spanish flu. Three months of activity in a region, with about 3 weeks build, 6 weeks of intense activity, and 3 weeks tapering off, until enough of the population has become immune to prevent transmission.
If it gets out here, I just hope there will be enough workers able to keep the utilities running. Pity anyone in need of medical care.
He does not look credible at all...Just because he has a Ding as his last name does not mean that he has the whole Ding-Dong regarding what is going on in China with 2019-nCov..
He keeps correcting his earlier speculations..
The opportunists are using the bad situation to increase they following...
He was in the US too long - knows how to keep the attention of the gullible public: just use the fear factor..
He is not a Harvard epidemiologist- he says he taught at Harvard! Could be a Chinese language or literature for all we know.(sarcasm)
This sounds more like what is probably going on. Based upon the number of cases showing up across the world, the rate of infection is likely far, far higher than what the Chinese government is admitting. 32 cases abroad, but only under 2000 in China. Very unlikely that 32 different travelers could have come in contact with the new coronavirus, if only 2000 people in China were infected. Seems more likely that hundreds of thousands, or even more, are infected.
Now, that could be good news, because if hundreds of thousands are infected, but not seeking medical attention, and only the very sickest are seeking medical attention, and only very few of them are dying, then this new virus is not that virulent, only a little more virulent than the usual influenza virus, and we'll just all get this new virus, only a few will die, and it will be over.
Another epidemiologist who has experience with SARS infection calls for calm and isolation of anyone who were in Wuhan or was in contact with someone from there.
He thinks that incubation period is 9 days- no symptoms- that is why infection is more difficult to control
Another surprising difficulty:usually the shorter the incubation period the more virulent the infection.
However, 2019-nCov - showing virulence similar to SARS with incubation of 6 days though novel virus having aa longer incubation period of 9-14 days..
They seem to be confident that they could take it under control.
They say a lot of people will be able to recover on its own and should not go to hospitals unless they are extremely unwell.
It is expected that the immune reaction of the whole population will improve in relation to this novel virus.
A lot of people already recovered
First cluster of patients were mostly vendors at the Seafood market - that how the virus was eventually discovered
All infected people are kept in special medical facilities with a negative room pressure.
I had just started watching a new documentary series on Netflix called Pandemic when this started. The timing is almost creepy, but it does have lots of good info about coronaviruses, researchers, origins, etc.
The 9-10 day incubation period is scary. I flew through 3 major airports in the last 10 days.
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