Hurricane and evacuations (Tampa, Cocoa, Punta Gorda: utilities, living, mold)

[Freesponge]

Originally Posted by Arcenal813

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=28.5;-82...=20221001/0200

At no point in time at all are there counterclockwise winds expected to push extra water INTO Tampa Bay from the storm. None, zilch, nada, and no wind model indicates any of this, as the storm remains South or at equal latitude for far too wide of a distance before it ends up north of it.

Keep on displaying your ignorance and throwing around insults at people who live here.

Or… point to me at the exact day and time in the model above when you see winds from the storm blowing into Tampa Bay. I’ll help you out: there isn’t any.

By the way… the bay hasn’t refilled. Need more current pictures?

There will be no surge. As confirmed by meteorologists here too (Dennis Philips from ABC explains it in detail. Look him up, and listen, for once.) The storm will be too far for any of that to happen, and the water will just refill gently.

Currently, boats are still sitting in the sand. Get out of here with your “the bay has refilled” bs.

The water will refill gently, without a surge, because the storm will be too Far East for its winds to cause any major havoc. This isn’t at all like Irma, if that’s what you’re thinking. Wait… you don’t think. You just copy/paste without reading what you post.

If Tampa Bay is at least for now drained out of water from negative storm surge, would it be a bad idea to wander deep into the sands of Tampa Bay’s empty bay, set up camp on that new land that used to be water, And bring picnic food and place a tent with a golf cart?

Real estate inflation has made it expensive to buy real estate in Tampa in 2022 so I appreciate this new land to build on in the Bay. I am willing to pay $500,000 for 1/4 acre of land to build on in the bay provided the negative storm surge doesn’t come roaring back. Good or bad idea?

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by Freesponge

If Tampa Bay is at least for now drained out of water from negative storm surge, would it be a bad idea to wander deep into the sands of Tampa Bay’s empty bay, set up camp on that new land that used to be water, And bring picnic food and place a tent with a golf cart?

Real estate inflation has made it expensive to buy real estate in Tampa in 2022 so I appreciate this new land to build on in the Bay. I am willing to pay $500,000 for 1/4 acre of land to build on in the bay provided the negative storm surge doesn’t come roaring back. Good or bad idea?

It’s going to refill. Slowly/gently, back to its normal ~12ft depth.

[Miss Hepburn]

Originally Posted by louie0406

I’ve seen worse weather on a random Monday afternoon during rainy season.

Thank God! Who knew exactly how it was gonna hit...they came close.
Seems most things in life is a guessing game or a gamble.

[sm0key]

After hurricane Ian, private insurance in Florida is done. The next 5 years will be FULL of fraud and lawsuits. That' leaves Citizens and we'll all all pay out the nose for it.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by Arcenal813

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=28.5;-82...=20221001/0200

At no point in time at all are there counterclockwise winds expected to push extra water INTO Tampa Bay from the storm. None, zilch, nada, and no wind model indicates any of this, as the storm remains South or at equal latitude for far too wide of a distance before it ends up north of it.

Keep on displaying your ignorance and throwing around insults at people who live here.

Or… point to me at the exact day and time in the model above when you see winds from the storm blowing into Tampa Bay. I’ll help you out: there isn’t any.

By the way… the bay hasn’t refilled. Need more current pictures?

There will be no surge. As confirmed by meteorologists here too (Dennis Philips from ABC explains it in detail. Look him up, and listen, for once.) The storm will be too far for any of that to happen, and the water will just refill gently.

Currently, boats are still sitting in the sand. Get out of here with your “the bay has refilled” bs.

The water will refill gently, without a surge, because the storm will be too Far East for its winds to cause any major havoc. This isn’t at all like Irma, if that’s what you’re thinking. Wait… you don’t think. You just copy/paste without reading what you post.

Yet the National Hurricane Center projected a 4-6 foot peak storm surge for Tampa Bay as of Wednesday evening, and, as of Thursday morning at 2 a.m., still projected a 2-4 foot storm surge for Tampa Bay. I don't know if the storm surge in Tampa Bay peaked before 2 a.m. and subsequently declined, and the new estimate reflects only prospective condition, of if the estimate change reflects a revision of the peak storm surge estimate for Tampa Bay for the duration of the storm.



Note the greatly reduced peak storm surges indicated on the NHC peak storm surge map further south along the west coast. At 2 a.m., the NHC peak storm surge map was indicating a peak surge of only 5-8 feet from Englewood to Bonita Beach, compared to the 12-18 foot estimate only 9 hours earlier. Unfortunately, the NHC doesn't provide a separate URL for each storm surge map update, and, as of yet, isn't providing peak actually recorded storm surge estimates. The NHC storm surge map doesn't state whether it is an estimate reflecting currently prospective estimates, or whether the map provides peak storm estimates for the entire duration of the storm (if the latter, the NHC greatly overestimated the peak storm surge estimates at 5 p.m.).



However, the peak storm surge estimates are recorded in the text archives.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...Surge#contents


As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, even as Ian was making landfall, the NHC was still indicating a storm surge of 12-18 feet from Englewood to Bonita Beach.


<<
Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor.>>


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/202...cus.025.shtml?


Anyway, according to the NHC, you're wrong. A storm surge was projected for Tampa Bay, even as late as 2 a.m.



It will be interesting to see the actual peak storm surges attributable to Hurricane Ian by location along the entire west coast of Florida when they finally are compiled.


BTW, by the time of post 70 at 10 p.m. Wednesday, the AP had already reported that Tampa Bay had refilled with water. Yet you were claiming that it was "BS" that the bay had refilled at 10:18 p.m.



<<
Because hurricane winds blow counterclockwise, the winds at the northern edge of Ian’s circular system were blowing from east to west with such force that they pushed bay water into the Gulf of Mexico.


Water eventually refilled the bay.>>


Tough choice of whom to believe -- the AP or Arcenal813. NOT!

[Arcenal813]

The bay had NOT been refilled at 10pm. Boats were literally still in the sand. It’s SLOWLY refilling, but is far from being back up still. I’ll have friends take more pictures once the sun is up.

Interesting how the number in your link keeps going down. And no, there has not been any surge yet. Now it says projected peak of 1-3 feet. That’s barely even something worth mentioning, as it happens during routine afternoon storms with strong winds. This number is likely to keep dropping too, and there won’t be a surge in the bay at all.

You know, it’s okay to admit that you were wrong. It’s all part of growing up.

[WRnative]

The 5 a.m. update of the NHC peak storm surge forecast map makes it very clear that the map provides estimates of current and immediately prospective conditions, and NOT of peak storm surge estimates for the duration of the storm.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...Surge#contents


The 5 a.m. NHC storm surge estimate map update no longer shows any Hurricane Ian storm surge for Key West, although there was a significant reported storm surge in Key West. The storm surge estimated for Charlotte Harbor is reduced to 4-6 feet. The Tampa Bay storm surge estimate is reduced to 1-3 feet.


https://www.miamiherald.com/news/loc...266485256.html

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by WRnative

You're arguing with the Associated Press and the National Hurricane Center, not with me. Perhaps other readers will understand why I think you're full of it.

The NHC’s updating data and scientific wind models seem to agree with me. As do local meteorologists.
As do people who live right there on the bay who didn’t leave, and update me regularly, as I get ready to return, as there won’t be any catastrophic surge to speak of in the TB area.

By the way… the NHC was wildly off with its earlier projections.


Lol @ the AP. What’s next, CNN?

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Post 80 explains why the National Hurricane peak storm surge estimates for Tampa Bay (again not my estimates) apparently keep falling.

There has been no storm surge in Tampa Bay at all thus far. The bay is still refilling.

Keep falling.

Here’s something for you… Interesting what we can get with modern technology huh…

https://youtu.be/77aULkAkL2I

Water still low, slowly refilling. You can rewind as far back as 12 hours.

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Perhaps there was no storm surge in Tampa Bay. You haven't documented that fact. I've learned over the years to not trust your undocumented statements, most especially when the NHC has projected a Tampa Bay storm surge for the past 24 hours. Don't you understand that the NHC's continuously lowered storm surge projections reflect current conditions and don't reflect the maximum height of any storm surge in Tampa Bay in the last 24 hours???

See the live cam above. Rewind as far back as you must.

No storm surge in Tampa Bay, like I said.

“Undocumented?”

24 hours? What? I posted live pics at around 7pm yesterday when it was bone dry. 12 hours ago.

The live stream above shows it’s STILL low.

Looks like I was right after all. Well I’ll be darned. Not bad for an “ignorant, uneducated, BIG LIE propagandist.”