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The 1 to 2 week period certainly looks like one which is to be fascinating monitor. Models are forecasting quite a cold spell and over a huge swath of North America--entering the West first then spreading eastward. And what's interesting is this cool-down is being driven by a pool of extraordinary "warmth" over the arctic regions of eastern Russia east into Alaska. Just look at the region of above normal temps (the huge area in orange) draped across virtually the the entire arctic region. It certainly underscores the connection between weather in the arctic and the mid-latitudes.
The warmth there (in the arctic) buckles the jet into quite a ridge around the core of the warmth aloft over eastern Russia and Alaska which leads to deep troughing (a sharp southward buckle of the jet) into the Lower 48. This is potentially quite a stormy pattern for the country. It also sends upper steering winds diving from Canada into the western half of the Lower 48, potentially laying the foundation for quite a southward displacement of cold air into the country.
If this is any indication of the way we're heading this cold season, you would think the winter is could be quite a volatile one.
What's also VERY interesting is how different the colder than normal pattern on this side of the planet is predicted to be from the huge warmer than normal weather regime predicted to dominate much of the vast Eurasian continent. It's a forecast a theme in the Dec 7-14 time range which has been sounded for days now by a suite of medium range global models---i.e. the models which predict out into the two week time range.
Here off our in-house MDA data base and driven by the European Center's global model is the upper air forecast for December 2013's opening week.
Quote:
Here's the forecast of surface temp departures which accompany the global upper air pattern I've just posted. This is for the 6 to 10 day period which covers the Dec 2 through 6 period.
I don't understand how not too far west of me is well below normal, and here it's above? The Gulf really has no influence on the weather here at all this time of year unless there's a southerly flow.....
It does look like a leading edge of a strong cold front though...
I don't understand how not too far west of me is well below normal, and here it's above? The Gulf really has no influence on the weather here at all this time of year unless there's a southerly flow.....
It does look like a leading edge of a strong cold front though...
Probably is a strong cold front. I think Tallahassee will manage to see teens mid month.
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but it does look a strong cold front that'll make it's way here though.....right? Hopefully.
