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Right now it's looking like conditions favor the formation of a squall line over the area tomorrow, which would mean a damaging wind threat. It's still uncertain to what extent supercells will form out ahead of the main squall line. These could lead to isolated tornadoes.
And yet the blob remains. With all these low pressure systems passing by, the water there should be below avg at this point, not above. I wonder if the thing is being fueled by an underground volcano or something. Why won't that thing dissipate?
The severe risk has expanded northward on the latest NWS update for tomorrow. Some potential for strong tornadoes also.
...EAST TX THROUGH AR AND LOWER MS VALLEY
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL SLGT AND ENH AREAS HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES IN NORTHEAST LA INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST AR AND WEST-CENTRAL MS.
KINEMATIC FIELDS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH A STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET...IN EXCESS OF 110KT...EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
KS/OK AND INTO MO/AR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MID MO VALLEY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WILL AID A LONG-LIVED
SQUALL LINE THAT WILL BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...EXTENDING FROM
SERN KS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX. SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STRONGLY SHEARED LINEAR MCS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MEANWHILE...12Z NAM 4-KM AND NSSL 4-KM MODELS EACH INDICATE A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST LA...SOUTHEAST AR AND
ADJACENT WESTERN MS WITH STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE NNE.
STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO 50-60 KT ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE RETURN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE
UPPER 60S POTENTIALLY REACHING CENTRAL AR AND MUCH OF WRN AND SRN MS
PRIOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NORTHEAST EXPANSION OF THE SLGT AND
MARGINAL AREAS REMAINS LIMITED TO THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR BEING RETARDED SOMEWHAT AS TRAJECTORIES
FROM DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF EARLY-DAY SQUALL
LINE...WHILE GREATER CONCERN EXISTS FOR PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...GIVEN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND
STRONGER SFC-1 KM SHEAR ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT.
60s today. 30s tonight. 40s tomorrow. Wasnt sure why just 40s tomorrow.. now I do.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO THE LONG ISLAND SOUND AT 20Z. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...UP TO 1036 MB...WAS BUILDING IN FROM EASTERN CANADA BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE CLOUDS THAT WERE ALONG THE FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE FRONT WAS COMING THROUGH DRY
Clear sky all day. Windy today from the west probably associated with the front. No wonder I was cold, it's 43. Really fast drop. Was considering bike in the dark but I felt too cold, didn't bring sufficient clothing wasn't expecting 40s let alone 43. High was 61, I think but somehow didn't feel that warm. Low sun angle means you're in the shade most of the time and wind made things cooler. Hills were also somewhat colder
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