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November most likely to be more like 1982 than 1997.
Enjoy.
Any cold shot will not last as long as the warmth is. 100% sure for 1st half at least. 5 days of warmth vs 2 days of cold = end result of above normal obviously. Same could be for 2nd half of November.
Not ...
Whats crazy is.. with this warmth coming, any leaves still green will be prolonged even more. Will it actually be one of those years we're leaf blowing in December?
November most likely to be more like 1982 than 1997.
Enjoy.
Any cold shot will not last as long as the warmth is. 100% sure for 1st half at least. 5 days of warmth vs 2 days of cold = end result of above normal obviously. Same could be for 2nd half of November.
Not ...
Whats crazy is.. with this warmth coming, any leaves still green will be prolonged even more. Will it actually be one of those years we're leaf blowing in December?
I've heard the AO is to be positive in November this year. I've also heard that since 1950, the state of the AO in November was strongly correlated to the trend thru the winter months. Supposedly this has been the case since 1950 except for a few winters. And the AO is not just supposed to be positive this month but very positive. Will be interesting to see if this scenario plays out or if this year ends up one of those years where the correlation breaks down. And who knows, maybe the AO will switch in the second half of November. Just another one of all these variables that combine thru winter.
I've heard the AO is to be positive in November this year. I've also heard that since 1950, the state of the AO in November was strongly correlated to the trend thru the winter months. Supposedly this has been the case since 1950 except for a few winters. And the AO is not just supposed to be positive this month but very positive. Will be interesting to see if this scenario plays out or if this year ends up one of those years where the correlation breaks down. And who knows, maybe the AO will switch in the second half of November. Just another one of all these variables that combine thru winter.
IF...IF that Polar Vortex breaks off and heads to North America, the AO will get sustained more at negative, but might not happen for another 6 weeks+
GFS12z data for Philly.
Seasonable/chilly today & tomm.
7 days of warmth coming with a 587DAM Wed/Thurs.
Then maybe a deep cold trough to follow after next weekend.
Whats crazy is that cold is over 8 days away and we all know things can change and flip that far out. We'll see. But that is an extended and deep warm period coming....and dry.
Might not be as bad for New England especially the coast.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS EASTERN
US. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS POTENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH MAY BRING COOLER TEMPS WED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ECMWF IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO COOLING TEMPS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER
60S...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE FRONT WILL SET UP. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S TUE WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY
NEAR 70.
WARMEST DAY LIKELY ON THU WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND 925 TEMPS NEAR 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 70S IF IT VERIFIES.
IT APPEARS RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER WILL HANG ON INTO FRI WITH ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY...BUT HOW WARM IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON POSITION OF ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
Looks like southeast Georgia will remain mostly dry while north Georgia gets inundated with rain. Savannah only has 1.36 inches so far this month, about 40% of normal. Rain chances are spotty Sunday into Monday.
Looks like southeast Georgia will remain mostly dry while north Georgia gets inundated with rain. Savannah only has 1.36 inches so far this month, about 40% of normal. Rain chances are spotty Sunday into Monday.
That blows. We're due to get a couple inches at least - 100% chance of rain tomorrow night and Sunday.
That blows. We're due to get a couple inches at least - 100% chance of rain tomorrow night and Sunday.
I don't know if I should be happy or sad. We did barely miss that flood event in South Carolina by only about 100 miles or so. Our area just hasn't been the target of any precip outbreaks this past month.
I don't know if I should be happy or sad. We did barely miss that flood event in South Carolina by only about 100 miles or so. Our area just hasn't been the target of any precip outbreaks this past month.
I'd be bummed, since I love all-day rains. One of the best things about this time of year going forward - we should be seeing a lot of these, especially since it's an El Nino winter.
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