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Anyone have any theories on why we get these really large deviations from average so often?
Lots of theories, very little data. Back in 1928 it was noted that it seemed the deadly winter storms that would strike the US came from the arctic, and the fact that there was only one year round arctic weather station above the arctic circle made it impossible to predict them. (the station was not somewhere that would help the US either)
History: Development of an international meteorological reporting network in the Arctic was authorized by act of February 12, 1946 (60 Stat. 4). In cooperation with Canada, five stations were established in the Canadian Arctic between 1947 and 1950, and operated as the Joint Arctic Weather Stations (JAWS). Under a separate agreement with Denmark, a station was established at Thule, Greenland. In 1965, the Polar Operations Project was discontinued and its functions transferred to the Overseas Division of the Weather Bureau, part of the Environmental Science Services Administration.
Not until the satellite era was it possible to even guess at what was happening in the polar regions. Cohen has been promoting his theory/model which claims Siberian snow is the precursor of winters in the US and Asia, but of course, it's weather, so it's hard to say "we know" yet.
If we had accurate records going back a hundred years we might have a chance of knowing, but that is an impossibility. We can't even know if we are seeing greater variability or not, especially considering the horrific changes that happened in after 1950 in the US, which eventually led to the "Coming Ice Age" sacres and the idea that the cooling trend would not let up.
Certainly what happens in the Arctic, and especially snow fall, has a major role in weather "downstream" as it were. But like arctic weather records, we have very poor data on the actual output and changes to the solar radiation received in the past, so figuring out the cause is quite difficult. We have zero actual direct data on what was happening at the TOA before the modern era, which really hamstrings figuring out causes.
This could get lengthy, and it seems off topic.
Theories about the weather? There is no end to them, same it always has been.
Last edited by SFX; 11-18-2015 at 02:45 AM..
Reason: added link
Yikes. Its not even 77 in the room with the fire here. Lol. I think you asked me something this morning.. I just didnt know the answer or have an opinion on it.
Dropped to 30° outside now. Well below forecasts. Knees aching from the strong pressure overhead. Wow. 1035mb.
My question was whether colder temps aloft (12C) (925mb) make a noticeable difference if winds are still off the ocean.
My question was whether colder temps aloft (12C) 725mb make a noticeable difference if winds are still off the ocean.
Good question.. Depends how strong those winds are and how much mixes but generally if a colder air mass comes in aloft, the flow wont be off the ocean.
Lets look at current 850mb temps and surface winds.. Note how the 5C line is pushing south into Texas.. )cool air mass) note the winds aren't off the gulf in South Texas...because the trough is pushing "south". But on the other side(east side of Jet) the winds are from the south so the Gulf coast is getting that return flow and a warmer air mass and warming up.
Good question.. Depends how strong those winds are and how much mixes but generally if a colder air mass comes in aloft, the flow wont be off the ocean.
Lets look at current 850mb temps and surface winds.. Note how the 5C line is pushing south into Texas.. )cool air mass) note the winds aren't off the gulf in South Texas...because the trough is pushing "south". But on the other side(east side of Jet) the winds are from the south so the Gulf coast is getting that return flow and a warmer air mass and warming up.
I looked at the GFS output and it showed temps in the low 60's with winds out of the NNE (ocean) kinda a backdoorsy type thing I guess...Like I said earlier, 925mb temps get down to 12C which is far lower than anything else this season.
I looked at the GFS output and it showed temps in the low 60's with winds out of the NNE (ocean) kinda a backdoorsy type thing I guess...Like I said earlier, 925mb temps get down to 12C which is far lower than anything else this season.
Of course. High Pressure in Mid Atlantic will bring winds from the NNE off the ocean there. Those winds are coming from a location where not only waters are cooler but a cooler air mass as well. So yes, surface will reflect and get cooler.
Just look at North America and our huge anomalies and then look elsewhere on the globe.
What was I just telling everyone? Anti-El Nino pattern, here we come .
Quote:
I don't care what anybody says, North America gets the biggest negative anomalies the most often compared to anywhere on the globe. We must have the strangest geography compared to the rest of the globe or the two oceans around us are our worst enemy. It isn't even winter yet, and here we go with the large variations. Anyone have any theories on why we get these really large deviations from average so often?
I find it one of the more charming features of our continent's climate, but my theory is that (among many other mostly unknown things) North America differs from Eurasia because it has the Rocky Mountains typically blocking Pacific maritime air from penetrating far into the interior, so we get these cold air buildups north and east of the Rockies that can sit and stew - at the same time, unlike Asia North America isn't big enough to sprout a Siberian-type high that keeps the weather in more or less the same pattern most of the time. Thus we get these more mobile airmasses that produce these large deviations from average (both cold and warm) that we see; for the same reason, our Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley are by far the most active parts of the world for tornadoes.
It also might not be winter yet, but late November is close enough to get the same kind of pattern - notice that the common-as-dirt enormous heat ridges America gets in late May hardly ever elicit this sort of comment on how it isn't even summer yet.
What was I just telling everyone? Anti-El Nino pattern, here we come .
I find it one of the more charming features of our continent's climate, but my theory is that (among many other mostly unknown things) North America differs from Eurasia because it has the Rocky Mountains typically blocking Pacific maritime air from penetrating far into the interior, so we get these cold air buildups north and east of the Rockies that can sit and stew - at the same time, unlike Asia North America isn't big enough to sprout a Siberian-type high that keeps the weather in more or less the same pattern most of the time. Thus we get these more mobile airmasses that produce these large deviations from average (both cold and warm) that we see; for the same reason, our Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley are by far the most active parts of the world for tornadoes.
It also might not be winter yet, but late November is close enough to get the same kind of pattern - notice that the common-as-dirt enormous heat ridges America gets in late May hardly ever elicit this sort of comment on how it isn't even summer yet.
Anomalies in late Spring and Summer never match the magnitude of the anomalies in winter, especially in the southeastern part of the US. They seem to get the most dramatic anomalies in winter.
Getting dark to the west. Line of heavy rain approaching.
Couple of wind damage reports in TN and AL. Some heavy downpours. What a line that extends from Gulf to Indiana.
Another November snow storm coming. Wonder if ChicagoGeorge is going to get over half foot.
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Anti-El Nino pattern, here we come 
.
