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Old 08-02-2016, 05:03 PM
 
29,537 posts, read 19,626,354 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Chicago hasnt had a Top 10 warm August since 2010. Before that was 1995. Hmmm, every 5 yrs?
As long as it remains above average, I'm ok with that And you can't help but think when you see statistically 12 of the last 16 years above average with one spot on average and only 2 below, that something is up with our climate at least during the end of the summer. Some kind of pattern has changed.



Shoreline water temps in Chicago are nearing 80 degrees






EURO out to day 10 850mb



Oh and here are the GFS ensmbles





Last edited by chicagogeorge; 08-02-2016 at 05:12 PM..
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Old 08-02-2016, 05:19 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,526 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16626
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
As long as it remains above average, I'm ok with that And you can't help but think when you see statistically 12 of the last 16 years above average with one spot on average and only 2 below, that something is up with our climate at least during the end of the summer. Some kind of pattern has changed.

Shoreline water temps in Chicago are nearing 80 degrees

EURO out to day 10 850mb

Oh and here are the GFS ensmbles




Remember how all those images backfired on you in June. I'd use caution this month again.


1st image, 10 days away. I see you're trying that again now. Looking too far for it.


2nd and 3rd images do you realize you're showing a 5 day average graphic that only has 3+ above normal in the plains, right? Can you say "seasonable" elsewhere.


Can't wait for the weekend.


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Old 08-02-2016, 05:30 PM
 
29,537 posts, read 19,626,354 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Remember how all those images backfired on you in June. I'd use caution this month again.
Do you mean how early July was cool? Yeah, but the month still ended up above average

Quote:
1st image, 10 days away. I see you're trying that again now. Looking too far for it.
Yeah I know anything can happen after 10 days

Quote:
2nd and 3rd images do you realize you're showing a 5 day average graphic that only has 3+ above normal in the plains, right? Can you say "seasonable" elsewhere.
That's in Celsius Cambium A 3C anomaly is not seasonable anywhere

Quote:


Can't wait for the weekend.

Low 80s for us Sat/Sun which is seasonable. Until then, heat index near 110F on Thursday

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Old 08-02-2016, 05:33 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,408,997 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Do you mean how early July was cool? Yeah, but the month still ended up above average



Yeah I know anything can happen after 10 days



That's in Celsius Cambium A 3C anomaly is not seasonable anywhere



Low 80s for us Sat/Sun which is seasonable. Until then, heat index near 110F on Thursday
We will be above average on weekend, only below average days will be tomorrow through Thursday.
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Old 08-02-2016, 05:34 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,408,997 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
As long as it remains above average, I'm ok with that And you can't help but think when you see statistically 12 of the last 16 years above average with one spot on average and only 2 below, that something is up with our climate at least during the end of the summer. Some kind of pattern has changed.



Shoreline water temps in Chicago are nearing 80 degrees






EURO out to day 10 850mb



Oh and here are the GFS ensmbles



What's the coldest the water has been during this time of year? Lake Michigan looks very nice for swimming in.
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Old 08-02-2016, 05:38 PM
 
29,537 posts, read 19,626,354 times
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^^

Upwelling can drop temps easily to the low 60's. But generally by August water temps are in the mid to upper 70's topping out around 80F in spots.

This could throw a monkey wrench in the models


https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...13815621734401
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Old 08-02-2016, 05:41 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,408,997 times
Reputation: 1996
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
This could throw a monkey wrench in the models


https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...13815621734401
Yep, remember typhoon Nuri and November 2014? Was supposed to be warm instead was record breaking cold. Obviously this is not the same strength and track as Nuri though which was very odd. Hopefully it's short lived.
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Old 08-02-2016, 05:45 PM
 
29,537 posts, read 19,626,354 times
Reputation: 4549
Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
Yep, remember typhoon Nuri and November 2014? Was supposed to be warm instead was record breaking cold. Obviously this is not the same strength and track as Nuri though which was very odd. Hopefully it's short lived.
It may not even curve. We'll see. But Cambium is right, beyond 10 days it's basically a crap shoot.

https://twitter.com/KOPNFMRADIOWX/st...66077725974528
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Old 08-02-2016, 05:58 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,526 posts, read 75,333,969 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post

That's in Celsius Cambium A 3C anomaly is not seasonable anywhere
Yes, your own map shows a small area of the country with 3+. The rest is seasonable. Or you might call it, seasonably warm. 1-2C is nothing to brag about for a 5 day anomaly. Look at the Northeast and Chicago on 2nd image...barely above 1.5C. Lol. Last image is 11-16 days out.
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Old 08-02-2016, 06:07 PM
 
29,537 posts, read 19,626,354 times
Reputation: 4549
^^

Yes, I would be around +1C, but the Central US (a good portion of 4 states) is at least 2-3+C above average. And in the 6-10 day more like 6 states. That's not a small area of the country. But yeah it's 10+ days so anything can happen and models can easily flip. I know this.

I'm not complaining about this evening seven day update either. Nothing super hot aside for the heat and especially the humidity on Thursday. Just not cool.





Btw, June and July combined are +2.3F above normal at Chicago/MDW and +2.1F at ORD. Can't complain about this summer.
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