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This definitely is a concern locally here. I know it will change Asheville, even if it's temporarily. It makes me wonder how it will impact things in the future and how long it will last.
There's just no way to know right now.
Areas that are more tourist/out of town money driven like Asheville will probably take it on the chin more than many other areas, at least in the short term. Much has been said in the past about AVL's lack of professional jobs and low pay. Things need to get better elsewhere for the tourist places to ramp up again.
Areas that are more tourist/out of town money driven like Asheville will probably take it on the chin more than many other areas, at least in the short term. Much has been said in the past about AVL's lack of professional jobs and low pay. Things need to get better elsewhere for the tourist places to ramp up again.
Good point I heard someone say the other day, they think Asheville will go back to 2009 times. You are right though, nobody knows. These are definitely uncertain times. I also wonder if the real estate market will get hit here as well. It's sad to think people will be losing their homes here or anywhere for that matter. As you mention, I do think the job market here plays a big part. All we can hope for is the best and hope this will pass sooner than later.
Vince, as an expat you could be sensitive to the idea your post might appear to be gloating - I compare it to telling a neighbor who is working on their Beemer " I never had these sort of problems since I traded my BMW for a Toyota" ... Neener, neener. Only Erwin might better be described as a Hyundai.
Sure, Asheville has a lot of non-essential businesses, people flock to Asheville to escape the ordinary. I'm sad to think if those businesses are closing permanently rather than just taking a furlough.
Vince, as an expat you could be sensitive to the idea your post might appear to be gloating - I compare it to telling a neighbor who is working on their Beemer " I never had these sort of problems since I traded my BMW for a Toyota" ... Neener, neener. Only Erwin might better be described as a Hyundai.
Its not even that. Tennessee has ordered non-essential businesses to close, just like NC, and pretty much every other state. That means 32% (or whatever) of businesses everywhere are closed, including Erwin. Singling out Asheville (or any other city) is just dumb and makes no sense. And attempting to correlate the closures to an underlying weakness in the local economy, when it is fact a result of a Governor's emergency proclamation, is just stupefying.
Vince, as an expat you could be sensitive to the idea your post might appear to be gloating - I compare it to telling a neighbor who is working on their Beemer " I never had these sort of problems since I traded my BMW for a Toyota" ... Neener, neener. Only Erwin might better be described as a Hyundai.
Sure, Asheville has a lot of non-essential businesses, people flock to Asheville to escape the ordinary. I'm sad to think if those businesses are closing permanently rather than just taking a furlough.
Or could it be that we too are AVL business owners and also work for an AVL area business (Weaverville) that have both been affected by this Covid situation?
If anything, we have as much (or more) invested in the AVL economy as anyone here commenting, so I’m a bit perplexed with the negativity here just because we now reside in TN and have shared some thoughts, aka facts.
I hear what you're saying about gloating, but to say that anyone here is doing so (or any of the other **** by others before you) is way off and a bit hypersensitive IMO. Sharing thoughts is what we’re all here to do, right?
It’s a simple fact that AVL is a tourist based economy with a large majority of its workforce in the restaurant and hospitality industry, so it will feel the effects of this situation much more than other communities in the region.
Nothing more, nothing less. Read into it what you will ...
Last edited by VinceTheExplorer; 04-13-2020 at 09:28 AM..
Or could it be that we too are AVL business owners and also work for an AVL area business (Weaverville) that have both been affected by this Covid situation?
If anything, we have as much (or more) invested in the AVL economy as anyone here commenting, so I’m a bit perplexed with the negativity here just because we now reside in TN and have shared some thoughts, aka facts.
I hear what you're saying about gloating, but to say that anyone here is doing so (or any of the other **** by others before you) is way off and a bit hypersensitive IMO. Sharing thoughts is what we’re all here to do, right?
It’s a simple fact that AVL is a tourist based economy with a large majority of its workforce in the restaurant and hospitality industry, so it will feel the effects of this situation much more than other communities in the region.
Nothing more, nothing less. Read into it what you will ...
No one is disagreeing with you that Asheville is tourist based and that tourist based economies are probably going to be hit harder than others during this. That's probably going to be accurate in the near term.
With that said...
With the exception of about five years in my 20s in affluent Midwestern areas, I've been a mostly lifelong resident of the Tri-Cities. This area is getting butchered because of COVID. Ballad has laid off 1,300, and more layoffs will likely come the longer elective procedures and the revenue generators are shut down. Domtar, a Kingsport paper products plant that has been around over a hundred years, idled all staff for at least three months. There is no guarantee if or when they will reopen. Eastman has sent a lot of contractors home without pay indefinitely, and they have also put disciplinary action on the table for any of their staff who travel outside the Appalachian Highlands - meanwhile, upper management decided to fly two infected people back to the Tri-Cities from Wuhan. Tons of small business have laid off 50-100.
Like Asheville, all of our restaurants, bars, and breweries have laid off nearly everyone. That's not a small part of Johnson City especially. Many physician practices and urgent cares that aren't Ballad-related are also being hit due to a huge decline in patient traffic. Cancer patients and any nonemergent medical procedures are basically benched. Nurses and related staff have been laid off due to a lack of patient volume in the hospitals, and a lower than expected amount of COVID cases. Our hospitals are damn near empty. Many of the smaller companies have laid off or furloughed most of their staff. My aunt owns a painting company that was prospering before this with ~45 employees - the hospital system was the biggest client, that dried up, and now she laid off everyone.
Asheville has the natural beauty, better location, tourist draw, and nightlife/culture/dining expertise to bounce back from this - far, far better than the Tri-Cities will. What are 300 guys without a college degree or other marketable skills here going to do if Domtar doesn't reopen? Many of the folks Ballad laid off are white collar professionals. Those people are going to be looking for other work, and many will bail out to better areas that aren't one-horse towns. We don't have the local reputation or expertise that Asheville has to leverage.
Johnson City will be fine with the VA, university, and the flagship hospital/Ballad HQ. This is a death knell for Kingsport's blue collar working class economy, and the rural areas.
I don't understand what you have against WNC/AVL. Sure, property prices are high. Wages are low. Everyone who has done a serious analysis knows this, but part of the reason for that is because many people view it as a nice place to live, and you have a lot of dollars chasing relatively few properties.
East TN has far deeper, systemic problems that aren't going to be corrected by a recession bringing prices down. In spite of all of TN's tax advantages, lower cost of living, and pro-business stances at the state and local level, this area's economy, outside of Johnson City, is a disaster. It's far worse than Asheville's is.
SC, I agree with and understand your comparisons of each area completely. The covid-19 situation has deeply impacted both areas but there’s a big difference in how each area will recover from it.
As we all know AVL is extremely overpriced and most of it is driven from the outside $$$ flowing in to the area faster than the creeks surrounding it. When you’re paying $500+ sq ft for a new build or $300+ sq ft for a 1950’s remodel then the creek dries up and you lose your a$$ on your property because of covid-19, then the area takes a huge hit that we “out in the country” folks will not nearly have to endure.
First hit is 1) area property values (aka foreclosures) and then 2) consumer buying confidence for years to come for most of the working class blue collar, middle to upper middle class “daydreaming of a life in the mountains” Americans who are in foreclosure or can’t get a loan now because of one.
But being both of us are here in TN must mean something then right? What it means is that we both came to realize (maybe by luck, who cares) that no matter how bad things get (in this case with covid-19) we’re still pretty well insulated from “economic shock” despite some loss of jobs and still live in a PRETTY AWESOME AREA when compared to the beating being had just over the hill.
IMO losing 30% on say a $150k property is WAY BETTER than losing it on a $550k property in an area that never has supported its value before covid-19 and won't be able to support it for years to come now. If my checkbook were in hand, I know where the smart money would be spent, and the AVL area wouldn’t be it as the floor here has only so far to drop.
To me that’s the fools game of paying AVL prices and where my only chip on the shoulder lies. It’s a beautiful area but a lot of folks got enamored with the “WNC lifestyle” and will lose more on their homes there than our homes are even worth. Wealth building though isn’t about the short term “look at me” money that many have been spending in AVL for years.
It’s all about finding the perfect balance between your needs versus your wants, insulating yourself from risk and seizing opportunities ... and here in TN we’re in a pretty good place to do so while weathering the storm and still enjoying all that the area has to offer. A pretty good deal IMO.
Maybe you’ll agree. Maybe you wont. Just my two cents.
Last edited by VinceTheExplorer; 04-14-2020 at 12:07 AM..
We have been living a rural life style since we got out of high school and with the far higher than 32% of business closed and most all others open to a limited amount of customers it only conferms how little we need from high number of business that are closed .
America will be a different country for some time , maybe many years when this virus is gone and will it return again ?
For Vince , Tn seems to be all that as if his area is special at least for now ! I've felt the same here in yancey county for the last 23 years and still have friends the moved to areas of rural Florida and northern Georgia mountains that feel the same way . We all lost interest in growing larger markets area and moved to get back to our roots I guess . I could be just fine in most any rural area and have few needs found in larger developed and over developed markets .
One thing for sure this tread was not worth the time to brief thru it .
Stay safe and maybe for some they will learn a new life style to work and live with .
I'm really not worried. I didn't build my house here worrying about a market drop, I built my dream house here to live in it for a very long time. It's the same insanity of looking at your 401k right now and realizing it's dropped 30%. Are you playing the short game with your retirement too? No. People are screaming the sky is falling, and yes that has effected local business deeply but it will come back. As soon as everyone stops freaking out and we start rolling re-openings things will get back to normal. Will it ever be the same? No. It won't be anywhere. I have high hopes that the cream of the crop in Asheville will come back with a vengeance. The best restaurants the area has to offer are going to come back. All 5 million breweries that no one needed aren't going to though. Oh well. Some of my favorite restaurants here are still doing take out (White Labs, Liberty Street, Tupulo).
People need to relax. This whole thing is so overblown it's hilarious.
SC, I agree with and understand your comparisons of each area completely. The covid-19 situation has deeply impacted both areas but there’s a big difference in how each area will recover from it.
As we all know AVL is extremely overpriced and most of it is driven from the outside $$$ flowing in to the area faster than the creeks surrounding it. When you’re paying $500+ sq ft for a new build or $300+ sq ft for a 1950’s remodel then the creek dries up and you lose your a$$ on your property because of covid-19, then the area takes a huge hit that we “out in the country” folks will not nearly have to endure.
First hit is 1) area property values (aka foreclosures) and then 2) consumer buying confidence for years to come for most of the working class blue collar, middle to upper middle class “daydreaming of a life in the mountains” Americans who are in foreclosure or can’t get a loan now because of one.
But being both of us are here in TN must mean something then right? What it means is that we both came to realize (maybe by luck, who cares) that no matter how bad things get (in this case with covid-19) we’re still pretty well insulated from “economic shock” despite some loss of jobs and still live in a PRETTY AWESOME AREA when compared to the beating being had just over the hill.
IMO losing 30% on say a $150k property is WAY BETTER than losing it on a $550k property in an area that never has supported its value before covid-19 and won't be able to support it for years to come now. If my checkbook were in hand, I know where the smart money would be spent, and the AVL area wouldn’t be it as the floor here has only so far to drop.
To me that’s the fools game of paying AVL prices and where my only chip on the shoulder lies. It’s a beautiful area but a lot of folks got enamored with the “WNC lifestyle” and will lose more on their homes there than our homes are even worth. Wealth building though isn’t about the short term “look at me” money that many have been spending in AVL for years.
It’s all about finding the perfect balance between your needs versus your wants, insulating yourself from risk and seizing opportunities ... and here in TN we’re in a pretty good place to do so while weathering the storm and still enjoying all that the area has to offer. A pretty good deal IMO.
Maybe you’ll agree. Maybe you wont. Just my two cents.
Sure, you'll end up with a "bigger loss" on the $550k property in Asheville, but keep in mind that the property got up to $550k to begin with. If someone has been in the house for twenty years and bought it for $200k, that's $350k of equity. The house in the Tri-Cities wouldn't even be worth $300k.
My grandmother is moving out of her family home and into a condo. The house was built for about $40k back in 1967. We'll be lucky to get $130k out of it, and it has a one year old heat pump, roof two years old, but needs some cosmetic updates. Outside Kingsport is just not a desirable area now. Throw the house anywhere in WNC, and it's worth twice as much, maybe more.
Asheville will bounce back because it's a desirable area for many people. This area, not so much. Sure, some restaurants and small businesses will close, but others will open after things get more back to normal because that's basically what Asheville is known for.
I also don't understand why people think east TN is so cheap. Johnson City is really your only viable city, especially for a transplant. A newer SFH (<20 years old) in the city, zoned to city schools, is going to start at around $250k. Bristol is OK, but smaller and doesn't have everything JC does. Kingsport has been trending downward for years. Johnson City is neck and neck with Knoxville in terms of real estate, but Knoxville has a far better economy.
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I heard someone say the other day, they think Asheville will go back to 2009 times. You are right though, nobody knows. These are definitely uncertain times. I also wonder if the real estate market will get hit here as well. It's sad to think people will be losing their homes here or anywhere for that matter. As you mention, I do think the job market here plays a big part. All we can hope for is the best and hope this will pass sooner than later.
