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I think many of you are incorrect as pegging Asheville as being solely having a tourism-based economy. Obviously tourism is a big part of the job market, but there's a LOT more than just that. Prior to the coronavirus situation, Buncombe County had 22,000 manufacturing jobs, 18,400 in business and professional services, 38,200 in education and health services, 26,600 in government. And for comparison, 28,600 in leisure and hospitality services. The local job market is not a one legged stool.
Plus, Asheville is a retirement destination, and obviously retirees aren't looking for jobs, and many of them have substantial assets and/or home equity.
I think writing off Asheville's housing market and economic fortunes right now is a mistake. It may take a hit, but I think many of you are overreaching.
I think many of you are incorrect as pegging Asheville as being solely having a tourism-based economy. Obviously tourism is a big part of the job market, but there's a LOT more than just that. Prior to the coronavirus situation, Buncombe County had 22,000 manufacturing jobs, 18,400 in business and professional services, 38,200 in education and health services, 26,600 in government. And for comparison, 28,600 in leisure and hospitality services. The local job market is not a one legged stool.
Plus, Asheville is a retirement destination, and obviously retirees aren't looking for jobs, and many of them have substantial assets and/or home equity.
I think writing off Asheville's housing market and economic fortunes right now is a mistake. It may take a hit, but I think many of you are overreaching.
Asheville's housing market will ultimately be ok, because it is a highly desirable place to live (both for retirees and others). The issue now and in the near to intermediate future is prices, whether buying or building. Keep in mind, many retirees have lost $ in the markets, and as a result are going to have less to spend on second and luxury homes, of which there are many in the area. Even though some may still have the $, these same retirees are going to more closely scrutinize how much $ they spend on such housing. I have little doubt housing demand and prices are going to take a hit in the Asheville area. I follow housing very closely and more specifically in Champion Hills and Kenmure in Hendersonville/Flat Rock. Sales of homes (post the start of the virus) have come to a halt. Prices are already droping. There was a recent price drop of 13.8% of a beautiful house in Champion Hills. This is only going to get worse. It's only a matter of time before builders and sellers realize they are going to have to dramatically lower prices to be able to sell, and even then, it may take a long time.
Asheville's housing market will ultimately be ok, because it is a highly desirable place to live (both for retirees and others). The issue now and in the near to intermediate future is prices, whether buying or building. Keep in mind, many retirees have lost $ in the markets, and as a result are going to have less to spend on second and luxury homes, of which there are many in the area. Even though some may still have the $, these same retirees are going to more closely scrutinize how much $ they spend on such housing. I have little doubt housing demand and prices are going to take a hit in the Asheville area. I follow housing very closely and more specifically that in Champion Hills and Kenmure in the Hendersonville/Flat Rock. Sales of homes (post the start of the virus) have come to a halt. Prices are already droping. There was a recent price drop of 13.8% of a beautiful house in Champion Hills. This is only going to get worse. It's only a matter of time before builders and sellers realize they are going to have to dramatically lower prices to be able to sell, and even then, it may take a long time.
Only if they sell now, and I am confident that within a year or 2 at the most, those losses will be recovered.
Only if they sell now, and I am confident that within a year or 2 at the most, those losses will be recovered.
I agree-housing prices will come back, just a matter of how long it takes. If this drags out a while (I suspect it might), it may take longer than you think.
I agree-housing prices will come back, just a matter of how long it takes. If this drags out a while (I suspect it might), it may take longer than you think.
Thats certainly possible, although its very early. We don't even know how much, if any, actual drop in prices will happen. Its a very rare occurrence. 2008-2009 is the only meaningful price drop in median home prices nationwide in the past 70 years.
I was speaking of the stock market in my previous post.
Asheville's housing market will ultimately be ok, because it is a highly desirable place to live (both for retirees and others). The issue now and in the near to intermediate future is prices, whether buying or building. Keep in mind, many retirees have lost $ in the markets, and as a result are going to have less to spend on second and luxury homes, of which there are many in the area. Even though some may still have the $, these same retirees are going to more closely scrutinize how much $ they spend on such housing. I have little doubt housing demand and prices are going to take a hit in the Asheville area. I follow housing very closely and more specifically in Champion Hills and Kenmure in Hendersonville/Flat Rock. Sales of homes (post the start of the virus) have come to a halt. Prices are already droping. There was a recent price drop of 13.8% of a beautiful house in Champion Hills. This is only going to get worse. It's only a matter of time before builders and sellers realize they are going to have to dramatically lower prices to be able to sell, and even then, it may take a long time.
I watch the market very close in Asheville around the $300K or less range. I haven't seen anything drop yet and as a matter of fact, I see asking prices higher on land. So far, it seems business as usual for the real estate market in Asheville.
I watch the market very close in Asheville around the $300K or less range. I haven't seen anything drop yet and as a matter of fact, I see asking prices higher on land. So far, it seems business as usual for the real estate market in Asheville.
Although, it's starting to have an impact on higher-end home prices, I suspect it's still too early to see much of an impact on most residential real estate yet. Will be interesting to watch what happens to prices as the number of days houses stay on the market increases. As this time increases and prices likely decrease (how much is still uncertain, and likely dependent on the depth of the recession), people will have to make a decision to wait it out, sell for a lower price, or take their house off the market.
Although, it's starting to have an impact on higher-end home prices, I suspect it's still too early to see much of an impact on most residential real estate yet. Will be interesting to watch what happens to prices as the number of days houses stay on the market increases. As this time increases and prices likely decrease (how much is still uncertain, and likely dependent on the depth of the recession), people will have to make a decision to wait it out, sell for a lower price, or take their house off the market.
And with many potential buyers now dealing with job losses, unemployment, foreclosures, repossessions and BK’s on their credit reports, reduced incomes and savings, plunging credit scores and loss of job security combined with known lender issues and stricter guidelines going forward for those who can actually still get a loan, the pool of qualified applicants and buyers will shrink considerably and force sellers to make drastic moves.
And these types of buyers were the ones who have typically been flooding the market over the last decade buying up homes on borrowed and remortgaged money resulting from a prosperous economy. In doing so they were driving up prices with their over asking and “sold in a week” offers, hence why the builders of $500+ sq ft homes in the area WERE NEVER selling homes worth their price to begin with if it weren't for the high demand / low supply market created by these same buyers.
You wont see drastic price reductions just yet as the economy is still shell shocked and people are still scrambling thinking a face mask and stimulus check will solve their issues. Give it 3 to 6 months when homes are going foreclosure / pre-foreclosure from homeowners and sellers falling behind on their payments and trying to quickly get out from under their homes. It’s unfortunate but inevitable, even here in TN and much more in AVL.
Last edited by VinceTheExplorer; 04-15-2020 at 12:41 AM..
And with many potential buyers now dealing with job losses, unemployment, foreclosures, repossessions and BK’s on their credit reports, reduced incomes and savings, plunging credit scores and loss of job security combined with known lender issues and stricter guidelines going forward for those who can actually still get a loan, the pool of qualified applicants and buyers will shrink considerably and force sellers to make drastic moves.
Thats a much too pessimistic view of the situation, imo. This article is a good read for a different POV, and outlines key differences between 2020 and 2008:
My opinion is we are somewhere in-between those two assessments.
My heart is leaning toward believing USA Today, but my gut is leaning more to VTE's comments.
USA-T lost me when they claim most Americans are saving 8% of their salaries. I have seen other assessments that claim otherwise, especially with the Asheville area heavily dependent upon food service and delivery jobs.
I did take note of the other differences in the economy since 2008 and I think they are spot on.
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