Conference realignment: Georgia Tech to BIG 10 (Louisville, Boston: fit in, private school, moving)

[ChefRamsey]

Originally Posted by JAS

I'm an FSU alum/fan, so here's my take ...

One reason why UNC/Duke would forego additional dollars from the SEC/B1G is because they don't have the same commitment to football as other southern schools. Both schools already have large academic endowments and athletic departments well-funded to keep their hoops programs and olympic/other sports highly competitive. UNC tried a few times to ramp up their football program in recent years, but Mack Brown left for Texas and their recent academic/football scandals put an end to those attempts. They don't *need* to give up their high standing and culture in the ACC in order to chase some extra money (which they don't necessarily need).

Contrast this with FSU, which strives to compete at the highest level in football but doesn't have the same deep pockets as Duke or UNC. Also, FSU recruits against a handful of other well-funded SEC schools. FSU needs the $$ in order to keep up with its non-ACC competitors, which is why it is seeking a better financial solution. UNC/Duke don't have this concern.

If FSU, GT, Clemson, and others decide to leave the ACC, that would likely prompt UNC/Duke to look elsewhere. But I don't see UNC/Duke leading the way out of the ACC ahead of everyone else. Actually, I could also see UNC aligning itself more with UVA than with Duke .. both are state schools who have some potential for success in football. They were rivals before the UNC/Duke rivalry even existed. I could see UVA/UNC leaving for the SEC/B1G, for example, ahead of UNC/Duke (especially since the financial value for the conferences is weighted heavily towards football dollars and new markets).

Interesting take, but I still think the almighty dollar will prevail. The SEC network(in 2014) is expected to bring a 50% increase in SEC earnings - almost 10 million to each school - up to 14 million. That isn't even including the new contract that will be negotiated per adding of TAMU and Missouri. BIG 10 network is such a massive cash cow - way more than ACC's potential network(but I don't think there is room for a fourth..I barely think there is room for a third.) ACC is in a decent position, don't get me wrong..but I don't think any ACC school really cares about preservation. They do see the SEC/BIG 10 as the window of opportunity. It's about the money. I don't think UNC will aline itself with UVA because of geography. UNC-Duke are a packaged deal, but hey maybe SEC will just try to nab UNC? It's possible?

Bottom line can be this: BIG 10 is going to go after someone. The only possibility i see is an ACC team or maybe ND. Even if it is ND, SEC will counter that..and again, where will they look? ACC. By some miracle if ACC is saved, we have the big 12 meeting coming up next week. Where will they look? ACC.

Either way, I think in 2-3 weeks we'll see a different ACC, and that's why I think that it's possible "solid" schools will consider movement.

[MathmanMathman]

Things might hinge on Maryland's lawsuit against the ACC over the $50 million exit fee. Unless it is substantially lowered, that will probably freeze out an ACC team from accepting a Big 12 offer.

[ChefRamsey]

Originally Posted by MathmanMathman

Things might hinge on Maryland's lawsuit against the ACC over the $50 million exit fee. Unless it is substantially lowered, that will probably freeze out an ACC team from accepting a Big 12 offer.

I think UNC/UVA/Duke/Tech can manage that blow.


But you're right, that is definitely one hell of an obstacle. Maybe if more schools join Maryland...?

[dichloromethane]

I would prefer to see Georgia Tech join the BIG 10. The amount of money that would flow into Tech would be phenomenal. The ACC is a great conference, but the BIG 10 will offer Tech more in terms of value, earning potential, popularity, prestige and research partnerships. It would certainly be a step up for them. Location would be a concern, but there is no way we can let GT join the Big 12 conference. It wouldn't be without complications, but I think it would be very beneficial.

After the SEC network takes off, we can expect much greater revenue for UGA and this whole region. It would be great if Tech could also get a higher revenue. I'd prefer big 10/SEC land over SEC/ACC land any day.

I think UNC and Duke to SEC is a bit of a stretch though. We'll have to see. I'm sure the SEC will expand, but I don't think they can bring over UNC and Duke. NCSU and VT are possible. It wouldn't be the most academically or financially exciting move, but it would bring us an expanded market.

[ChefRamsey]

Originally Posted by dichloromethane

I would prefer to see Georgia Tech join the BIG 10. The amount of money that would flow into Tech would be phenomenal. The ACC is a great conference, but the BIG 10 will offer Tech more in terms of value, earning potential, popularity, prestige and research partnerships. It would certainly be a step up for them. Location would be a concern, but there is no way we can let GT join the Big 12 conference. It wouldn't be without complications, but I think it would be very beneficial.

After the SEC network takes off, we can expect much greater revenue for UGA and this whole region. It would be great if Tech could also get a higher revenue. I'd prefer big 10/SEC land over SEC/ACC land any day.

I think UNC and Duke to SEC is a bit of a stretch though. We'll have to see. I'm sure the SEC will expand, but I don't think they can bring over UNC and Duke. NCSU and VT are possible. It wouldn't be the most academically or financially exciting move, but it would bring us an expanded market.

The big 10 would be best for Tech. Maybe we could even get a new bowl game in ATL? All this expansion may lead to the forming on one.

[mich2fla]

As someone from the B1G country, I would love to see GT get admitted.

I believe Delany wants to go big, he is not stopping at 16. The rumor I have heard in the past: the B1G wants to expand to 32 teams, with 4 divisions of 8 teams for ALL sports. It will mean to acquire a whole conference down the road. We'll see how that plays out in the next several years. The dynamics of college sports will be changing once again.

[gtcorndog]

Originally Posted by ChefRamsey

Yeah for ball. Realignment isn't about the ball, it's about the money and academics and nothing else. Think about it. Would Rutgers and Maryland be in the BIG 10 if it was about what's best for the sport? LOL

Louisville isn't AAU and the school has just about as much money as Rutgers and Maryland. 22k enrollment.

Louisville has a superior football program too.

Maryland football is a dumpster fire right now and will be for the foreseeable future. There is a reason they averaged around 30,000 fans a game in a 60,000 seat stadium.. They suck.

Meanwhile Louisville went to and won a BCS bowl game blowing out Florida. Louisville has a larger athletic budget than Maryland by far. They have a better fan following as well. They might not have as large of a student population, but that is largely meaningless if you have a large sidewalk fan contingent.

AAU? Who cares? B1G might, but the ACC would gladly trade Maryland for Louisville.

You keep talking about money in the context of the school's endowment. That is completely separate from the finances of an athletic association. Louisville's athletic revenue far outpaces both Rutgers and Maryland.

[gtcorndog]

Originally Posted by ChefRamsey

I think UNC/UVA/Duke/Tech can manage that blow.

On what basis are you making that statement?

[gtcorndog]

Lets look at some additional facts on the Big Ten. While chasing the money today might seem like a smart move for some of these schools, it does create long term problems.

BigTen is scrambling to try to move into markets that might still have growth potential. If you look at their current footprint you'll see some trends:

BigTen footprint:

In 1970, their footprint held 29.6% of the US population
In 1990, their footprint held 25.1% of the US population
In 2010, their footprint held 22.4% of the US population
By 2030, their footprint is expected to hold 19.1% of the US population

Likewise, the SEC has seen their current footprint grow as follows:

In 1970, their footprint held 23.7% of the US population
In 1990, their footprint held 28.8% of the US population
In 2010, their footprint held 31.0% of the US population
By 2030, their footprint is expected to hold 31.2% of the US population

See a problem?

Personally I don't think moving into Maryland helps them much at all as Maryland's size and growth rate doesn't solve their long term problem. It might help them in the short term secure more TV money, but I don't see it as a long term, strategic solution.

The BigTen really needs to expand south and try to get into the growing Sun Belt states to preserve their power and increase their ability to recruit the southern athletes. I don't know if they have a move at this point, but I believe prior to the Nebraska addition, they should have looked to aggressively add 4 schools from more southern states. UVA, UNC, GT, UMD, Miami, Vandy, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri all could've helped them move in this direction. The geography would've gotten weird perhaps, but it would've given them a long term growth strategy that would've helped them maintain a large footprint, but also target the recruits in the south that they need to be successful.

Any school joining the Big Ten today is joining a group of colleges that are in shrinking states. This cannot be overlooked from a long term perspective. Why an extra $5-10 million a year sounds great now, how much more will you get 15 years from now with the shifting demographics.

Thinking strategically you'll see there are even more reasons why the Big Ten is not in the drivers seat like many think. Hell, they had to add Rutgers and Maryland who add next to nothing athletically and have very small fanbases to try to keep Penn State from leaving. That doesn't sound like a position of power to me.

[gtcorndog]

Originally Posted by ChefRamsey

The big 10 would be best for Tech. Maybe we could even get a new bowl game in ATL? All this expansion may lead to the forming on one.

Good call. We really need a 35th bowl game.