MARTA transit plan includes 21 miles of light rail (Atlanta: home, buy)

[cqholt]

MoreMARTA's June outreach schedule

[SEAandATL]

Originally Posted by autolycus25

It's already been announced that $100MM in bonds will be issued in FY19. It looks like the announcement is going to be which projects will get that money. Also looks like a big chunk of it is going to GA400. I assume that's going to be for "BRT".

You assumed right. And I knew his major announcement was going to be nothing to get excited about. It's basically going to be "glorified GRTA Express buses".

[Need4Camaro]

Originally Posted by jsvh

Define "AVs being common". I'd say more 1 to 3 decades. And if your definition of common is a more liberal "passing at least one autonomous capable vehicle during your daily commute" then we are already there.

The technology to do it is already there but that isn't the problem...

Common means the average commute can actually use them, which currently...they cannot.

There's still a bunch of legal frameworks that would need to be alleviated before they can truly be used by the average commuter and it would need to be worked out across all 50 states. Some states prohibit the operation of any motor vehicle without a occupant driver, others allow for it but have distinct ways of identifying said driver. Most laws currently in effect allow for the vehicles to be used for testing purposes and currently there are only a handful of states that fully authorize their use while most remain unclear or actually disprove of their use (New York being an example.) --- I wouldn't hold my breath waiting on the Feds sorting out that mess.

Then there's the costs -- They aren't cheap... and although they are innovative, the manufactures of them are standing up to take alot more liability than they ever have before... its going to be awhile before self driving cars dominate the highways... ALOT more testing will be done... but the average driver isnt going to be riding one anytime soon.

[arjay57]

There's a great article in yesterday's Curbed about some of the outside-the-box thinking about transit that's going on down at the Aerotropolis.

One of the options they're considering is PRT, or Personal Rapid Transit. PRT involves “lightweight, driverless vehicle[s], which can be deployed on networks of interconnected tracks.”

Sounds like a possibly excellent way to resolve the last mile issue you've got with light rail. Hopefully MARTA is looking at this, too.

Around Atlanta’s airport, study launches to examine possible innovative transit options

Personal Rapid Transit

[demonta4]

So what was the announcement?

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by demonta4

So what was the announcement?

GS 400 Express Lanes and Bus Rapid Transit

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

The technology to do it is already there but that isn't the problem...

Common means the average commute can actually use them, which currently...they cannot.

There's still a bunch of legal frameworks that would need to be alleviated before they can truly be used by the average commuter and it would need to be worked out across all 50 states. Some states prohibit the operation of any motor vehicle without a occupant driver, others allow for it but have distinct ways of identifying said driver. Most laws currently in effect allow for the vehicles to be used for testing purposes and currently there are only a handful of states that fully authorize their use while most remain unclear or actually disprove of their use (New York being an example.) --- I wouldn't hold my breath waiting on the Feds sorting out that mess.

Then there's the costs -- They aren't cheap... and although they are innovative, the manufactures of them are standing up to take alot more liability than they ever have before... its going to be awhile before self driving cars dominate the highways... ALOT more testing will be done... but the average driver isnt going to be riding one anytime soon.

I'd still stick to my timeline with that definition. I think Uber / Lyft is already "priming the pump" for AV taxis. I take Uber-pool / Lyft-line regularly and very surprised how many people are using it to go to / from work. I'd say even the majority of people I am riding with. And honestly, it is already more economical in many cases already.

To be honest, MARTA has been losing a lot of business from me to Lyft / Uber because the prices have gotten so low. For example I was coming from NE unincorporated DeKalb this morning and in the past I would get Uber / Lyft to the closest MARTA station (Chamblee or Lindbergh in this case) and take the train in to downtown from there. But now prices are so low it is cheaper to just take Uber / Lyft the whole way. It was ~$3.30 to take it to MARTA or ~$3.80 to just take Lyft-Line all the way to downtown. Sure we picked up / dropped off other people on the way, still totally worth it. Those prices will only go down once they can transition to AVs.

Laws are not looking to be a major barrier to AVs either. The Feds are not blocking AVs and even have ledgislation in the works to prevent states from doing so: https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/5/17...ion-washington

[cqholt]

Originally Posted by jsvh

I'd still stick to my timeline with that definition. I think Uber / Lyft is already "priming the pump" for AV taxis. I take Uber-pool / Lyft-line regularly and very surprised how many people are using it to go to / from work. I'd say even the majority of people I am riding with. And honestly, it is already more economical in many cases already.

To be honest, MARTA has been losing a lot of business from me to Lyft / Uber because the prices have gotten so low. For example I was coming from NE unincorporated DeKalb this morning and in the past I would get Uber / Lyft to the closest MARTA station (Chamblee or Lindbergh in this case) and take the train in to downtown from there. But now prices are so low it is cheaper to just take Uber / Lyft the whole way. It was ~$3.30 to take it to MARTA or ~$3.80 to just take Lyft-Line all the way to downtown. Sure we picked up / dropped off other people on the way, still totally worth it. Those prices will only go down once they can transition to AVs.

Laws are not looking to be a major barrier to AVs either. The Feds are not blocking AVs and even have ledgislation in the works to prevent states from doing so: https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/5/17...ion-washington

Artificially keeping prices low, what happens when they burn thru all their cash?

[autolycus25]

Originally Posted by jsvh

To be honest, MARTA has been losing a lot of business from me to Lyft / Uber because the prices have gotten so low. For example I was coming from NE unincorporated DeKalb this morning and in the past I would get Uber / Lyft to the closest MARTA station (Chamblee or Lindbergh in this case) and take the train in to downtown from there. But now prices are so low it is cheaper to just take Uber / Lyft the whole way. It was ~$3.30 to take it to MARTA or ~$3.80 to just take Lyft-Line all the way to downtown. Sure we picked up / dropped off other people on the way, still totally worth it. Those prices will only go down once they can transition to AVs.

Originally Posted by cqholt

Artificially keeping prices low, what happens when they burn thru all their cash?

cqholt is right. I'll bet $3.80 is an unsustainable price even without human labor. Current fuel + wear and tear (and depreciation) + insurance costs are estimated in the $0.50/mile range for a personal car. That's for an average car, not one with expensive hardware (and R&D costs) required for automation. $3.80 gets you 7-8 miles without paying a driver a single penny.

[samiwas1]

Originally Posted by jsvh

Those prices will only go down once they can transition to AVs.

I'm not sure that's true. As it is now, Uber/Lyft has to pay only the driver for their share of the fare. They do not pay for gas, maintenance, or anything else. In the case of AVs, they will need a full time staff of people to maintain the cars and clean the cars, and they will have to pay for the cars. They will have to have somewhere for cars to go during off-peak times, and facilities for performing maintenance on fleets of thousands of cars in each city. They will be picking up an enormous amount of extra costs when they go AV. Uber is already losing billions per quarter, and Left is doing only slightly better. $3.80 is not reasonable for a 10-mile hired-car trip.