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Justin Verlander has to undergo Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to pitch again before 2022. That uses up the reminder of his contract, although Houston will be paying him 33 million dollars while he recuperates.
After that he will be a 39 year old free agent coming off TJ surgery. Verlander is already a fully qualified HoF candidate whether he ever pitches again, but between this shortened season and the arm injury, it probably means he will not reach 300 career wins if he does continue.
And that's a shame, GS. Had this been a full season and had he stayed healthy, he could have possibly had a 20-win season. That certainly could have been possible. It will be interesting to see if the Astros can somehow work out a deal with JV, but it's a heavy price.
Okay, so the Astros have just dispatched the Oakland A's in the ALDS. They just became the fifth team in major league history to advance to the ALCS four years in a row. And this despite losing the regular season series against those same A's where it looked like Oakland had Houston's number. 'Stros got it done!
And Zack Greinke actually got to start today after a brief arm scare. Just didn't make it through five innings today.
Now, it's on to San Diego while we await the Yanks-Rays winner.
In any year, it's not really about who played the best all year but who is playing the best right now. Every team is capable of getting hot and they are hot at just the right time. And especially this year when there really is no "home field advantage". The advantage earned in the regular season - playing in your own park with your own fans getting loud - isn't there this year.
It's Framber Valdez who will get the first start for the 'Stros in San Diego against the Rays. The offense is finally getting it going, and it will need to keep up against the Rays' pitching. You don't see a team upsetting two division winners every year.
You don't see a team upsetting two division winners every year.
It has happened as recently as 2014. After knocking off the Pirates in one game, the wild card Giants beat the Central winner, St. Louis, and then the Eastern winner, the Nationals.
No sub .500 club has ever made it to the Series, much less won it. The worst to make it and lose was the Mets in '73 who were 82-79 in the regular season. The worst record ever for a Series winner was the 2006 Cardinals who went 83-78.
It has happened as recently as 2014. After knocking off the Pirates in one game, the wild card Giants beat the Central winner, St. Louis, and then the Eastern winner, the Nationals.
No sub .500 club has ever made it to the Series, much less won it. The worst to make it and lose was the Mets in '73 who were 82-79 in the regular season. The worst record ever for a Series winner was the 2006 Cardinals who went 83-78.
Had this been a 162-game season, obviously, there'd have been no telling what kind of finish the Astros would have had. I doubt it would have even been sub-.500 like what we saw, but they would not have won 100 games as they have. What's most impressive is that this is a different group than what we've seen.
As it is, GS, the fun now really begins tomorrow (at this writing). Even if Houston loses Saturday, it'd still be one whale of an achievement just to overcome a three-game deficit in the ALCS (after beating two pretty good division champs) and make it to Game 7. As you may know, the Astros are only the second team ever to get there after such a deficit.
Imagine if the Astros end up winning. They have a bullpen with one non-rookie right now. Their rotation has been pieced together with newcomers (and no Justin Verlander), along with Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr, but they've come together very well. Their batting order (while mostly unchanged from past years) has had to overcome several slumps. And, yet, here they are.
Had this been a 162-game season, obviously, there'd have been no telling what kind of finish the Astros would have had. I doubt it would have even been sub-.500 like what we saw, but they would not have won 100 games as they have. What's most impressive is that this is a different group than what we've seen.
Probably not but after 60 games in 2019 the Nationals were six games below .500 and in 4th place yet won 93 games. The striking difference is that the Nationals entered the playoffs brimming with confidence after playing lights out for the past few months whereas the Astros limped in and displaying no visible signs of confidence.
Baseball needs a jolt of excitement. Houston are great anti-heroes. Hope they go all the way.
Oh, well, so much for the epic comeback. Houston now needs to go out and get one available starting pitcher for next year, as JV will be out. They've got Valdez on the verge of something special, as well as Urquidy. Both need to build durability. Likewise with McCullers. Add a healthy Greinke to the mix, and you'll have a good starting five. With all those rookies in the bullpen having just gotten some playoff experience and seeing what it's like, this will bode very well for a relief corps that now just needs to be more defined in what role each guy will play.
I expect Springer to work some kind of a deal out with the 'Stros, but I doubt Brantley will return. Neither will Reddick, so the Astros will need to find a good free agent outfielder to fill a void there. Their farm system needs a little rejuvenation. They'll contend again if they can get a couple of good veterans to go with the kids.
I had assumed that the hiring of Dusty Baker would be a matter of Dusty having to conform himself to Astro thinking rather than him reshaping the club in his style. I figured that the way to check on this would be compare his career rates in stolen base attempts, sacrifice bunts and intentional walks to his 2020 rates. Those are three things which metric analysis discourages.
It is as I expected. Dusty's averages in all three areas were below his career rates. He went from about league average in stolen base attempts to 10% below average. Sac bunts went from 2.5% to 1.1%. IBB were down 0.7% to 0.3%.
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