The Great California Exodus Accelerates (San Diego, San Francisco: buyer, per square foot, car)

[sav858]

Originally Posted by Losfrisco

You said you weren't sure why "this U-haul thing" is even being questioned. There's one reason to.

Because of some random survey of 7 people in Manhattan? So you honestly think that the majority of this U-Haul shortage is likely being caused by intrastate moves?

This isn't anything new...

Why it’s 4x as much to rent moving truck from CA to TX than reverse

The rental company also pointed to its latest growth report, which found Texas saw the biggest net gain in U-Haul trucks in 2017, while California was dead last among the 50 states.

U-Haul needs to get those trucks back to where they’re needed, so “prompting customers with very low pricing to bring equipment into those states is one way we can address that challenge.”

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by sav858

I'm referring to domestic migration, not overall population growth. CA's population growth has come from births and international immigration for the last several decades.

California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration

For many years, more people have been leaving California for other states than have been moving here. According to data from the American Community Survey, from 2007 to 2016, about 5 million people moved to California from other states, while about 6 million left California. On net, the state lost 1 million residents to domestic migration—about 2.5 percent of its total population. These population losses are low in historical terms. The graph below shows data from the Internal Revenue Service on the movement of income tax filers in and out of California since 1990. (Data on tax filers does not cover the entire population because some people do not earn enough income to necessitate filing taxes.) As the graph shows, net out-migration from 1990 to 2006 was, on average, more than double what is was in the most recent ten years.

OIC. Okay.

Now then, I always ask why this matters. In what way is it meaningful? Not sure if you have an opinion to share, but I am always interested seeing how often this topic rages as if the domestic migration numbers somehow indicate demise. Not saying you are in that camp of attitude.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

OIC. Okay.

Now then, I always ask why this matters. In what way is it meaningful? Not sure if you have an opinion to share, but I am always interested seeing how often this topic rages as if the domestic migration numbers somehow indicate demise. Not saying you are in that camp of attitude.

I don't think it necessarily indicates demise but clearly shows a lot of people are unhappy with and/or unable to afford to live in CA. I think it matters who is leaving and once you start to see high income earners with a net loss then that may pose a big problem down the road.

[Losfrisco]

Originally Posted by sav858

Because of some random survey of 7 people in Manhattan? So you honestly think that the majority of this U-Haul shortage is likely being caused by intrastate moves?

This isn't anything new...

Why it’s 4x as much to rent moving truck from CA to TX than reverse

The rental company also pointed to its latest growth report, which found Texas saw the biggest net gain in U-Haul trucks in 2017, while California was dead last among the 50 states.

U-Haul needs to get those trucks back to where they’re needed, so “prompting customers with very low pricing to bring equipment into those states is one way we can address that challenge.”

Its a large state with multiple 1 Trillion dolllar plus GDP regions completely independent of each other. So, yes, its a real possibility.

Short of U-Haul actually having signed declarations from customers to go along with all these rentals saying "I'm fleeing Commiefornia for the great state of Texas, and I'm never looking back!", I think we can assume it.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by Losfrisco

Its a large state with multiple 1 Trillion dolllar plus GDP regions completely independent of each other. So, yes, its a real possibility.

Short of U-Haul actually having signed declarations from customers to go along with all these rentals saying "I'm fleeing Commiefornia for the great state of Texas, and I'm never looking back!", I think we can assume it.

Then how is it a problem across the entire state?

[Igor Blevin]

Originally Posted by sav858

I don't think it necessarily indicates demise but clearly shows a lot of people are unhappy with and/or unable to afford to live in CA. I think it matters who is leaving and once you start to see high income earners with a net loss then that may pose a big problem down the road.

Affordability is the biggest problem, from everything I have read.

Many conservatives leave due to the politics, and even some liberals leave because crime is up, but the really big reason is home prices and cost of living. It is just getting really tough to afford to live in California under the median income and own a house, contribute to a 401k for retirement security. If you are in a high tax bracket, you pay a lot in taxes. If you can move that job to another state, even with a modest pay cut, you are going to come out ahead.

It's the economy. California is becoming a state of haves and have nots. More and more, the have nots are going to places with a lower cost of living.

[cedew]

Originally Posted by Igor Blevin

Affordability is the biggest problem, from everything I have read.

Many conservatives leave due to the politics, and even some liberals leave because crime is up, but the really big reason is home prices and cost of living. It is just getting really tough to afford to live in California under the median income and own a house, contribute to a 401k for retirement security. If you are in a high tax bracket, you pay a lot in taxes. If you can move that job to another state, even with a modest pay cut, you are going to come out ahead.

It's the economy. California is becoming a state of haves and have nots. More and more, the have nots are going to places with a lower cost of living.

So true. It shouldn't matter what side of the aisle a person is on, this should be very visible to Californians.

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by Igor Blevin

Affordability is the biggest problem, from everything I have read.

Many conservatives leave due to the politics, and even some liberals leave because crime is up, but the really big reason is home prices and cost of living. It is just getting really tough to afford to live in California under the median income and own a house, contribute to a 401k for retirement security. If you are in a high tax bracket, you pay a lot in taxes. If you can move that job to another state, even with a modest pay cut, you are going to come out ahead.

It's the economy. California is becoming a state of haves and have nots. More and more, the have nots are going to places with a lower cost of living.

This is unique to California? The whole world is traveling the same path. Even Mississippi will catch up on down the road.

[cedew]

Certainly not unique to anywhere, but it's one place where it can be pretty extreme. Hawaii is even worse.

[MechAndy]

My kids could only qualify for a $550K house even with a large down payment and they make good money.
Not stupid good money but respectfully good.
It’s that they are single income.

In Contra Costa County (Concord) next to the drive in movie theater off of Olivera dinky little 3/1 1,100 sqft WW11 homes with no yards go for that and the neighborhood is “so so” at best.
I consider it a crime area and they want 550K for these most have bars on the windows and there is graffiti in the area.
Similar prices in areas like Hayward or Fremont will get you bars on your windows and graffiti too.

One of my kids moved up here to the Olympic Peninsula in Washington and has a huge house in a good neighborhood on a half acre for $450k.
She also only has a 4 mile commute to a good paying job with no traffic.

My other kid is soon to follow.

That alone is making lots of young adults leave.