Is South Shore on the come up? (Chicago: high crime, townhomes)

[Slats Grobnick]

Originally Posted by BRU67

None thus far, though investors may be buying in the part of East Garfield Park north of I-290. And there's clear pressure on the northwest side of the Near West Side community area between the United Center and EGP due to rapid development in the West Loop.

However, this will be more developer dependent than in areas which have gentrified organically like West Town, Logan Square, Pilsen and East Humboldt Park. In other words, developers are going to have to build or renovate properties with high end finishes, amenities and, most importantly, high security to appeal to middle-class buyers and renters. People who might be willing to take a measure of risk (mitigated by security measures sufficient to make them feel safe of course) to have those extra things at a much lower price point than the West Loop or West Town.

You're not going to see cool hipster fashion leaders, artists and students moving into cheap properties in these 'hoods and creating a funky chic creative vibe. They're too dangerous and lack the vibrant working class charm that draw these first-wave gentrifiers in the first place. Why would you move to a scary looking block in East Garfield Park with boarded-up buildings, empty lots littered with trash, open air drug dealing, and regular gang shootings when you could just move a couple miles south to Little Village and not have to deal with that nearly as much?

So I don't think any predominantly African-American Chicago neighborhoods are going to gentrify any time soon. I can see those two neighborhoods I mentioned developing and improving, but it will be through a different process than gentrification. If it happens for the South Shore it will be the same way. But will the Obama Library be sufficient to create that developer interest? I've my doubts but we'll see.

For that reason, amateur investors tempted by these areas should beware. For one, professional investors who are well funded and know what they're doing may be sniffing around there, and they might be getting to good properties before they even hit the MLS. That means that pricing might not be in line with true present value, and properties that sophisticated investors have passed on may not be viable.

Second, even if you can get a good property for a good price, you might not be able to afford to offer the kind of amenities and security that good renters will be looking for to compensate for and mitigate against the risk and general inconvenience that they will be dealing with by living in those high-crime areas. Your professional investor competition will be able to offer these things, leaving you on the lower end of the tenant food chain, which is usually not a good place to be in neighborhoods like this.

I have been seeing more hipsters in Little Village but the reality is that Little Village is way further from downtown or any hip areas than EGP. Little Village is actually the last neighborhood in the city, plus the housing stock isn't as nice as in Bronzeville or East Garfield Park. You have some nice houses on the northern edge and by the Boulevard, but majority of their housing is really bland, but you can say the same about Bucktown, so it might not matter.

Most of the development going on in West Loop and Near West side is deep pocket investors with big plans, so you're correct, it's not going to go through an organic hipster phase. West Loop is actually looking very bland, they recently demolished a beautiful Italianate building to replace it with a horrendous generic huge condo building. That's development for you.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Slats Grobnick

South Loop

That was never an AA neighborhood, or any kind of real neighborhood for that matter. Tha South Loop began to become what it is now in the 1980s when developers started converting vacant warehouses into residential lofts. Then when that took root, more conversions and new construction followed. Again, developer driven. Not the same as organic gentrification.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Slats Grobnick

I have been seeing more hipsters in Little Village but the reality is that Little Village is way further from downtown or any hip areas than EGP. Little Village is actually the last neighborhood in the city, plus the housing stock isn't as nice as in Bronzeville or East Garfield Park. You have some nice houses on the northern edge and by the Boulevard, but majority of their housing is really bland, but you can say the same about Bucktown, so it might not matter.

Most of the development going on in West Loop and Near West side is deep pocket investors with big plans, so you're correct, it's not going to go through an organic hipster phase. West Loop is actually looking very bland, they recently demolished a beautiful Italianate building to replace it with a horrendous generic huge condo building. That's development for you.

EGP has attributes but it's going to take developers to bring them out due to the high crime and run down nature of that 'hood. I think you and I agree on that. I've been watching the market and you are literally seeing nothing coming to the regular MLS in EGP north of the expressway. That tells me that professional investors are active in there and buying properties behind the scenes like they've been doing in Pilsen for some years now or people are holding out and waiting. Or both.

[OKParker]

Originally Posted by BRU67

EGP has attributes but it's going to take developers to bring them out due to the high crime and run down nature of that 'hood. I think you and I agree on that. I've been watching the market and you are literally seeing nothing coming to the regular MLS in EGP north of the expressway. That tells me that professional investors are active in there and buying properties behind the scenes like they've been doing in Pilsen for some years now or people are holding out and waiting. Or both.

The number of properties south of Franklin, East of the park, North of 290, and West of the tracks is fairly low - there are a good number of vacant lots and this isn't that large an area. I definitely think that around the California green line stop is starting to gentrify based on how many white people I see getting off after work.

This area has so much potential with proximity to the city, great park nearby, and transit ability (1 metra, 2 L lines, one highway). The one thing holding it back, is definitely the high amount of gun violence.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Slats Grobnick

Little Village is actually the last neighborhood in the city, plus the housing stock isn't as nice as in Bronzeville or East Garfield Park. You have some nice houses on the northern edge and by the Boulevard, but majority of their housing is really bland, but you can say the same about Bucktown, so it might not matter.

As to the housing stock I'd strongly disagree. Maybe in the 1950s but have you been to EGP lately? Lots of vacant lots. I don't care how good the remaining graystones look. That looks terrible, blighted, and unwelcoming. You don't see many vacant lots in Little Village.

And as you said, it doesn't really matter. If housing stock was the deciding factor, then Berwyn would be gentrifying and not Bridgeport, LOL! Hipsters don't care about that as much as the overall vibe. I think LV's hodgepodge of architectural styles actually helps it in this regard.

[Alacran]

Originally Posted by EddieOlSkool

What largely Black neighborhood in Chicago has really ever gentrified anyway?

Cabrini

[noid_1985]

Originally Posted by EddieOlSkool

What largely Black neighborhood in Chicago has really ever gentrified anyway?

Near West Side, although not fully gentrified.

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Alacran

Cabrini

Developers leveled the Cabrini housing projects, kicked out the existing residents, and built gleaming new townhomes with high-end amenities that sold for a low price relative to other properties in Old Town. It didn't gentrify in the true sense of that word.

[EddieOlSkool]

Saw this property by the lake listed at 24k. Looks tempting but I probably won't be able to do anything with it anytime.

[Chicagoland60426]

I'll tell you what: South Shore has a better chance of gentrifying than Englewood. It's among the few very high crime predominiately AA areas that is still pretty much intacted with housing and high density for a southside 'hood. In that sense, it's no worse off than some hoods that are in rhe beginning stages of gentrification or has experience its first wave of hipsters such as Humbodt Park area. Also, it's around the same distance as its north side counterparts such as Rogers Park.