Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
OMG. Listen!!! I will repeat. City's don't grow forever. It's called a boom and a bust. HOUSTON WILL NOT KEEP ITS GROWTH. Philly grew 500,000 in 10 years. Who thought it would decline. All city's decline. Philly did and lost 600,000. Philly just left its decline. Chicago sad to say is still in it. Houston never had a bust. And is getting there's soon. Stop making me repeat.
Houston has already had a bust. It was in the 1980s. However the metro was able to recover despite cheap oil prices in the 1990s. At some point, I think this growth that Houston is currently experiencing will slow down or plateau unless we discover new technologies in energy either through a new extracting method or alternatives energy takes off in the region. However, I just don't see a rapid slow down within the next 10 to 15 years. According to future outlooks (they could be off), the United States is set to become the number one petroleum producer by the end of the decade. By around 2030, the United States could achieve energy independence. I have no doubt that Houston will be playing a large role in that expected energy growth. Again, these future outlooks and projections could be wrong, but there isn't really much evidence to suggest Houston is going to suffer a major decline like Detroit in the next 20 years. I'm no oil economist/expert though, so someone can correct me on these statements. Even compared to the 1980s, Houston should be able to cushion an incoming bust in energy because of our increased focus on logistics and medicine. One thing that could hinder Houston's growth is infrastructure and a long term drought in Texas.
As for DFW and Chicago, I don't see Philadelphia catching either of them in 20 years also. DFW is already larger than the Delaware Valley and currently the fastest growing metro by population. Also no inclination of future decline. Chicago is already over 3 million people larger than Philly with more or less the same rate of growth. No way it catches Chicago in two or three decades. Finally, there isn't evidence to suggest a large boom in population or economy is on the horizon for Philly. It would take a drastic change in metro boundaries to catch the future population of Sunbelt cities or other cities in the north its competing with.
As for DFW and Chicago, I don't see Philadelphia catching either of them in 20 years also. DFW is already larger than the Delaware Valley and currently the fastest growing metro by population. Also no inclination of future decline. Chicago is already over 3 million people larger than Philly with more or less the same rate of growth. No way it catches Chicago in two or three decades. Finally, there isn't evidence to suggest a large boom in population or economy is on the horizon for Philly. It would take a drastic change in metro boundaries to catch the future population of Sunbelt cities or other cities in the north its competing with.
I'm going to present 2 points of contention here on Philadelphias modest growth.
1. The metro boundaries are completely wacked. You are obviously going to get higher population and gdp growth rates in metroes that are 10,000 sq miles(NYC,LA,Chi,Hou,Dallas etc etc) than you will in a metro that is restricted to 5,000 sq miles(Philadelphia).
2. Geography is a hinderance and a natural enemy to population growth especially in the wealthy wooded suburbs N+W of Philadelphia. Its a civilization (4 M people) carved out of a forest. The 4 M includes only Phil and Bucks,Montgomery,Chester,Delaware Counties. South Jersey + N Del are another 2 M to fill out the regions population.
The Philadelphia area N+W of the city is not flat coastal land, praries or farmland that mass housing is easily built upon.
I'm going to present 2 points of contention here on Philadelphias modest growth.
1. The metro boundaries are completely wacked. You are obviously going to get higher population and gdp growth rates in metroes that are 10,000 sq miles(NYC,LA,Chi,Hou,Dallas etc etc) than you will in a metro that is restricted to 5,000 sq miles(Philadelphia).
That would be a good point if 6000 square miles of the DFW and Houston metro areas contributed anything significant. All but 3500-4000 square miles of the DFW area is ranching land, farm land, water, or small towns not connected to the urban area. I imagine the number for Houston is similar.
I'm not going to bother defending NYC, LA, or Chicago because they don't need it.
If we're talking density, you could have a point. For this discussion however, the point is non-existent.
This is the real Philadelphia's REAL metro gdp. Alot of our metro is fragmented. These are the cities added that are rightfully ours... (I left out Allentown) We should be 6th in CSA with Allentown. And in MSA we are 5th
Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD CSA $420.095 Billion:
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area $353,323
Reading, PA Metro Area $14,816
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ Metro Area $5,110
Trenton-Ewing, NJ Metro Area $26,946
Atlantic City-Hammonton Metro Area $19,9
In comparison to how other super sized metroes play "hey lets connect-the-dots" then Philadelphia could/should add Vineland-Millville, Ocean City, Lancaster and Dover which would take the total to $ 460 B.
That would be a good point if 6000 square miles of the DFW and Houston metro areas contributed anything significant. All but 3500-4000 square miles of the DFW area is ranching land, farm land, water, or small towns not connected to the urban area. I imagine the number for Houston is similar.
I'm not going to bother defending NYC, LA, or Chicago because they don't need it.
If we're talking density, you could have a point. For this discussion however, the point is non-existent.
By density he has no point either. Both Houston and dfw have denser urban areas than Philly. Houston and DFW get the same population of people in a smaller area than Philly. The core cities are denser but Houston and de has more consistent development out to the burbs. That's why the Philly boosters lie using weighed density
As for DFW and Chicago, I don't see Philadelphia catching either of them in 20 years also. DFW is already larger than the Delaware Valley and currently the fastest growing metro by population. Also no inclination of future decline. Chicago is already over 3 million people larger than Philly with more or less the same rate of growth. No way it catches Chicago in two or three decades. Finally, there isn't evidence to suggest a large boom in population or economy is on the horizon for Philly. It would take a drastic change in metro boundaries to catch the future population of Sunbelt cities or other cities in the north its competing with.
Actually... I agree with all of your points except for the one bolded. There are several signs pointing towards the beginning of a boom for Philadelphia.
By density he has no point either. Both Houston and dfw have denser urban areas than Philly. Houston and DFW get the same population of people in a smaller area than Philly. The core cities are denser but Houston and de has more consistent development out to the burbs. That's why the Philly boosters lie using weighed density
Uhhh I don't really think sprawl is something to brag about.
You never clarified. What do you have to show for you're assumption that Philly will explode with growth other than statements that can't be backed up and wishful thinking?
I'm not saying Philadelphia is going to explode... but there are several signs point towards a boom for Philadelphia.
-Residential is booming already- dozens of neighborhoods are being gentrified
-Ten year tax abatements are continuing to spur Residential construction EVERYWHERE
-The Universities are booming- particularly Temple, Drexel and Penn.
-The Hospitals are booming- particularly Penn, CHOP and Temple
-Retail and commercial is starting to pick up
-Manufacturing is starting to pick up
-Business growth is starting to pick up- several firms announced they will be moving to the city including a handful of tech firms. There are a BUNCH of startups in the city right now
-Comcast is growing uncontrollably- a lot of media related jobs spurring from this
-Amtrak's Northeast Highspeed Line (if it is ever built) will get you from Center City to Midtown Manhattan in 38 minutes
-New taxes... new property taxes and new means of revenue for the city is going to help reduce commercial property taxes (making it cheaper to construct new office buildings). The reworking of the tax structure is also going to help reduce the business privilege and business wage taxes
-KOZ is helping to spur some commercial growth
-Crime is dropping
-Philadelphia 2035 plan is going to see the reinvestment into many neighborhoods by the city
-Reinvestments in parks by the city
-the Philadelphia school district will get approx. $30 million more in funding by Governor Corbett
-SEPTA is going to get approx. $150 million more in funding from Governor Corbett...although they are still DRASTICALLY under their required operating budget
I will get you links if you want... just too lazy to do so right now.
I'm not saying Philadelphia is going to explode... but there are several signs point towards a boom for Philadelphia.
-Residential is booming already- dozens of neighborhoods are being gentrified
-Ten year tax abatements are continuing to spur Residential construction EVERYWHERE
-The Universities are booming- particularly Temple, Drexel and Penn.
-The Hospitals are booming- particularly Penn, CHOP and Temple
-Retail and commercial is starting to pick up
-Manufacturing is starting to pick up
-Business growth is starting to pick up- several firms announced they will be moving to the city including a handful of tech firms. There are a BUNCH of startups in the city right now
-Comcast is growing uncontrollably- a lot of media related jobs spurring from this
-Amtrak's Northeast Highspeed Line (if it is ever built) will get you from Center City to Midtown Manhattan in 38 minutes
-New taxes... new property taxes and new means of revenue for the city is going to help reduce commercial property taxes (making it cheaper to construct new office buildings). The reworking of the tax structure is also going to help reduce the business privilege and business wage taxes
-KOZ is helping to spur some commercial growth
-Crime is dropping
-Philadelphia 2035 plan is going to see the reinvestment into many neighborhoods by the city
-Reinvestments in parks by the city
-the Philadelphia school district will get approx. $30 million more in funding by Governor Corbett
-SEPTA is going to get approx. $150 million more in funding from Governor Corbett...although they are still DRASTICALLY under their required operating budget
I will get you links if you want... just too lazy to do so right now.
Obama has done a great job trying to get the country back in place, rep if you agree.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
