The Official Colorado Front Range Weather Thread (Denver, Louisville: house, rent)

[FromCalitoSteinerRanch]

OK, so we are driving out from TX for the second year in a row, and will be staying in Estes Park, and then Downtown Denver, this will be from 12/21-12/28. We are renting a 4WD, but with stock M+S tires, that may be useless for a real big snow storm. Anyways, does it look like snow this year?

I checked out some Web cams in Estes Park, and it appears that the snow is not there just yet. Needless to say, we are hoping for snow, but hopefully y'all won't mind our dream of a White Christmas.

Also, we will be at the Hyatt Regency, and it appears to be close to many attractions. Will there be public transporation in case we want to just not add one more SUV to the streets? If so, what kind of 3 day pass is good for out of staters? Thanks all.

[FromCalitoSteinerRanch]

Darn it! I just saw this now:

http://www.city-data.com/forum/1995508-post110.html

[Katiana]

Stupid question? Will there be snow around Christmas?

It's not a stupid question, but I don't know the answer, and neither does anyone else, this far out. I've seen it be 65 degrees at Christmas, and I've seen a couple of Christmas-time blizzards (one on Christmas Eve Day, I think, back in 1982).

Your SUV should be fine unless there is a blizzard.

There is plenty of public transportation in Denver. Google "RTD Denver". I'm not sure what kind of a 3 day pass you're looking for. Bus? Skiing? Admissions to attractions in Denver? You can buy all sorts of RTD discount tickets.

[b.adams]

Your odds of measurable snow are very low, statistically speaking. I think only 1 in 7 Christmas' in Denver include fresh snow. Its maybe 50/50 that there will be "some" snow, but probably a few days old and not so much to worry about.

Considering November is the 2nd snowiest month in Colorado, we haven't had jack. I think next week might be the first real snow event this month.

[oberon]

There was an article in The Rocky yesterday about how it's looking like a dry winter this year. Meteorologist quoted said he was concerned about the potential for drought come spring time. Considering the statistics and the report, I'd rate it as unlikely that there will be any snow on the ground in Denver on December 25, 2007.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by oberon

There was an article in The Rocky yesterday about how it's looking like a dry winter this year. Meteorologist quoted said he was concerned about the potential for drought come spring time. Considering the statistics and the report, I'd rate it as unlikely that there will be any snow on the ground in Denver on December 25, 2007.

Anytime moisture doesn't show up when it's supposed to, it's a matter of concern. That said, December is normally the driest or second driest month of the year in many places in Colorado. Early snows are not what make the mountain snowpack. Most of that usually comes after Christmas, much of in late winter and spring. Early snows are beneficial because the help insulate the ground, and keep the frost from going as deep. This helps with moisture absorption by the soil later in the winter, but the early snows usually are not the ones with big moisture content.

There is also not a strong statistical correlation between warm, dry falls being followed by warm, dry winters. A couple of the wettest, coldest winters in my memory occurred following long, abnormally dry and warm falls. Similarly, wet falls can often be followed by dry winters and springs.

It will be interesting to see what this winter brings. My personal opinion is that the Rocky Mountain West is locked into a long-term drought cycle where more years than not are probably going to see below normal precipitation, especially in winter. That is not good, and I hope that I am wrong about it.

[Katiana]

It will be interesting to see what this winter brings. My personal opinion is that the Rocky Mountain West is locked into a long-term drought cycle where more years than not are probably going to see below normal precipitation, especially in winter. That is not good, and I hope that I am wrong about it.

Well, that's what "they" have been saying for several years now.

[nelumbo]

For snow mavens, or anyone with Thanksgiving travel plans, you may wish to monitor the situation with a potential storm next Tuesday-Wednesday. It is far out (in time) and a difficult forecast for the models, but the general consensus is for some kind of system moving through central/eastern colorado and precip in the form of snow. It then moves eastward to wreak havoc with the Chicago area just in time for the brunt of holiday flights.

This map shows the forecast total liquid water equivalent precip from approx. 6 am Tuesday to 6 am Wednesday of next week, courtesy of a forecast model called GFS: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_p24_144l.gif
Multiply precip by about 10 to get total snow in inches, although at this point, I wouldn't trust this more than "decent chance of snow event sometime the middle of next week". If there is interest in similar output from other models/etc, I can post links.

I am supposed to drive to Albuquerque on Tuesday, so I am hoping the models start to trend slower with this system, or push it off somewhere else...

[Katiana]

It seems like every time we make plans to get together with our relatives in Colorado Springs, the weather turns bad. That is the plan for Thanksgiving.

[azcater]

We'll be visiting Denver over Thanksgiving and am wondering where we should go to play in the snow? We're from Phoenix, so snow is a novelty to us!

Thanks in advance~
Angela