[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

I don’t quite buy that. In both 1973 and 1998, it took well beyond April for the wetness to become normal precipitation. 1988 and 2010, however, did dry out that early. El Niño does not always fade from atmospheric memory immediately after the Pacific cools.

No doubt many times it took until summer to break out of EL Nino patterns, but who really knows what will/could happen. This could be one of the rainiest summers on record…or we could be deep in heat and drought by August – lol. An old college professor used to say the atmosphere is like a river with no banks. Until we know where the chess pieces are placed (and if they will stay in that spot?) - it’s hard to tell what the long-term pattern will do.

There does look to be less and less rain falling with each of these systems if you look at the numbers, though. Most of the area NWS stations had 4 + inches of rain in March (and no snow, which was nice), but April (normally the wetter month) is struggling to put out nearly as much rain. I think the clouds make it seem like there has been rain often - yet little rain actually falls. These last three days are a good example: Despite all the hype of a big rain producer, this system could not even produce ¾ of an inch of rain at NWS Bridgeport. The whole system recorded just 0.68 inches of rain in 3 days!




Another positive thing is that the cloudy pattern has kept nights warmer than normal (on the shoreline the growing season as started). I've had no frost since the end of March, and it looks like at least for us or the shoreline there chance of freeze is over. The final thing that does not seem like it would be that way with the cloudy days we've had...we are actually running above normal for monthly mean temps




In any event...some good gardening/landscaping weather on tap until the Thur....sunshine, lows in the mid 40's and daily highs 60 to 70 F. I have two shrubs to plant today - lol.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

After a nice warm up next week, the last part of April looks to be on the cool side for the Eastern US.
It all evens out in the end. Long cycles. Short cycles. Warm. Cold. Always trying to find balance.

But what's been going on in recent decades is the "balance" still ends up warmer than previous "balance" (i.e. normals and averages), it's true one or two events don't mean anything (in either direction, though there's been more of the warm extremes than the cold ones), it's how it all averages out. Time will tell.

That said, this isn't last April when it was 90+ degrees two days in a row in NYC right now (and on tomorrow's date the earliest in the year ever low of 70+)

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by simonusa3

No doubt many times it took until summer to break out of EL Nino patterns, but who really knows what will/could happen. This could be one of the rainiest summers on record…or we could be deep in heat and drought by August – lol. An old college professor used to say the atmosphere is like a river with no banks. Until we know where the chess pieces are placed (and if they will stay in that spot?) - it’s hard to tell what the long-term pattern will do.

In 1973 we hit mid-80's around Easter, then cooled considerably, followed by an early-June heat wave. Late June had a lot of rain. The really special heat that breaking Niño-early Niña summer was in late August-early September, falling just below similar heart records for 1953 and slightly above 2010 at the identical times. 1970 had similar back-and-forths at slightly lower temperatures but going almost through September. How do I remember; it was 80° on my May 2 Bar Mitzvah and 90° at my buddies' next-week Bar Mitzvah. Our club's pool stayed open through slightly after the equinox.

Originally Posted by simonusa3

There does look to be less and less rain falling with each of these systems if you look at the numbers, though. Most of the area NWS stations had 4 + inches of rain in March (and no snow, which was nice), but April (normally the wetter month) is struggling to put out nearly as much rain. I think the clouds make it seem like there has been rain often - yet little rain actually falls. These last three days are a good example: Despite all the hype of a big rain producer, this system could not even produce ¾ of an inch of rain at NWS Bridgeport. The whole system recorded just 0.68 inches of rain in 3 days!

Definitely true though an embedded thunderstorm did create some drama. As far as rain amounts we seem to be tracking 1973 so far.

Originally Posted by simonusa3

Another positive thing is that the cloudy pattern has kept nights warmer than normal (on the shoreline the growing season as started). I've had no frost since the end of March, and it looks like at least for us or the shoreline there chance of freeze is over. The final thing that does not seem like it would be that way with the cloudy days we've had...we are actually running above normal for monthly mean temps

Persistent overcast during the mild-to-warm months often has a temperature-raising effect.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jbgusa

Persistent overcast during the mild-to-warm months often has a temperature-raising effect.

On the overall average, yes, but what it does is usually lower the daytime highs as it lessens the heating effect of the sun but raises the nighttime lows as it acts as a blanket to keep heat from escaping.

A lot of places through the decades have had small, sometimes even not statistically significant rises in the highs but most of the "warming" is actually in the nighttime lows. Now there can be a lot of debate as to why (and why since it's part of the reason we are cloudier and get more precip in the past), be it growing UHI, greenhouse effect from CO2 etc or even just natural causes (or perhaps a combination of all 3), but just noting a fact here, no point or agenda on this one.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

On the overall average, yes, but what it does is usually lower the daytime highs as it lessens the heating effect of the sun but raises the nighttime lows as it acts as a blanket to keep heat from escaping.

A lot of places through the decades have had small, sometimes even not statistically significant rises in the highs but most of the "warming" is actually in the nighttime lows. Now there can be a lot of debate as to why (and why since it's part of the reason we are cloudier and get more precip in the past), be it growing UHI, greenhouse effect from CO2 etc or even just natural causes (or perhaps a combination of all 3), but just noting a fact here, no point or agenda on this one.

I did not say anything about an agenda. I fact you are right. During the 1960's the three-year moving average high and low in Central Park were 85° and 68°, resulting in a mean of 76.5, rounded in the media to 77°. That average is now 85 and 70 (a few days 71), resulting in a similar average of 77, with a few days calculated at 78. The average daily high has been 85° throughout, but the lows have fluctuated, generally increasing. UHI has unquestionably increased. In 1969, where I live, White Plains and Stamford barely qualified as cities; now both are metropolises, umbillically tied to NYC. Ditto areas such as Paramus, NJ. The result is an urban core with a much bigger radius.

Other areas such as Boston are no different. Once a tightly packed city, its effective urban area goes about 10 or so miles outside of Route 128 a/k/a I-95.

[Cambium]

YES!!

Whats nice is the dewpoints are gonna be low!

https://www.wtnh.com/weather/ct-8-day-forecast/

[Cambium]

Anyone remember this day last year???

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Anyone remember this day last year???

Not personally but when I checked the weather pages this morning 2023 had a record high yesterday of 90°.

[RoundTableKnight]

Please.....please. Someone make this stop. I understand it's April so rain is normal. But it's felt like April for months on end now. I can't anymore. I just can't.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by RoundTableKnight

Please.....please. Someone make this stop. I understand it's April so rain is normal. But it's felt like April for months on end now. I can't anymore. I just can't.

Summer in April does not (with the exceptions of 2002 And a handful of others) bode well for the summer months. Examples are 1967, 1969, 1976 (with massive heat wave that hitting 96° on Easter Sunday),1979, 1990, 2000, and 2009. All were late spring/early summer-like and followed by very disappointing summers. The best summers in general were after dreary April’s. Examples are 1970, 1983, 1988, 1995 and 1999. As he says past Performances not a guarantee of future results. Also, my rather poor memory only goes back to the late 1960s as I was born in 1957.