[Cambium]

LOL.

90s in Florida this week.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Actually we usually only on average have about 2/3 of our total snow done at this point. I wouldn't quite say (normally) that it is over yet.

That said, I do think we're not going to get much more snow the rest of this winter. And once we get past the first week of March, if we do, it will either melt right away or will not stick to the roads anyway.

I don’t know what the average date is for our 2/3 point...but I’m sure your right.

My point was really more about long term averages. We are down to about the last 3 – 4 weeks that there is a decent climatological chance that we could get a big snowstorm. Not saying we could not get a big snowstorm after mid Feb – but the long term odds are starting to really get long.

If you look at the daily almanac for stations like Central Park, Bridgeport...etc...you’ll notice that right around February 18th (this coming Saturday)...the records for a double digit snowfall drop like a rock: In fact, after this Saturday – there are only three dates in the last 64 years had that a double digit snowfall at NWS Bridgeport: 1) Feb 28th 1949 (12 inches)...March 13th 1993 (10 inches)...and March 22nd 1967 (11 inches). Look at it another way: In the last 64 years...only three times did all the ingredients come together at NWS Bridgeport for a fall of snow greater than 9.9 inches...those are pretty good odds than by mid Feb, heavy snow is running on empty in the Tri-State area.

Of course, anything can happen as we saw this past October.

[GraniteStater]

I don't understand the models this week. The 540 thickness line is well south of NH on Thurs/Fri timeframe, but precip is a mixture. Perhaps the air aloft is warmer than the map I am looking at.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

I don't understand the models this week. The 540 thickness line is well south of NH on Thurs/Fri timeframe, but precip is a mixture. Perhaps the air aloft is warmer than the map I am looking at.

Models should start to agree all together tomorrow but depends which run your looking at today. I think the track of the main low being to the west will drive the wind direction at lower levels from the south which will help drive warm air underneath the thickness your seeing so the snow falling in sky will melt by time it gets to ground. Also known as LL WAA (Warm Air Avection) THE SIMPLIFIED OMEGA EQUATION (THERMAL ADVECTION TERM)

Here's the text discussion from NWS Boston which serves southern NH. New models starting to suggest snow at higher elevations.

National Weather Service Text Product Display

"PARENTLOW TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...SOUTH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS HERE. HOWEVER HOURLY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE."

[Arm&Hammer]

Originally Posted by Mixum

lol if u were to leave this thread would be dead.... and we will be falling asleep with some of the other posters! haha im sure it will be a cool and rainy spring/summer. good payback.

Hmmm....I think summer might be like 2011 or 2010, except the hurricane LOL 2011 sure was very rainy. So who knows what might happened.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Arm&Hammer

Hmmm....I think summer might be like 2011 or 2010, except the hurricane LOL 2011 sure was very rainy. So who knows what might happened.

Keep in mind - that despite a rainy year, summer 2011 was HOT in the Tri-State area. June, July, August, and Sept were above normal last summer at most of our area NWS stations like Bridgeport. Last summer NWS Bridgeport had something like 80 days between 80 and 103 F.

[Cambium]

Who am I kidding, I cant stay away, theres always something to talk about.

SUMMER 2011 was above normal. Here's the month by month temperature departure.

In Connecticut June was average. July was slightly above. August was average. September was really hot.

[Cambium]

**SUNDAY STORM UPDATE** IT'S BACK.

Dear lord why. It's just one sporatic run but this is the model that wasmt showing it so I feel the need to mention it. A MECS (major east coast storm) This drops 8-14" of snow on us.

[Arm&Hammer]

^ yeah I hope it wont drop 8-14 LOL

[Cambium]

None of the other models have it and the updated GFS is south more...Like I said, sporatic. Back to hiding.

If it shows up again, I'll mention it.