Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Statistically speaking, 3000 people is a very good sample size. And, the people tested were all out & about. So with that percentage of people having antibodies, it means the infection is much more widespread than originally thought -- but that is actually good news, because it drives down the mortality rate. It also adds credibility to the belief that 80% of those infected have minor symptoms (or none at all).
It's a great study to calculate total cases. In NYC, 21.2% of people had antibodies.
0.212 x 8,398,748 (2018 NYC population) = 1,780,535 cases
17,200 (excess deaths) / 1,780,535 = 1% deaths per case
This is better than the German and South Korean numbers, 3% and 2% respectively.
A 1% death rate would be 3 million deaths out of 320 million US population. That's a crazy number. I wonder if the antibody tests are missing people, due to false negatives.
A 1% death rate would be 3 million deaths out of 320 million US population. That's a crazy number. I wonder if the antibody tests are missing people, due to false negatives.
That's assuming all 320 million people in the US get infected, as you get to 60-70% infected, the herd immunity will start to kick in and less and less people should get it.
My girlfriend likely had Covid. No test that I am aware of but many symptoms and her doctor did a CT scan of her lungs which showed that they were inflamed but no pneumonia. It has now been 30 days since she started having symptoms and she seems to be fully recovered.
At what point is it safe to say that she is not contagious? My googling suggests that it should be fine now, but there are some articles talking about six weeks after symptoms go away. I have had no physical contact with her since this started and I don't want to put myself at risk.
...
At what point is it safe to say that she is not contagious? My googling suggests that it should be fine now, but there are some articles talking about six weeks after symptoms go away. I have had no physical contact with her since this started and I don't want to put myself at risk.
Are you sure you don't have it? Asymptomatic transmission and all. Take care.
It's a great study to calculate total cases. In NYC, 21.2% of people had antibodies.
0.212 x 8,398,748 (2018 NYC population) = 1,780,535 cases
17,200 (excess deaths) / 1,780,535 = 1% deaths per case
This is better than the German and South Korean numbers, 3% and 2% respectively.
A 1% death rate would be 3 million deaths out of 320 million US population. That's a crazy number. I wonder if the antibody tests are missing people, due to false negatives.
False negatives are more of an issue in tests for the virus itself, not in antibody tests, correct ?
that's assuming all 320 million people in the us get infected, as you get to 60-70% infected, the herd immunity will start to kick in and less and less people should get it.
It's a great study to calculate total cases. In NYC, 21.2% of people had antibodies.
0.212 x 8,398,748 (2018 NYC population) = 1,780,535 cases
17,200 (excess deaths) / 1,780,535 = 1% deaths per case
This is better than the German and South Korean numbers, 3% and 2% respectively.
A 1% death rate would be 3 million deaths out of 320 million US population. That's a crazy number. I wonder if the antibody tests are missing people, due to false negatives.
Keep in mind that most of the deaths are in older folks, so it would be better to look at the population at risk. In NYC about 75% are over 18. Few of the deaths are in the under 18 age group. Also, the people with antibodies are by definition all survivors. You have to add the dead and those infected and not yet recovered or dead to your 21.2%.
I do not think you can extrapolate the NYC numbers to the entire country. The rest of it has areas with far less risk of exposure than New York. It will take nationwide antibody testing to get the overall picture.
Any test will have false negatives and false positives.
That's assuming all 320 million people in the US get infected, as you get to 60-70% infected, the herd immunity will start to kick in and less and less people should get it.
The 1918 influenza had an attack rate of about 30% for the pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious, but I do not think we will achieve herd immunity with just natural infection, though the number of cases will diminish. New folks will always keep aging into the high risk category.
My girlfriend likely had Covid. No test that I am aware of but many symptoms and her doctor did a CT scan of her lungs which showed that they were inflamed but no pneumonia. It has now been 30 days since she started having symptoms and she seems to be fully recovered.
At what point is it safe to say that she is not contagious? My googling suggests that it should be fine now, but there are some articles talking about six weeks after symptoms go away. I have had no physical contact with her since this started and I don't want to put myself at risk.
Never. I was sick early Dec. with pneumonia. Xrays did not show it to be like Covid, just pneumonia. Covid has a very distinctive xray. I do not know that all Covid shows that way, and until I do I do not assume I had it.
__________________ ____________________________________________
My posts as a Mod will always be in red.
Be sure to review Terms of Service: TOS
And check this out: FAQ
Moderator: Relationships Forum / Hawaii Forum / Dogs / Pets / Current Events
The 1918 influenza had an attack rate of about 30% for the pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious, but I do not think we will achieve herd immunity with just natural infection, though the number of cases will diminish. New folks will always keep aging into the high risk category.
The Spanish flu had a death rate of 0.5% so this looks to be significantly more deadly if we assume about 25 000 deaths in the state of New York from those 13.9% infected. That'a assuming that about 4500 more people die over the next 15 days for a total statewide death toll of about 25 000 and they got infected during or prior to the statewide antibody testing.
I think we can also assume that the people in NY are a bit more healthy than the rest of the country, so the death rate might be higher in the rest of the country than NY. On the other hand, NY is slightly older so maybe it evens out.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
How long to get over Covid?
