Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Mart, Prosper: pharmacies, Walmart)

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

LET'S STOP URGING PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS OR WHO HAS NOT BEEN DIAGNOSED POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS TO WEAR MASKS.

You mean like the CDC just did? Just to be clear, your advice here is in direct contrast with the current government suggestions, but in your next point you say "Let's trust our local leaders and national task force to give us the right guidance."

Their guidance is to wear a mask. If you want to say people shouldn't go out and buy masks, fine. But that's not the same thing as "Let's stop urging people to wear masks."

As for the models and projections, I think a lot of people like to have some idea of where we're headed. I know I do. And I disagree with the idea that there are no useful models. That's simply not true. The task force has discussed one such model.

[CDContribuitor]

Agree with you. I should say - Do not go out and buy masks. Build your own or cover your mouth/nose with a scarf or a bandana. Thanks for correcting.

We will see how close we are on the number of positive cases and deaths from any of those projections. All the projections based on the models being promoted seem to assume that we are not taking any 'social distancing' measures.

I have a question for you - Do you believe the 3000 deaths number that has been reported for China?

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

You mean like the CDC just did? Just to be clear, your advice here is in direct contrast with the current government suggestions, but in your next point you say "Let's trust our local leaders and national task force to give us the right guidance."

Their guidance is to wear a mask. If you want to say people shouldn't go out and buy masks, fine. But that's not the same thing as "Let's stop urging people to wear masks."

As for the models and projections, I think a lot of people like to have some idea of where we're headed. I know I do. And I disagree with the idea that there are no useful models. That's simply not true. The task force has discussed one such model.

[Jimmy1953]

We in Irving are shocked. Everything is shut down. Dallas County said shut down and we are Dallas county.We shut down. There is nothing left except a few grocery stores and the pharmacy. My town is gone.

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by Jimmy1953

We in Irving are shocked. Everything is shut down. Dallas County said shut down and we are Dallas county.We shut down. There is nothing left except a few grocery stores and the pharmacy. My town is gone.

What are you shocked about? The fact that Irving has the third highest amount of COVID-19 cases in Dallas County? Or the fact that businesses in Irving are complying with the state and city orders?

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

I have a question for you - Do you believe the 3000 deaths number that has been reported for China?

Question wasn't directed at me but I'll answer... No.


They built 16 temporary hospitals in Wuhan, with average number of beds perhaps being 1,500 based on the article below. That's 24,000 additional beds for patients in addition to however many Wuhan already had (a city of 11 million.) They said they had 80,xxx cases across all of China... but in the rest of the world, we've seen that asymptomatic numbers are estimated to be nearly 50%. Those people don't need hospital beds, so for Wuhan alone to have needed to add 24k beds to their existing capacity to meet the patient demand... that tells me that the number of deaths is much higher than actually reported, just going by the death rate observed in the rest of the world and averaging.


https://archpaper.com/2020/03/wuhan-...sk-dissipates/

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

We will see how close we are on the number of positive cases and deaths from any of those projections. All the projections based on the models being promoted seem to assume that we are not taking any 'social distancing' measures.

I have a question for you - Do you believe the 3000 deaths number that has been reported for China?

A couple thoughts:
1. I think the models touted by the task force (100k-250k deaths) were based on social distancing happening. Without social distancing, I think the models are more like 1-2.5 million deaths. I think there was hope that the numbers we have hadn't yet reflected social distancing....until a few days ago. I think enough of the country has been under shut down orders for long enough that our new daily cases should have been affected by it already. So, whatever numbers we see each day is reflective of the reality with social distancing in place. Keep in mind, Italy also practiced social distancing at least as well as we have, and likely better.

2. I don't know what to think about China's numbers. I really have no idea. But I do know that their approach was far, far more drastic than anything we would do. We aren't locking neighborhoods and putting razor wire around them or welding apartment buildings shut. We don't have 99.9% of our residents walking around in surgical masks. People who are hopeful about our situation based on anything in China are probably going to be disappointed.

What I do think is useful from Asia is the approach South Korea took. They tested a lot and early, and I'm hopeful that we can implement a similar approach once we start to open things back up. But the key is that we have to get to a small enough number of infections to realistically be able to test and quarantine a high percentage of all infected people. Their measures were probably more than we are willing to do as well, though. They pretty much threw privacy considerations away in their approach to tracking contacts of infected people.

[CDContribuitor]

Dr. Birx emphasized Saturday that the next two weeks will be crucial for the effort to flatten the curve of coronavirus cases.

"This is a very important --*the next two weeks are*extraordinarily important, and*that's why I think you've heard*from Dr. (Anthony) Fauci, from myself,*from the*President and the*Vice*President that this is the*moment to do everything that you*can on the presidential*guidelines," Birx said.*"This is the moment to not be*going to the grocery store, not*going to the pharmacy, but doing*everything you can to keep your*family and your friends safe,*and that means everybody doing*the 6 feet distancing, washing*your hands."*

Birx mxade her comments at the daily coronavirus task briefing at the White House.

[calgirlinnc]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

Dr. Birx emphasized Saturday that the next two weeks will be crucial for the effort to flatten the curve of coronavirus cases.

"This is a very important --*the next two weeks are*extraordinarily important, and*that's why I think you've heard*from Dr. (Anthony) Fauci, from myself,*from the*President and the*Vice*President that this is the*moment to do everything that you*can on the presidential*guidelines," Birx said.*"This is the moment to not be*going to the grocery store, not*going to the pharmacy, but doing*everything you can to keep your*family and your friends safe,*and that means everybody doing*the 6 feet distancing, washing*your hands."*

Birx mxade her comments at the daily coronavirus task briefing at the White House.

Sometimes doing everything you can to keep your loved ones safe involves going to the pharmacy for their medication!

[CDContribuitor]

Agree. That is an essential need.. She meant - If you do not need to and if it can wait for 2 weeks, you should wait it out.

In a way, I feel relieved that the task force is possibly seeing the peak reaching in this 2 weeks' time.

Originally Posted by calgirlinnc

Sometimes doing everything you can to keep your loved ones safe involves going to the pharmacy for their medication!

[serger]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

Corrected the number to 40000 deaths number in the original post. Agree on the South Korean numbers reported and measures they took. Also, I believe all the information that South Korean govt provided. South Korean measures were not the same as the Chinese govt measures and it worked for them. South Koreans relied heavily on mass testing, quarantining positive cases and tracing sources for almost all positive cases to identify others affected.

I know very well what Korea did. They were smart, we were not. And we actually had more time to get our act together, instead of " intelligence' reports now. Germany also did things very well, but for obvious reasons they couldn't do as well as Korea.