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This is the "demographic" controls the vote theory. Much like the "going to college turns you into a democrat" theory.
North Carolina proves this theory wrong however. In 2012 the state replaced the DEM governor with one from the GOP, and the state flipped to Romney.
No, the difference between the composition of Presidential electorates and off-year electorates is clear, and predictable, as the data that I provided shows.
Demographics are important in political modeling because groups as a whole vote in predictable ways even if individual members within that group change. The groups as a whole don't change their political identity that often at all. It's the study of that group behavior that makes accurate political modeling possible.
Unless both parties are able to adapt to attract a following that's representative of the nation as a whole, they're on the path of decline.
I hope that people will see that Mr. Trump is of and for the people and not of the GOPe.
Trump is of the people -- just matters which people. I know that Trump is marketing himself as the man for the afflicted working man but his policies don't show anything that will help those people except that he blames immigrants for their plight.
Any thinking person should be chilled thinking of Donald Trump as commander in chief.
If elected, he would be the most unqualified president in American history lacking either government or military experience, public office or the armed forces -- something every one of the previous presidents had on their resume.
During the course of this campaign he has repeatedly revealed his ignorance on basic matters of national interest -- the three ways the United States is capable of firing nuclear weapons (land-based missiles, submarines and manned bombers), the difference between the Quds Force in Iran and the Kurds to their west, North Korea’s nuclear tests, the causes of autism, the effects of his tax plan on the deficit and much besides. That, coupled with his lack of desire to acquaint himself with most issues, let alone master them should be a disqualifier. He has admitted that he doesn't prepare for debates or study briefing books; he believes such things get in the way of a good performance. No major presidential candidate has ever been quite as disdainful of knowledge, or as indifferent to facts.
But you see, Trump is the man of the people for those people who are equally untroubled with ignorance; lack of curiosity and confuse bluster with leadership.
Trump is of the people -- just matters which people. I know that Trump is marketing himself as the man for the afflicted working man but his policies don't show anything that will help those people except that he blames immigrants for their plight.
Any thinking person should be chilled thinking of Donald Trump as commander in chief.
If elected, he would be the most unqualified president in American history lacking either government or military experience, public office or the armed forces -- something every one of the previous presidents had on their resume.
During the course of this campaign he has repeatedly revealed his ignorance on basic matters of national interest -- the three ways the United States is capable of firing nuclear weapons (land-based missiles, submarines and manned bombers), the difference between the Quds Force in Iran and the Kurds to their west, North Korea’s nuclear tests, the causes of autism, the effects of his tax plan on the deficit and much besides. That, coupled with his lack of desire to acquaint himself with most issues, let alone master them should be a disqualifier. He has admitted that he doesn't prepare for debates or study briefing books; he believes such things get in the way of a good performance. No major presidential candidate has ever been quite as disdainful of knowledge, or as indifferent to facts.
But you see, Trump is the man of the people for those people who are equally untroubled with ignorance; lack of curiosity and confuse bluster with leadership.
We as a country have elected career politicians as POTUS - how has that worked out over the last decade at least? Maybe to you it's worked out great but the vast majority thinks otherwise. Remember that there's NO perfect.
Obama won North Carolina in 2008 49.70% to McCain's 49.38%. In other words, Obama won by a hair in 2008. In 2012, Romney got 92,000 more votes than Obama, which was hardly a blowout. North Carolina has moved from a solid Red State to more of a swing state in presidential elections.
Haha. Nice Try, But no Cigar. Democrats have controlled the NC General Assembly for over 100 years.
Earlier that year, Democrats voted decisively for Obama over Hillary Clinton in the primary.
Democrats held their 2012 Convention in Charlotte. Obama said that states like NC are the future of the Democrat party. i.e. NC is now the 9th largest state in the USA and by 2030 will be in the top 6.
IMO, NC will decisively vote for Trump in 2016 should the race be Trump vs Clinton.
We as a country have elected career politicians as POTUS - how has that worked out over the last decade at least? Maybe to you it's worked out great but the vast majority thinks otherwise. Remember that there's NO perfect.
The last decade is 2006. We have had to U.S. Presidents.
The first, Bush, came into office and said that he was going to lower taxes to 'give the surplus back.' However, for most of his term the surplus was turned into deficits. Those tax-cuts also fell mainly on the wealthy.
This president got elected and did pretty much what he said he would do.
The second, Obama, was elected and made it pretty clear during his campaign that he wanted to reform health care and restore the economy. He did reform health care and his stimulus, auto bailouts and other programs reversed the slump and the overall economy is pretty good.
Where Obama failed was in addressing income inequality and the minimum wage. Both of those areas were blocked by the GOP Congress.
So, what you plan is to punish who, exactly, by electing inexperienced leaders?
The second, Obama, was elected and made it pretty clear during his campaign that he wanted to reform health care and restore the economy. He did reform health care and his stimulus, auto bailouts and other programs reversed the slump and the overall economy is pretty good.
Nope. You see this with partisan colored glasses.
Bush and Obama were equally horrible presidents. There has been no economic recovery, and the bailed out automobile companies are building plants in Mexico and want to import cars from China. Both Presidents have continued the War Without End bombings of the Middle East.
Health care wasn't reformed. Instead Americans were forced by the government to do business with Insurance companies who force them into plans they can't use pr afford. Remember the lie "If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor".
Bush and Obama were equally horrible presidents. There has been no economic recovery, and the bailed out automobile companies are building plants in Mexico and want to import cars from China. Both Presidents have continued the War Without End bombings of the Middle East.
Health care wasn't reformed. Instead Americans were forced by the government to do business with Insurance companies who force them into plans they can't use pr afford. Remember the lie "If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor".
There has been no recovery? How can anyone deny 9 million more jobs since January 2009? How can anyone deny GDP growth? Regarding insurance companies "forcing" people into plans they can't afford, there are a range of premiums, as always, and premium prices have been kept down.
What you are showing is that these days many Americans live in an alternative political reality, in which the simplest factual assertions are met with anger and derision.
There has been no recovery? How can anyone deny 9 million more jobs since January 2009?
9 million part time jobs to replace 10 million middle class jobs sent over seas since Obama took office? Try again.
In regards to insurance I assume you must not be paying for it. The middle class who is, is getting murdered by it. This is the reason the middle class has abandoned the democrats.
If the proportions of voters in 2016 mirror those in 2012 where 70 percent of voters were self-described moderates and independents, then GOP candidates aiming to appeal to the party's ideological base may diminish the chances of success in the general election.
According to a December survey by YouGov, 58 percent of moderates and 51 percent of Independents "would never vote for" Donald Trump and the numbers were only slightly better for Ted Cruz (47% and 41%).
The same polling showed Marco Rubio to be the best positioned among Independents -- with 37 percent saying they would consider him and 32 percent ruling him out -- while nearly 50 percent said they would never vote for Jeb Bush or Chris Christie.
In a large presidential field the percentage of those who said they would not vote for a particular candidate may provide the most accurate forecast for 2016.
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