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I live in Northern Virginia. Many people here actually are more fiscally conservative than you would think especially when it comes to local government but extremely socially liberal. As long as the Republicans keep opposing gay marriage and abortion rights, the region and the state along with it will keep getting bluer.
Cruz is now promising to pass a bill that life begins at conception. Yep. That's his plan when he wins election and it's why I will never vote for a Republican because I hate their stance on all social issues.
You folks keep discussing this race like it was still 2008. It's not. The democrats have lost support of the white middle class, and without that, they can't win national elections. The fact that they have lost control of every branch of state and national goverment over the last 4 years speaks to this.
It won't be any different in 2016. Basically Hillary can only count on some portion of the African American vote and hard core democrats who vote democrat no matter who they nominate. This isn't a winning coalition. It's the recipe for a landslide loss.
I am anti Hillary, but I believe she'll get the needed electoral votes to win. Most of the larger states will vote Democrat due to their large minority populations wanting gov't handouts. The only large state that probably won't vote for her is Texas. All those little states that Republicans win don't add up to much.
Considering why minorities are called minorities one would surmise that there are a lot of non-minorities looking for "free stuff" as well.
Cruz is now promising to pass a bill that life begins at conception. Yep. That's his plan when he wins election and it's why I will never vote for a Republican because I hate their stance on all social issues.
Guess What. Cruz isn't going to be nominated because of his views. It's a moot point.
You folks keep discussing this race like it was still 2008. It's not. The democrats have lost support of the white middle class, and without that, they can't win national elections. The fact that they have lost control of every branch of state and national goverment over the last 4 years speaks to this.
It won't be any different in 2016. Basically Hillary can only count on some portion of the African American vote and hard core democrats who vote democrat no matter who they nominate. This isn't a winning coalition. It's the recipe for a landslide loss.
In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the non-Hispanic white votes 59% to 39%. The white vote amounted to 72% of total votes cast. Non-college N/H whites accounted for 36% of the total vote and gave 62% of their votes to Mitt Romney. College grad N/H whites accounted for 36% of the votes cast and gave 56% of their votes to Romney. Despite his landslide support among N/H white voters, Romney lost the national popular vote by 3.86% and nearly 5 million votes. He would have needed 62.54% of the N/H white vote to win the popular vote in 2012. With the falling number of N/H non-college voters as a part of total registrations since 2012, if you leave the turnout percentages for college whites, non-college whites and minorities to the 2012 levels, but only adjust the weight of the voter share to reflect 2016 estimates, Obama's margin would have increased from 3.86% to 5.4% nationally simply due to demographic change.
The non-college N\H white voters share of total votes cast has been dropping on average by 3% with each 4 year Presidential cycle; the white college graduate is growing by 1% per cycle and total minority (Hispanic, black, Asian) increasing by 2% per cycle.
Estimates for the 2016 electorate are for it to be 37% white N/H college grad, 33% white N\H non-college and 30% total minority. Some, such as Republican pollster Whit Ayers, expect the total N/H white vote to fall to 69%.
If the total N/H white vote falls to 70% of total votes cast, and the Republican share of total votes doesn't increase, the GOP candidate would need 64% of the N/H white vote to win the national popular vote.
Those estimates don't come from Democratic demographers. They come from Republicans Myra Adams, Karl Rove and Whit Ayers.
It's the demographic math that makes a Rpublican landslide highly improbable. If the minority vote doesn't substantially change, the GOP needs to approach the mid-60s of the total non-Hispanic white vote. As the N/H white share increases the percentage needed for a victory virtually solely fueled by N\H white voters gets higher and higher and more improbable with the passage of time.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 02-23-2016 at 01:51 PM..
In 2012, Mitt Romney carried the non-Hispanic white votes 59% to 39%. The white vote amounted to 72% of total votes cast. Non-college N/H whites accounted for 36% of the total vote and gave 62% of their votes to Mitt Romney. College grad N/H whites accounted for 36% of the votes cast and gave 56% of their votes to Romney. Despite his landslide support among N/H white voters, Romney lost the national popular vote by 3.86% and nearly 5 million votes. He would have needed 62.54% of the N/H white vote to win the popular vote in 2012.
The non-college N\H white voters share of total votes cast has been dropping on average by 3% with each 4 year Presidential cycle; the white college graduate is growing by 1% per cycle and total minority (Hispanic, black, Asian) increasing by 2% per cycle.
Estimates for the 2016 electorate are for it to be 37% white N/H college grad, 33% white N\H non-college and 30% total minority. Some, such as Republican pollster Whit Ayers, expect the total N/H white vote to fall to 69%.
If the total N/H white vote falls to 70% of total votes cast, and the Republican share of total votes doesn't increase, the GOP candidate would need 64% of the N/H white vote to win the national popular vote.
Those estimates don't come from Democratic demographers. They come from Republicans Myra Adams, Karl Rove and Whit Ayers.
It's the demographic math that makes a Rpublican landslide highly improbable. If the minority vote doesn't substantially change, the GOP needs to approach the mid-60s of the total non-Hispanic white vote. As the N/H white share increases the percentage needed for a victory virtually fueled by N\H white voters gets higher and higher and more improbable.
Those darned facts. They always ruin a republican's w** dreams.
This is why you fundamentally fail at all these analyses. You still think this is a race of traditional Democrats vs Republicans. As I said it isn't. Past elections don't predict future elections. The candidates and mood of the people in the present do.
Romney was a very bad candidate. He ran a horrible campaign including a complete breakdown of his internal command and control system over his offices in the field. This is why he lost.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahzzie
Those darned facts. They always ruin a republican's w** dreams.
Nope. Read above. It's using facts in a fallacious manner to project a desired outcome. Happens all the time. And it also fails all the time.
And I take it that since you didn't actually add anything to the conversation, you don't really have anything to dispute what I said.
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