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If the polling in Oregon is correct she might even be there before then as well. She will at any case be above 2300 delegates on June 7th. Decent margins in KY, OR, PR along with additional super delegates might give her the victory before that date.
Your link re: Nate Silver says that he forecast that Bernie would win Nevada, not that he would win the nomination. As it turns out, he was wrong about that, and Hillary won Nevada. Or rather, he would have been wrong if his forecast wasn't dynamic and it kept changing until the final forecast just before the caucus when he correctly forecast Hillary's win.
and for the record, Nate Silver is not a pollster - that would mean that he designs and conducts polls. He doesn't do that. He has a statistical model that takes all the available polls into consideration and then generates a forecast based on the totality of the information. He's actually been less accurate this year than in 2008 but he's also been running a separate demographic model which seems to be more accurate, and I would guess that in the next cycle, he will be incorporating that into his predictive models.
Your second link is a college student preference poll. It does not seem it will be accurate this year.
Your third link is an opinion piece written by an extremely partisan Bernie supporter who inaccurately predicted that Bernie would win the first 4 contests. He was only 25% correct on that one.
There will not be a contested convention, because Hillary will have more than the requisite number of delegates to be declared the Democratic nominee after the first ballot at the convention.
Sorry let me find another article. I know Nate Silver did predict Bernie Sanders will win. Do you disagree that Bernie Sanders is more appealing to voters as a person than either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?
I voted for Bern in March, knowing that he didn't have a chance. But his campaign is having an effect. He's raising issues that resonate with millions of Americans.
Bernie needs 65% of the combined primary votes
AND 155 of the superdelegates who have not marked
for Hillary AND his 40 AND 164 of Hillary's 524 marked Supers
to win.
Oddsmakers and academics estimate Bernie has only a
3-5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Odds on her being indicted by the Feds are at 33%,
which doesn't remove her from contention, if she is
indicted that would still be up to the party to decide
if they want her to be their nominee.
It's up to you California to make Bernie the nomination
We need the 7 million votes!
We can do this!
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Can Bernie Sanders Still Win?
