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Right. Whatever. Point is, people here who actually stayed awake during math class and who understand how the electoral college works were having a serious conversation, pointing out the mathematical difficulties Trump would face if he doesn't win Pennsylvania. Then you pop in with "Nuh-uh, isn't so," and naturally people are going to wonder if you have any logical reason for saying so.
Turns out you don't. No harm, and certainly no surprise.
But the thing is, this is a poll thread, not an opinion thread. We talk about polls here, numbers, mathematical models. The only time you ever want to talk about that is if Trump has a poll that looks reasonably good for him, and any other time all you ever offer is "I don't believe in no polls, I know better." You've got dozens of other threads for that nonsense, and it gets really tiring after a while.
Dozens of threads? Hundreds, really. New batch every day.
I keep checking the polls and 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map and from what I can tell, if Clinton nails down Florida and Pennsylvania, she's home free. Whereas Trump would need to win both Florida and Pennsylvania as well as a bunch of others to get to that elusive 270.
I've notice something that might make a difference. Don't know if it is going on nationwide, or just in our neighborhood. But several people who haven't voted since Reagan, are registering to vote because they are appalled by Trump.
In past elections, I've tried to get them to vote and they've always responded with variations of, "They're all a bunch of crooks." This year, they are filling our registration forms and asking me to remind them when early voting starts. Yikes!
These people aren't getting picked up on polls because they don't respond to such things. And there may be just as many Trump supporters that did not come out for Romney or McCain but are planning to show up for Trump. Hard to tell.
Dozens of threads? Hundreds, really. New batch every day.
I keep checking the polls and 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map and from what I can tell, if Clinton nails down Florida and Pennsylvania, she's home free. Whereas Trump would need to win both Florida and Pennsylvania as well as a bunch of others to get to that elusive 270.
I've notice something that might make a difference. Don't know if it is going on nationwide, or just in our neighborhood. But several people who haven't voted since Reagan, are registering to vote because they are appalled by Trump.
In past elections, I've tried to get them to vote and they've always responded with variations of, "They're all a bunch of crooks." This year, they are filling our registration forms and asking me to remind them when early voting starts. Yikes!
These people aren't getting picked up on polls because they don't respond to such things. And there may be just as many Trump supporters that did not come out for Romney or McCain but are planning to show up for Trump. Hard to tell.
Everything about this election is a wild card.We have never before, in the history of the United States, had two candidates who were more hated by the voters. Right now, according to the polls, 96% of the electorate almost every single voter - thinks that at least one of the two candidates is unqualified to be President. Essentially the entire country believes that at least one of the two major candidates has no business being in the Oval Office.
Think about that for a moment, and reflect upon how that factor will affect the motivation of the electorate. And then ask yourself how pollsters weight that factor into the pol results. I'll answer that for you - they don't. They can't. That single factor may very well be the most important one in this year's election, and there is no way at all to calculate that into the polls. That's a pretty sobering thought, if you ask me.
...Face it. Your guy is in serious trouble. He needs to make up a lot of ground, and he isn't closing the gap at all. The gap remains constant at about 3.2 to 4%. The clock is ticking. He has fewer than 60 days left to close the gap, and every day that he doesn't gain any ground makes it even harder. You need to face reality; the numbers look worse for him every day, even when they don't move at all.
Not necessarily. A week can be a lifetime in politics and with the HC deplorability gaff and health concerns the next round of polling might easily significantly shift towards Trump.
Not necessarily. A week can be a lifetime in politics and with the HC deplorability gaff and health concerns the next round of polling might easily significantly shift towards Trump.
And if it does, things will be different. Until then, it still is what it is.
Correct and my guess is there are a lot of undecided who lean Trump but refuse to say so.
Imo, I don't believe this will be close come election day. This election will likely be decided during the debates and it will be Trumps to lose. He will either reassure voters still on the fence he's up to the job or blow it by saying something which will bury him.
HC best bet is to hope sympathetic moderators toss softballs her way.
Clinton "now leads Trump just 44-42 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson holds steady at 5 percent, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein stayed at 2 percent."
Not necessarily. A week can be a lifetime in politics and with the HC deplorability gaff and health concerns the next round of polling might easily significantly shift towards Trump.
Why would anyone change their vote to Trump because Clinton has an acute illness or spoke what they believe to be the truth about his supporters? People who are in her camp think Trump is a racist monster. They would never vote for him.
Polltracker latest from GA has Trump now ahead +3.2 and still ahead in Arizona by a hair.
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