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The biggest difference between the Belarus situation and the Ukrainian one 6.5 years ago.
The only question now is will the outcome be different as a result of more extreme state violence? There are more than 2 ways this plays out. Ukraine was a peaceful transfer of power compared to what Belarus appears to be heading towards... I find myself agreeing with Scrat.
Poor erasure is still stuck on the belief that people don't care for universal sufferage and national policy is the matter to be decided by unelected leadership.
This is nonsense. There were no free polls in this election. Some unofficial were taken that show he's clearly lost support. The whole of Minsk is honking their horns all day now. Random crowds of people attacked some cops who were dragging a guy away and then they showered them with flowers and the police left. There is no evidence whatsoever that any majority of people support this man.
It were different polls.
I posted one from Deutche Welle.
You can see it in my previous post.
Quote:
You got it backwards, they are not at all happy with this guy. Even less so when they see what contempt he has for the nation's youth. To parade captured teenagers clearly beaten up by cops on TV to scare the rest into submission... Beating people in detention centers... this in inhuman. If Belarusians are the same kind of people as Russians and Ukrainians they aren't going to take this lying down.
Nobody cares right now about unification with Russia. They want to change their country from having a violent a-hole in charge. And that is the similarity I'm starting to see with the Maidan.
I get it, I get it, you want another coup d'etat in Belorussia like in Ukraine, and that's what all this whining is all about.
Yes and no, because that question of "integration" ( the kind that Kremlin is pushing for) and the current one is PART of the results of that vote.
And from everything I saw on-line ( Belorussians expressing their opinions,) and the numbers that I see in the polls, makes me believe that even if Lukashenko falsified the election results, the MAJORITY of people were still voting for HIM.
You're wrong. Here's an example of how he got 80%.
to make sure type in Google (on russian): * photos of the election protocols in Belarus*
If they adore him so much, why did his plane go to Turkey and who did onboard? Family?
Today I spoke on whatsapp with a friend from Belarus. That's what he said:
Quote:
The lawlessness is complete. Everyone voted for Tihanovskaya, whom do not ask, and he has 80%. I was in Minsk for two days so there is generally fear. The whole country is in revolt. They even shoot at the windows, if you say against.... They catch everyone who catches their eye...On Tuesday, even the doors in the entrances were they broken down and they catch to people.. In Minsk, almost 3,000 were taken...Doesn't he want to leave in any way. Today they catched , they will be in court tomorrow morning. Issue to they a fine of up 100$ to 200$ and you is free. And welcome come in the evening again. And the TV shows that criminals and the unemployed are rioting...
Here is the thing DKM - it has nothing to do with *Democracy.*
What you are trying to pass for "democracy" is actually a colonization.
That's where me and you disagree DKM. You refuse to acknowledge that something was not done correctly.
Let me untangle this very tricky knot for you, and hopefully it will indicate the future flow of events.
See, in order to have a *Democracy* for real, those former CIS countries need to have WORKING multi-party system, which they were deprived of with the very help of the West, that is screaming today about the " absence of Democracy" over there.
And the reason they were deprived of that ( Russia first of all,) is because it's much easier for the West ( US first of all) to get access to the coveted natural resources through a group of thugs that are sufficiently bribed by the West, and have all the political power concentrated in their hands.
At this point, when things are working out for the West/US beautifully, they are not interested in any "democracy" in that part of the world whatsoever, because this simply doesn't serve the purpose.
But when that part of the world ends up in the hands of "dictators" that DON'T serve Western/US interests unquestionably and obediently, that's when we start hearing the howling about the "absence of Democracy" in those places.
And "establishment of Democracy" means just that - ask the West for help, and it will help to get rid of the hated dictator, and supposedly will establish a coveted "democracy" in the region in question.
In reality, looking at Ukraine, we already know that the country simply get colonized and it will be run with the help of the newly-appointed government and loans.
So.. see the dilemma?
The population of those countries have two choices; either its own dictator, or colonization.
But no *Democracy* in sight.
This is exactly how it works. How many times have we heard the phrase "He's a dictator, but he's our dictator".
Did you pay attention that Lukashenko actually WANTS to join EURASIAN UNION, not just "Kremlin Inc"?
So what is wrong with this idea?
It's a good idea if it's a mutually beneficial collaboration. Belorussians have good food (their sweet condensed milk is the best in the world), but... All populations of Belarus is half of the population of the Moscow region (perhaps even less). They don't have a sea and their soil is not as good as in Ukraine.
Zimogor, that's NOT "how did Belarussians really vote in the presidential elections" - that's how people voted in this SPECIFIC PRECINCT.
See, the way it works in authoritarian states - you can't REALLY know how many people vote for whom - you can only estimate/guess.
And judging by that poll in Deutche Welle - this was my guess that the MAJORITY of Belorussians were still for Lukashenko ( since over 70% of them still wanted to have an open border with Russia.)
And 70% of course is already not 80% that Lukashenko (supposedly) got during this election.
Of course the numbers were rigged in the same manner they are rigged in Russia, during Putin's elections ( or any election where the "United Russia" is concerned.)
But with all my negative attitude towards Putin and understanding of how the system is rigged, I still make AN ESTIMATE that the majority of people in Russia are still for Putin.
Same story with Lukashenko ( in my opinion of course.)
And of course I saw those reports about "Lukashenko leaving for Turkey" in some plane.
But since the initial reports were coming from NEXTA ( that channel from Poland,) I am never in a rush to jump on unverified information.
Miracles happen. We agree on more than we may know.
I still am not convinced Lukashenko will be out or that Belarus can avoid total chaos if he is ousted. I hope they don't fall to chaos and conflict.
Further afield I think you will agree that some type of Union between Poland and others in the region would be a good thing if done correctly.
The problem there though is history. It has to be a relationship of equals, not master and peasant as it was done in the past.
And I personally DO NOT believe that such union is a good idea, since it will intend to promote American interests in the region ( first and utmost,) and its intention will be to twist the arm of Putin's government, which will only escalate the tensions and ( yet again) will bring us closer to WWIII.
( Not to mention that this union has nothing to offer in economic sense of it - it would be purely "political" union.)
But whatever it is, I already know the answer to it all ( how it's going to be resolved) - more American aggression in the region or not, so I can chill for now.
It's a good idea if it's a mutually beneficial collaboration. Belorussians have good food (their sweet condensed milk is the best in the world), but... All populations of Belarus is half of the population of the Moscow region (perhaps even less). They don't have a sea and their soil is not as good as in Ukraine.
Of course it's a good idea ( after all, both Russian tzars and Soviet leaders knew what lands Russia needed for its state security, and that's why I already pointed out that Putin's government based exclusively on greed for profits for the "new Russians" was destructive for Russia in the long run. ( This is the reason why the enemies now can bite the chunks off of it, since they have the INTERNAL help for doing so.)
But not to worry Maxim.
Always remember that Vysotsky's song - "It's not the evening yet."
I used to dislike most of his songs back in my childhood, but with time the wisdom of his lyrics caught up with me.
P.S. When it comes to Belorussia, they will find themselves in the most difficult situation if cut off from Russia, since from what I am learning now, they still have subsidized by government economy - the industrial enterprises first of all - that keep a great number of people employed, and social security net in place, (health care including,) while it's all destroyed by now by ( a-hem) "liberal" economic policies in Ukraine.
And of course that huge Russian market where Belorussian production goes to - like 50% of it?
The loss for them is going to be immense.
And you are right - Ukraine at least has fertile lands that foreign corporations covet, while turning Ukraine into the colony as "agricultural appendix," but Belorussia?
I can see why they covet it from geographical point of view, to block Russia's economic advances in the West ( while pushing it to cooperate with China, which is yet another dangerous for everyone thing.)
But as for Belorussia itself?
I see no economic benefits whatsoever, same thing as for Ukraine and even worse.
However... with all being said - "It's not the evening yet."
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