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Old 06-28-2008, 06:26 AM
 
Location: Connecticut
561 posts, read 1,722,686 times
Reputation: 252

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MyFox Tampa Bay | Is the housing crash over? (http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/myfox/pages/Home/Detail?contentId=6868822&version=2&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=1.1.1 - broken link)

Florida Association of Realtors :: Media Center
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:12 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 23,812,928 times
Reputation: 4901
I hope not, if it has we are all in big trouble! There's a long way to go before housing would be affordable and quality residents would stop leaving. Values need to fall another 50% or more in south Florida.
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:21 AM
 
Location: Miami
6,853 posts, read 19,816,082 times
Reputation: 2907
I hope so....I would love to put the house on the market so I can move to cooler weather.
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Old 06-28-2008, 07:29 AM
 
10,604 posts, read 14,217,570 times
Reputation: 17203
Short answer is :Nope, I don't think so.

Long answer is : Statements like this in the Tampa piece offend me, and just confirm my existing opinion that it's hype to stimulate sales. (not that I blame them)

"But they may have dropped just enough to jog sales, which should drive up prices. So, if you're waiting for the market to hit bottom, agents say you may have just missed it."

Ha. Missed it. I am a relocated cash buyer here (east coast not west, though) Realtor dot com shows over 11,000 properties for "Tampa".

They are not addressing all the pre foreclosures and in the pipeline foreclosures still growing.

They are not addressing the pent up demand of other sellers who haven't even listed because they're waiting as long as possible. If sales are going at near 2003 prices now, that's only going to still inhibit sales listings imo. Especially for people who took all their equity out in the past couple years.

Who's going to sell a house then still make payments on the loan for years and years because they were upside down?

My theory is that high end properties may move but there's a long way to go for all the others. Meanwhile I've been watching about 20 homes as my own personal benchmark and they've been listed since last year. And I'm wondering if this is going to change the mentality of people and they're finally going to stay in houses longer, like "back in the day" when you lived in your house for a long time or forever. But in Florida? Don't know.

Young buyers haven't really been saving money like in the old days because they have believed in the hype of no money down and all the creative loans which no longer exist. NOW they have to come up with 20%? I don't see it.

I'm sure there are sales, people are living their lives, but for me, I'm keeping my cash ready and think I have quite awhile to go before "missing it" lol.

There's also the issue of instability and pent up demand of people like me, Buyers who are afraid to commit because you can't predict what will happen in the neighborhood you decide on just yet. Unless it's specific areas like high end or ocean or Intracoastal front for example on the East Coast.

It says Tampa Bay. I don't know a thing about Tampa maybe Bay is code for a certain area that is doing better.

I hope I'm wrong, a recovery would help everyone and everything. But I suspect that as seniors pass away and their heirs want to sell, they'll be lowering the prices because financial patience has never been a quality we see in people. (there's quite a bit of this on the East coast) Attrition, coupled with the financial mess ....my crystal ball says "wait" especially with rents being so reasonable. I don't think I'm unique in that.
[/SIZE]
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Old 06-28-2008, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Marion, IN
8,191 posts, read 28,128,957 times
Reputation: 7119
My husband & I were laughing so hard when that aired last night! OMG! If you sold 9 houses last year and 15 this year you get a 66% increase. Perhaps there is an isolated pocket in Tampa where sales are picking up, but I am just south of there and houses are still foreclosing 12-15 per day. Houses here are still sitting and sitting and sitting there with price tags that real people can't afford. Like the last poster, we are cash buyers who are refusing to over pay for a depreciating asset. Let someone who is not a Realtor tell me the market is recovering.
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Old 06-28-2008, 08:41 AM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,488 posts, read 17,951,427 times
Reputation: 5397
Quote:
Originally Posted by runswithscissors View Post
Short answer is :Nope, I don't think so.

Long answer is : Statements like this in the Tampa piece offend me, and just confirm my existing opinion that it's hype to stimulate sales. (not that I blame them)

"But they may have dropped just enough to jog sales, which should drive up prices. So, if you're waiting for the market to hit bottom, agents say you may have just missed it."

Ha. Missed it. I am a relocated cash buyer here (east coast not west, though) Realtor dot com shows over 11,000 properties for "Tampa".

They are not addressing all the pre foreclosures and in the pipeline foreclosures still growing.

They are not addressing the pent up demand of other sellers who haven't even listed because they're waiting as long as possible. If sales are going at near 2003 prices now, that's only going to still inhibit sales listings imo. Especially for people who took all their equity out in the past couple years.

Who's going to sell a house then still make payments on the loan for years and years because they were upside down?

My theory is that high end properties may move but there's a long way to go for all the others. Meanwhile I've been watching about 20 homes as my own personal benchmark and they've been listed since last year. And I'm wondering if this is going to change the mentality of people and they're finally going to stay in houses longer, like "back in the day" when you lived in your house for a long time or forever. But in Florida? Don't know.

Young buyers haven't really been saving money like in the old days because they have believed in the hype of no money down and all the creative loans which no longer exist. NOW they have to come up with 20%? I don't see it.

I'm sure there are sales, people are living their lives, but for me, I'm keeping my cash ready and think I have quite awhile to go before "missing it" lol.

There's also the issue of instability and pent up demand of people like me, Buyers who are afraid to commit because you can't predict what will happen in the neighborhood you decide on just yet. Unless it's specific areas like high end or ocean or Intracoastal front for example on the East Coast.

It says Tampa Bay. I don't know a thing about Tampa maybe Bay is code for a certain area that is doing better.

I hope I'm wrong, a recovery would help everyone and everything. But I suspect that as seniors pass away and their heirs want to sell, they'll be lowering the prices because financial patience has never been a quality we see in people. (there's quite a bit of this on the East coast) Attrition, coupled with the financial mess ....my crystal ball says "wait" especially with rents being so reasonable. I don't think I'm unique in that.
[/SIZE]
Couple of points of note.

Of the 11,000 plus properties on realtor.com at least 20% of those are rentals(1310), land(672) or multi-family(257). When running numbers it is usually only SFH that are used.

I keep seeing many people erroneously stating that everyone needs 20% down now and that is just not true. If you have decent credit you can still very easily get a FHA 97% loan. I just closed one last week and we also got the seller to pay the 3% down.

And just FYI since this does confuse a few people. Tampa is considered to be the city and some of the outlying areas. Tampa Bay is considered Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando county. Citrus, Polk, Manatee and Sarasota Counties are also sometimes considered part of the Greater Tampa Bay area.
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Old 06-28-2008, 09:29 AM
 
670 posts, read 1,513,474 times
Reputation: 269
Default Do Think The Housing Recovery Has Started?

_

Yes.
Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy!


Or be priced out forever!

















































_
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Old 06-28-2008, 09:46 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
1,303 posts, read 2,671,129 times
Reputation: 1131
Default It's still a long road!!

Logic would say that the real estate downturn is nowhere near its conclusion. Today's buyers are coming from a very limited national pool. There are the millionaires and multi-millionaires who are looking at the oceanfront mansions, SOH, and the lack of a state income tax as driving one sector of the market. I cannot help but believe that this segment of buyers is not affected too much by the current crunch... the cost of prime real estate will be offset by their reduced taxes.

There are the relocating Northeast retirees who have a pocket full of pension money and are looking for the good life. They have become the most cautious of buyers. They (we) are looking for a bargain but are not too keen about the current state of the Florida economy (taxes, jobs,HOI, HOA, real estate, school issues, perceived crime). They do not want to find themselves forced to " move back home" ( and not being able to sell their houses) if the costs exceed the pensions. Throw in the additional fact that they are moving away from family, who have little hope of affording regular Florida visits (Have you checked costs of airfare recently?), nor little chance to finding meaningful employment.

Can a full-time working Florida resident afford a Florida home? The ownership costs are still too much higher than just the mortgages. The wages earned have to be in greater correlation to what is paid for the home ownership costs. It is a lousy decision for a young family to make... Do I buy a home and become "house poor", or just rent? This is the most important (and largest) segment of the Florida home buyers group that is still being shut from the market. Until significant adjustments in the home ownership costs are made for this potential home buying population, the road to recovery is still a long way from Florida.
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Old 06-28-2008, 09:59 AM
 
132 posts, read 387,394 times
Reputation: 47
INVENTORY... why didn't they report those numbers? How many months of inventory are they sitting on? My RE friends have been trying to tell me that we are bumping bottom for a year now... I will hear this again 6-9 months from now, and it still won't be true... more foreclosures coming from those 3-5 yr ARM's done in 2005...
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Old 06-28-2008, 10:06 AM
 
132 posts, read 387,394 times
Reputation: 47
This was interesting...

Yahoo! (http://www.yahoo.com/s/908318 - broken link)
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