Real Estate Bubble Poll (Deltona, Port Charlotte: mortgage, insurance, broker)

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Muggy

So this is my ultimatum to Shores9 & Scamutz: in no-less-than-concrete terms please forecast the Florida housing market for the next 3-5 years. Your answer will serve as a benchmark for today and tomorrow. Since we all live in the Tampa Bay Area pick any neighborhood in Pinellas or Hillsborough County.

I predict that a 1200 Sq. Ft. 3/2 Single Family Home in Largo (priced around median) will loose at least 30-40% of its current market value in the next 3 years.

I predict that a 2,000 Sq. Ft. 2/2 Condo (especially new construction) in St. Pete Beach (priced around median) will lose at least 40-50% of its current market value in the next 5 years.

Muggy - Let’s talk about Largo for a moment

There were roughly 1,320 residential sales of all types this year to date
300 condos
86 Town homes
70 other (mobile, manufactured etc)
864 Single family

Stats for all sales

Average list = $230,480
Average sold= $222,293
Sold at 96.5% of list (to be fair not original list price but list price at the time of contract)
Average sq ft = 1,385
Average bed rooms = 3
Average baths = 2


There were 67 single family 3 bed 2 bath homes between 1100 and 1300 sq ft that sold in that period.

The stats line up like this

Average list = $200,629
Average sold= $195,560
Sold at 97.5% of list
Average sq ft = 1,208

My prediction is that an average 1200sq ft (1100-1200) 3/2 Will NOT fall in price. Since these numbers fall in the desirable range for size, bed count, and affordability this segment and the overall Largo market should perform well. I don’t however think it will see a great amount of appreciation – at best a total of 6% in 3 years

I don’t know the condo market on St Pete Beach well enough but my position on Condos especially in high transient areas is significantly less favorable than that of single family. If pressed I would almost have to say it would be close to your assessment. I would put it 20-30% lower though our reasoning is probably different.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Muggy - Let’s talk about Largo for a moment

There were roughly 1,320 residential sales of all types this year to date
300 condos
86 Town homes
70 other (mobile, manufactured etc)
864 Single family

Stats for all sales

Average list = $230,480
Average sold= $222,293
Sold at 96.5% of list (to be fair not original list price but list price at the time of contract)
Average sq ft = 1,385
Average bed rooms = 3
Average baths = 2


There were 67 single family 3 bed 2 bath homes between 1100 and 1300 sq ft that sold in that period.

The stats line up like this

Average list = $200,629
Average sold= $195,560
Sold at 97.5% of list
Average sq ft = 1,208

My prediction is that an average 1200sq ft (1100-1200) 3/2 Will NOT fall in price. Since these numbers fall in the desirable range for size, bed count, and affordability this segment and the overall Largo market should perform well. I don’t however think it will see a great amount of appreciation – at best a total of 6% in 3 years

I don’t know the condo market on St Pete Beach well enough but my position on Condos especially in high transient areas is significantly less favorable than that of single family. If pressed I would almost have to say it would be close to your assessment. I would put it 20-30% lower though our reasoning is probably different.

I ran the same data set for the 67 SFR 3/2 1200sq ft above and included the Original Listing price. The average Original Listing Price was $205,326. Comparing the average sold price to the average Original listing price the ratio is 95% [of average original listing] 2.5% less but stll exceptable

[MyHomeIsInOcala]

Here is the FL Association of Realtors Stats on Realtor Sales in the state.

It is broken down in Years as well as by Area... Pretty self-explanatory and easy to follow.
media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm

But, knowing that markets are all locally defined, what a home on one block sells for can be a far cry from an identical home less than a mile away.

[Need_affordable_home]

The market has gone totally crazy, I checked zillow and one house sold for $167k in 1998 and $518k in 2006! More than triple the price in 8 years? Whoever bought it really overpaid! Granted he paid $182/foot but could have waited, prices are going down!

[Nomoresubways]

There are some houses that are probably going to defy the laws of the market and continue to appreciate. Those in high demand areas, with all the upgrades, etc. I'd have to think most people who buy a house in 2006 without much or any discount are going to lose a little equity and not see any serious gains for 2-3 years.

[Nomoresubways]

Oh and Firemed, no I'm not a boomer. I just know a lot of boomers up north are gearing up to move down south, and they really like some of the prices they are seeing. I could be wrong.

[bamboosmom]

Originally Posted by firemed

But what if someone wanted a rhinestone. Would it be worth more then a diamond ?

You see, if they want that rhinestone and are willing to pay the higher price, then that's their choice. I believe you get what you pay for. If a home has all the amenities, the location and then it will sell for that higher price.
Mine did.

[bamboosmom]

Originally Posted by Need_affordable_home

The market has gone totally crazy, I checked zillow and one house sold for $167k in 1998 and $518k in 2006! More than triple the price in 8 years? Whoever bought it really overpaid! Granted he paid $182/foot but could have waited, prices are going down!

Zillow is usually inaccurate.

[Shores9]

So after a 4 year run-up in real estate prices nationwide and in FLA don’t you think it’s incredible that as of the end Sept 06 the median sales price in FLA was $243,900 vs the $235,100 price for 2005.

Let see that’s a 3.6% increase over the hottest year in history.

Oh but previously you said

Originally Posted by MyHomeIsInOcala

David Lereah, pushed in his Power Point Presentation, entitled, "The Road to Recovery", that the ever so evil media was feeding a false craze about a bubble... SOOOOO, what Agents will remember and adhere to when marketing/cheerleading is that There Is NO Bubble and the spinning starts. I am not attacking RE Pros (that is my line of work too), but you must stop and be honest with folks.

And now you say

Originally Posted by MyHomeIsInOcala

But, knowing that markets are all locally defined, what a home on one block sells for can be a far cry from an identical home less than a mile away.

Who’s spinning whom ? Using statistics is one thing -- numbers are impartial/unbiased they are what they are. However your (or anyone’s)assessment/opinion of whatever is quite another story

[Nomoresubways]

I think you have to remember that in Florida at least the slowdown probably didn't start until spring of '06, so you had even higher prices going into summer, at which point they have stagnated a little. I have no doubt that there is a year over year increase, but I'd have to say 95% of that was before May. I could be terribly wrong.