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As you said Cam still 7 days away , think it is within reasonable possibility it skirts OBX then up east coast into ny? Wow that would suck, hard. I just hope it turns out to sea, I bet many people in Haiti don't even know it's coming yet....I see a catastrophe there if the east side of the storm passes through there..
Anything is possible.. but more chances than not "at this point" it misses us. But keep in mind 1 thing... the thing that will kick it out to sea is Over the Pacific right now. Models don't have a good sense of it until that Jet Stream comes on shore in the West which is in a couple days.
When there's an eye you can easily see the exact movement better.. See it's moving NW now after stalling... When it started slowing down 36hrs ago, it was a sign it was ready to make the turn.. No more West move now.
"Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches."
An amazingly wet system, people are going to perish tomorrow in Haiti. The Euro now has this striking North Carolina. These models drive me insane, even with all the technology the margin for error is huge beyond 48 hours.
The Euro now has this striking North Carolina. These models drive me insane, even with all the technology the margin for error is huge beyond 48 hours.
I played the loop.. The Jet stream dipping trough over Alaska right now at this moment, is the one that has to interact with Matthew to affect the Eastern Sea Board. Alaska! Just think about 2 things.
1. Not a lot of data gets fed into the models regarding that trough over the Pacific so they don't have real good outcomes.
2. What if that Jet doesn't dip far enough to catch Matthew? What if that trough is too slow? Too fast? Just imagine the timing that needs to happen.
Here is a current look at the Upper pattern...
1. THAT is what will affect Matthew. Is that going to kick him OTS or catch him and hit land?
2. Big dip in the Jet over Western U.S right now, that will lift out to Canada this week.. What if that's slower to leave, it will slow down #1. Get it?
3. The Upper Low that's bringing us all these clouds and cool temps is finally leaving.. Not a big player IMO.
4. Another HUGE player. What if that Atlantic ridge is too far East, then Matthew will have room to miss us and go Out to sea! If that High is west enough then he can hit land no matter if #1 doesn't catch up to him
5. The Mexico High. Was a player, not anymore. It made Matthew stall and make this turn north..so was a player, not anymore as its moving NW now.
Soooooooooooooooo....... Do you see how model results can vary past 5 days? So many features and players going on out there, it's hard to perfect timing and placement.
#1 wont be coming on shore till mid week, that's when we'll get some better agreement on the models.
Ummmm... 11am Update has it moving West? WHA!?? Unless that's just a natural wobble, that is interesting! Was moving NW before.
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016
...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MEANDERING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 74.6W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES
Sitting so long upwelling may be hurting Matthew some. But very warm waters all around, so as long as it gets moving shouldn't affect it too much longer.
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