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5pm NHC update... She's making the turn moving WNW now. and forward speed went from 6mph to 9mph now. Here she comes. Pressure dropped as well. Strengthening
Quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017
...EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT DAYBREAK...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Suwanee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian
Pass
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana
* Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
* West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwest motion is
expected to begin tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to
move near the north coast of Cuba during the next few hours, and
will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is
expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday
afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International airport
recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust
of 70 mph (113 km/h).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches).
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
They have it a Cat 1 over Georgia now! And a Cat 3 over interior Florida
Well runs really. It is part of the spaghetti mix.
The great majority of runs still showed a turn very soon and run up Central Florida or West Coast.
However, a few runs showed continuing track along Cuba or even crossing Cuba.
These all then predicted landfall in Pan Handle or even farther West.
Why even discuss outlier runs? We all know they are wrong..it just confuses people. This storm is 100 percent coming up the coast. Whether it stays just off , strikes Naples or to Tampa Bay is really a crap shoot as its such a fine line with the way the storm is moving and the contour of the coastline.
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