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That graph shows Irma STILL battling Cuba
And the models are throwing a lot of spaghetti out into,the Gulf
I know that is not given a lot of cred
But is pressure dropping enough to seduce her north?
Hmm, Not sure pressure and movement direction are correlated, but her picking up speed is a sign shes ready to start making the move towards Florida now. First she slowed to 6mph, now she's making the turn and able to strengthen doing so
Although this is true, the surge of water into the Bay from the gulf would just be disastrous. When I lived down there the talk was always how the Bay would not take a major hurricane well. Not sure if that was chatter or true but I do remember it was a concern.
And if Irma does ride the coast up w/out a hit at Ft Myers or Naples and go inland I imagine the surge will push into Tampa Bay and do lot of damage
It was just the question used the word about how much beach Tampa had to absorb the initial surge...and Tampa doesn't really have beach...
Yeah the chaos theory/butterfly effect has also been used to describe a butterfly flapping its wings in say, New Mexico, causing a hurricane/cyclone in China.
Location: Big Island of Hawaii & HOT BuOYS Sailing Vessel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03
Why even discuss outlier runs? We all know they are wrong..it just confuses people. This storm is 100 percent coming up the coast. Whether it stays just off , strikes Naples or to Tampa Bay is really a crap shoot as its such a fine line with the way the storm is moving and the contour of the coastline.
There has to be a reason why some runs are outliers in the first place.
No outliers were making this sort of prediction 24 hours ago. I latch onto them and discuss them since they reinforce my own opinion.
Irma is in a tug of war trapped between competing low pressures. North America and Florida are high pressure areas. Yucatan, South of Cuba, and all of South America has been low.
Jose is not just a tiny influence either. It is South of Irma and generating a great deal of heat feeding the same winds reaching Irma.
I apologize I live without TV and don't have forecasters explaining exactly why Irma makes this sudden turn North.
Pressures are the reason Katia made an exit and traveled South West. Hence we just saw evidence it is entirely possible for pressures to drive a hurricane in the opposite direction Irma is supposed to go.
I do believe it will turn. Many because that is what everyone says.
A WIND GUST OF 70 MPH WAS RECORDED AT THE FT. LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WITH A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH A RAINBAND FROM HURRICANE IRMA.
There has to be a reason why some runs are outliers in the first place.
No outliers were making this sort of prediction 24 hours ago. I latch onto them and discuss them since they reinforce my own opinion.
Irma is in a tug of war trapped between competing low pressures. North America and Florida are high pressure areas. Yucatan, South of Cuba, and all of South America has been low.
Jose is not just a tiny influence either. It is South of Irma and generating a great deal of heat feeding the same winds reaching Irma.
I apologize I live without TV and don't have forecasters explaining exactly why Irma makes this sudden turn North.
Pressures are the reason Katia made an exit and traveled South West. Hence we just saw evidence it is entirely possible for pressures to drive a hurricane in the opposite direction Irma is supposed to go.
I do believe it will turn. Many because that is what everyone says.
Fair enough ... I just will say if this by some miracle did not turn it would put into question everything we rely on about forecasting. Its just not conceivable.
Official power outages as of 5pEST (source: from power company) (some of these will be storm related, others will be every day variety mixed in): Note: crews will go and attempt to restore power until winds reach a certain limit, then you wait. The "area" comment after the county listing is just to give people an idea where each county is since most people know city locations better and does not mean those specific cities are without power, just somewhere in that county).
West Coast:
-Monroe Co (Everglades?): 70
-Collier Co (Everglades City, Naples, Marco Island area): 410
-Lee Co (Ft Myers, Cape Cora, Bonita Springs area): 120
-Charlotte Co (Punta Gorda area): 20
-De Soto Co (Arcadia area): 550
-Sarasota Co (Sarasota, North Port, Venice area): 460
-Manatee Co (Myakka City, Bradenton area): 110
-Suwannee Co (Live Oak, McAlpin area): 10
East Coast:
-Miami-Dade Co (Miami, Kendall, Homestead area): 42,110
-Broward Co. (Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale, Pomparo Beach area): 14,770
-Palm Beach Co. (Boca Raton, West Palm Beach area): 2,470
-Martin Co. (Indiantown area): 150
-St Lucie Co. (Fort Pierce, Port St Lucie area): 20
-Okeechobee Co.: 40
-Indian River Co (Vero Beach, Sebastian area): 100
-Brevard Co (Titusville, Melbourne area): 200
-Seminole Co (NE corner of Orlando, Sanford, Geneva area): 10
-Volusia Co (Daytona Beach, Deltona area): 40
-Flagler Co (Palm Coast area): 50
-St Johns Co (St. Augustine, Crescent Beach area): 10
-Putnam Co (Palatka area): 20
-Nassau Co (just north of Jacksonville, Callahan area): -just restored-
-Baker Co (Macclenny, Sanderson area): 10
Hate to name names because of leaving anybody out, but you all know who you are that have so vastly contributed here.
I've gotten into the habit if checking in here out of preference because some of you have done so much of the research and dissemination for us
Do know your time has not been unappreciated.
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