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Well obiviously its getting close to the Super Bowl and some interesting topics on this were coming up.
Heck a news article a few days ago predicts our economy to take off like a train when the economy fully recovers.
So what do you think the Population of the Indianapolis Metro will be in 2030?
I predict 3M which is a 50% increase from now in 20 years due to the Super Bowl Major Companies like CME group etc looking at us.
Gen Con Indy commiting until atleast 2020.
according to the census bureau the indy msa grew between 10-11% from 2000 to 2010 census..2000 1,604,000 2010 1,760,000 rounded figures..now if indy can continue to grow at that rate it will add around 175,000 every 10 years
according to the census bureau the indy msa grew between 10-11% from 2000 to 2010 census..2000 1,604,000 2010 1,760,000 rounded figures..now if indy can continue to grow at that rate it will add around 175,000 every 10 years
Ya whats interesting in what the census determines the Metro to be.
Some Exclude Anderson Indiana some include.
I personally Include cause i am sure i can find people near Anderson that commute to the Indy area.
Ya whats interesting in what the census determines the Metro to be.
Some Exclude Anderson Indiana some include.
I personally Include cause i am sure i can find people near Anderson that commute to the Indy area.
Currently Anderson is included in the metro but Kokomo isn't which I find ironic considering the traffic back and forth between Howard and Marion/Hamilton counties. Heck, Tipton county which buffers Hamilton and Howard is nothing but three blocks anyway it's so small. It's also funny how Monroe county isn't part of the metro but Brown county is even though everyone in brown county pretty much works in Monroe county and not Marion county.
Ya whats interesting in what the census determines the Metro to be.
Some Exclude Anderson Indiana some include.
I personally Include cause i am sure i can find people near Anderson that commute to the Indy area.
One of the problems with getting to much population is the social programs that come along with the growth.
You start tipping the scales along with the good comes the bad.
In addition to this you would be getting highways and other public sectors like police and fire depts. that would need additional funds to cover growth.
Than you have to raise the tax base which I know by reading your posts for several months you despise.
Your schools also get saddled with needing additional space and the staffing of teachers etc..
On the upside if you have a positive growth you tend to see a higher revenue of state income tax dollars.
I tend to believe counties that are the original cores (marion) will see the growth in the next 20 or 30 years as more and more people become less dependent on their auto due to increased transportation costs.
At minimum it would really benefit Indianapolis with a rail system of some sort.
Even if its light rail. Get the people off the highways and onto a public transportation line.
In the long run it would save wear and tear and gridlock on the highways.
Even though I must say Indianapolis has a superb system with 465 encircling the city.
I would venture more companies will start to flow back to the city a reverse of the last 20 years.
That trend is happening nation wide.
Even stores like Target and Wal Mart are all scrambling to replace their old suburban models to more of a inner city model.
I think these companies see the trend starting to develop.
One of the problems with getting to much population is the social programs that come along with the growth.
You start tipping the scales along with the good comes the bad.
In addition to this you would be getting highways and other public sectors like police and fire depts. that would need additional funds to cover growth.
Your schools also get saddled with needing additional space and the staffing of teachers etc..
On the upside if you have a positive growth you tend to see a higher revenue of state income tax dollars.
I tend to believe counties that are the original cores (marion) will see the growth in the next 20 or 30 years as more and more people become less dependent on their auto due to increased transportation costs.
At minimum it would really benefit Indianapolis with a rail system of some sort. Even if its light rail. Get the people off the highways and onto a public transportation line. In the long run it would save wear and tear and gridlock on the highways.
The worst thing Indy could do is just build a rail system that is currently proposed given your theory about people moving back into Indy. The Fishers/Downtown Indy line is estimated at a billion dollars just for that rail. The only way this thing would be a success is if there was a law pass in conjunction that basically forced all new residents into high rise apartment buildings that are built within five blocks of a station and that all new commercial development is also confined to a similar area.
The rail line will fail because the Indy area is too spread out. It will be a waste of money considering all the other things you pointed out that will need to be funded. I also wonder why we will need rail if we see an influx of people back into the city? I guess if that is the case, a rail system might work so long as longer routes are taken off the table and replaced with much shorter routes that are confined within the city.
As far as the population for 2030, hard to tell. The world seems to be in constant change, but even with all the issues the world has had over the centuries, India and China are still growing, over 1B populations. I always feel that is an indicator that the US population will continue to grow as well. Thing is, not sure what kind of growth we will have. I am one of three. I know a few other families that had 3+ kids back in the 70s and 80s. Seems today the working class are only having as many kids as they can afford. Most people I know have only one or two kids. Not sure if they plan on anymore or not. Only one has actually stated they may add a third. All the while, I see the lower income and working poor not worrying about affording kids and some women have three, four, or five kids by the time they are 30. As stated above, this will really increase social welfare costs in this country. Something will have to change in this country in order to fund all these programs. Should be interesting.
The worst thing Indy could do is just build a rail system that is currently proposed given your theory about people moving back into Indy. The Fishers/Downtown Indy line is estimated at a billion dollars just for that rail. The only way this thing would be a success is if there was a law pass in conjunction that basically forced all new residents into high rise apartment buildings that are built within five blocks of a station and that all new commercial development is also confined to a similar area.
The rail line will fail because the Indy area is too spread out. It will be a waste of money considering all the other things you pointed out that will need to be funded. I also wonder why we will need rail if we see an influx of people back into the city? I guess if that is the case, a rail system might work so long as longer routes are taken off the table and replaced with much shorter routes that are confined within the city.
As far as the population for 2030, hard to tell. The world seems to be in constant change, but even with all the issues the world has had over the centuries, India and China are still growing, over 1B populations. I always feel that is an indicator that the US population will continue to grow as well. Thing is, not sure what kind of growth we will have. I am one of three. I know a few other families that had 3+ kids back in the 70s and 80s. Seems today the working class are only having as many kids as they can afford. Most people I know have only one or two kids. Not sure if they plan on anymore or not. Only one has actually stated they may add a third. All the while, I see the lower income and working poor not worrying about affording kids and some women have three, four, or five kids by the time they are 30. As stated above, this will really increase social welfare costs in this country. Something will have to change in this country in order to fund all these programs. Should be interesting.
Not everyone will live smack down town Indianapolis where the work center will be.
For starters you will still have suburbs. Even exurbs into the far out reaching counties.
I believe all of Marion CO> is Indianapolis but lets say they would live way on the North side or east side that person would need transportation to get downtown.
Or even shuttling guests to the city from the Airport.
People to and from the hospitals.
People to and from sporting events.
People to and from the convention centers.
There are multiple reasons why this theory holds water.
Not everyone will live smack down town Indianapolis where the work center will be.
For starters you will still have suburbs. Even exurbs into the far out reaching counties.
I believe all of Marion CO> is Indianapolis but lets say they would live way on the North side or east side that person would need transportation to get downtown.
Or even shuttling guests to the city from the Airport.
People to and from the hospitals.
People to and from sporting events.
People to and from the convention centers.
There are multiple reasons why this theory holds water.
Common misnomer that all public trans has to all be the same. They're not, borders are different and densities are different (although density is a little bit overrated) but nevertheless, I did a mock comparison a while back with the proposed routes/density per zip code: http://www.city-data.com/forum/india...l#post21738209
Indy is under the impression that everyone has to be within 5 blocks of a station which of course is not possible. In fact, no city on the planet has that as it's just not doable, there will always be people who either park and ride or take another mode of transportation to a line. It doesn't mean they won't use it and a lot of times, people do with fuel costs, downtown parking costs, it's just more feasible for them to do so.
Not everyone will live smack down town Indianapolis where the work center will be.
For starters you will still have suburbs. Even exurbs into the far out reaching counties.
You originally said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunnyandcloudydays
I tend to believe counties that are the original cores (marion) will see the growth in the next 20 or 30 years as more and more people become less dependent on their auto due to increased transportation costs.
I actually believe what you originally said, so long as the Indy core maintains a lot of jobs. I think most growth will be confined to five miles from the Marion County line. I really don't see much growth in the far out reaching counties. These smaller cities and towns are having a hard time since many of the union wage manufacturing places have shut down. If housing costs really match the going wages in these areas (which I would put at $7-$15/hour), then maybe they will see some growth for folks who want that lifestyle. I see 20 mile commutes as becoming the limit for most people, but it all depends upon gas costs, vehicle costs, future MPG engine designs, and housing cost. I don't think everyone will flock to downtown Indy, but I do believe that you will see more people who work in downtown Indy opt for say a McCordsville over a Greenfield, or say Greenwood over Franklin/Whiteland, if nothing really changes. Cutting off 10 miles of driving per day for five days a week will add up over the long haul.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunnyandcloudydays
Or even shuttling guests to the city from the Airport.
People to and from the hospitals.
People to and from sporting events.
People to and from the convention centers.
There are multiple reasons why this theory holds water.
None of those reasons could ever justify spending a billion dollars on a fixed rail train from Fishers to downtown. If we build it, it won't make an additional 100K people magically show up for GenCon. If this Fishers to downtown line is some sort of must build, then the city/state must get very strict on zoning, and somehow get future business and residential growth to locate within miles of where the stations will be located.
I'm all for paying a little more a month if we do this the right way, which for this city is a massive overhaul of our bus system. I really like the flexibility of buses. Some folks think big money and non-flexible transit is the way to go though. I don't think Indy will suffer for not having a rail line. Just because other cities do something doesn't mean we need to do the same thing. On a side note, I think a lot of politicians don't care about municipal debt loads, even if they claim they do. There seems to now be a push by local elected officials all over the country to declare bankruptcy once the bills get too high to pay. I really think by allowing this and courts not leveling some really serious taxation upon the citizens of these municipalities, we are in danger of becoming a very risk country to invest in. We need people and companies to buy bonds to build infrastructure, but if more and more cities are going just sell the bonds, then ten years later refuse to enact massive tax hikes to pay for the bonds (as well as pensions and other things), and just declare them null and void, who is going to be willing to buy future bonds?
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