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I know, I may be making a big mistake. We had most of our retirement in a broad index stock fund, some of it in investment real estate that we control. I'm just really nervous about the stock market right now - seems to me that manufacturing in the US just continues to decline, and Trump's tariff threats worry me, too. Plus I'm nervous about the political situation. Trump certainly could be impeached (although I don't think that there is any way that the Senate would convict), and I think that could be very bad for the stock market. When it comes down to it, the game that my spouse and I know is low end multifamily real estate. A little of the retirement is in that, and pretty much all of our non-retirement money, too. We don't know the stock market, which is why we use a broad index fund. But we've been talking about getting out for a couple of months now - and while we talked, the market rose. We just felt it was time to consolidate the gains and move into the money market until the next downturn, which we feel has to come soon. Sure, we won't be able to sell at the exact peak, and buy at the lowest point of the next trough, but I'm hoping we can time it so that we do okay.
The question now is, other than money market, where to put all that retirement money, that would do well, safely, while we wait to jump back in?
I'm just really nervous about the stock market right now
We don't know the stock market.
The question now is, other than money market, where to put all that retirement money, that would do well, safely, while we wait to jump back in?
The best advice would be to find a financial adviser and stop trying to manage your own portfolio. Investing without knowing what you are doing and investing by feelings are likely to cause some big mistakes.
If your narrative encompasses "multiple administrations", then by what reasoning do we disqualify 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 from being adequate "resets"?
And if things "get REALLY bad", by what reasoning ought we to be "long the dollar"?
"They" - Chapter 3 in Selden's famous, Psychology of the Stock Market.
Nothing has really changed since 2007-2009 fundamentally. The Fed and other world CBs around the world have created trillions in artificial liquidity and have manipulated interest rates. With pretty meager results I might add for all that has been pumped. Take it all away and what do you have?
ZIRP has caused even more bad debt to be placed on the books. So the BIG debt reset has not occurred yet. Trump will be the perfect fall guy over the bubble bust for a variety of reasons. THEY don't get that kind of opportunity often. Watch and see.
And right now the dollar is still the world's reserve currency. So many things tied into the dollar. So when things start turning dire around the world, people are going to look for the best house in the worst neighborhood to run to. And that is the dollar. Longer-term the dollar is done. But it will have a nice run while the world burns in the short-run.
"They" - Chapter 3 in Selden's famous, Psychology of the Stock Market.
I read the chapter. To summarize, "they" is a nebulous catch-all term for aggregate of market constituents. It is neither conspiracy nor autocracy. It's just shorthand for the fact that for every buyer there's a seller, and vice versa. That was in 1912, when the book appeared. Today we might refer by "they" to algorithmic trading, sovereign wealth-funds, pension funds or Goldman-Sachs.... in other words, nothing has changed since 1912.
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Originally Posted by heart84
Nothing has really changed since 2007-2009 fundamentally.
By similar reasoning, already given above, nothing has changed since 1912... or 1812. Which means that an impending crash is just as likely as listless ennui, which is just as likely as a raging bull-market.
don't try to rule out or guess when down turns or dips are happening , they are part of the business cycle and always will be ... if one is so concerned then ,have a plan that allows for them , is optimized for a full cycle and forget the psychic work .
All the previous market downturns, I was too lazy and neglectful to pull my retirement out of stocks, and then I kicked myself afterwards. But we did it today. Moved everything (which had all been in a very broad stock index fund) into money market. This is the longest bull market we've ever seen, and I don't see any justification for it.
Now I have to figure out where to invest the money in anticipation of a downturn, that will allow me to jump back into stocks 'when there's blood in the streets'. Yes, I'm trying to time the market.
Gutsy move. Personally I think you are a year early. I see some major damage coming in 2020 if it looks like the democrats are going to beat Trump in the election. Don't want to wade too deeply into politics on this board, but the politics they are selling - is seriously bad news for the stock market. Medicare for all (can't afford it), college for all (can't afford it), and on and on.
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