Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
You aren’t really reducing your exposure to equities as you are still fully invested in them. You may reduce your downside a couple of percent but if you really get hammered is being down 48% vs 52% or down 98% vs 100% all that different ?
Semantics and a ridiculous statement. Whatever the differential is if there is a hammering it is a REDUCTION of exposure.
Semantics and a ridiculous statement. Whatever the differential is if there is a hammering it is a REDUCTION of exposure.
Is it ridiculous? If you held a 100,000.00 single name and it went to 0.00 are you going around ringing the bell that you only lost 98,000.00. I’d say the semantics is in that you really aren’t reducing your exposure more than a percent or two which at the end of the day is nothing
Is it ridiculous? If you held a 100,000.00 single name and it went to 0.00 are you going around ringing the bell that you only lost 98,000.00. I’d say the semantics is in that you really aren’t reducing your exposure more than a percent or two which at the end of the day is nothing
Yup its ridiculous. Look up the difference between reduce and eliminate. Be well.
Yup its ridiculous. Look up the difference between reduce and eliminate. Be well.
I’m aware as I posted some math for you more than once. Selling covered calls from a practical standpoint does nothing. If someone posted I went from 100 equities to 99% reducing exposure to equities a slow clap would be in order because the move would be irrelevant long term
I’m aware as I posted some math for you more than once. Selling covered calls from a practical standpoint does nothing. If someone posted I went from 100 equities to 99% reducing exposure to equities a slow clap would be in order because the move would be irrelevant long term
The numbers you use to illustrate your point do not even remotely reflect the covered call strategy I implemented. No further discussion needed your feedback in reference to my trade adds nothing to the thread.
All the previous market downturns, I was too lazy and neglectful to pull my retirement out of stocks, and then I kicked myself afterwards. But we did it today. Moved everything (which had all been in a very broad stock index fund) into money market. This is the longest bull market we've ever seen, and I don't see any justification for it.
Now I have to figure out where to invest the money in anticipation of a downturn, that will allow me to jump back into stocks 'when there's blood in the streets'. Yes, I'm trying to time the market.
Ahh...the single silliest thing one can do ...time the market. Well, if the market drops good for you as long as you can figure out THE REALLY HARD PART ..trying to guess when to get back in. If it keeps going up..get ready for some sleepless nights OP because that is what you will be dealing with.
Ahh...the single silliest thing one can do ...time the market. Well, if the market drops good for you as long as you can figure out THE REALLY HARD PART ..trying to guess when to get back in. If it keeps going up..get ready for some sleepless nights OP because that is what you will be dealing with.
Yup, the OP pulled out of the market due to nervous feelings. Now the hard part begins. The OP can very well face a rising market. That will be accompanied by the realization of money lost. Then if there is no major drop the agony will grow. If there are minor drops, the nervousness will not go away. There will be the ongoing possibility that the bottom has been reached. I suppose the best scenario for the OP would be a rapid and drastic drop in the market. After 2008 we saw how the nervous types handled that. Some never returned to the markets. Others waited way too long.
Timing the market and doing it correctly might make sense, but that takes lots of knowledge, analysis and usually also luck.
Yup, the OP pulled out of the market due to nervous feelings. Now the hard part begins. The OP can very well face a rising market. That will be accompanied by the realization of money lost. Then if there is no major drop the agony will grow. If there are minor drops, the nervousness will not go away. There will be the ongoing possibility that the bottom has been reached. I suppose the best scenario for the OP would be a rapid and drastic drop in the market. After 2008 we saw how the nervous types handled that. Some never returned to the markets. Others waited way too long.
Timing the market and doing it correctly might make sense, but that takes lots of knowledge, analysis and usually also luck.
Exactly .if it goes up fear sets in..should I get back in? Should I wait and risk losing more? ugh...just not worth it. The ONLY way to win in this situation is like you said a fast sudden drop. Anything else just leads to indecision and frankly pain.
I DO get trimmimg down or selling high risk equities at high points but i DONT get pulling out totally.
Just using SPY as reference, so far the past 2 trading days favored the OP. It would be great if OP also reports back when he is buying back. That way we can quantify his market timing payoff.
Just using SPY as reference, so far the past 2 trading days favored the OP. It would be great if OP also reports back when he is buying back. That way we can quantify his market timing payoff.
The problem is that usually we have some nice juicy up days before you see those who play this game get back in .. those early big up days are the meat ...miss those big up days of which there really are few and the whole thing is not worth it .... missing the down days is very hard because you don’t know when they will be ... even guessing the time frame to be out is very hard ... it is easy to catch the big up days though ... just be in it
University of Michigan Professor H. Nejat Seyhun analyzed 7,802 trading days for the 31 years from 1963 to 1993 and concluded that just 90 days generated 95% of all the years’ market gains — an average of just three days per year.
This is why unless you can actually cherry pick the best day to be out odds are you will do worse not better over time playing this game
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-25-2019 at 11:01 AM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
