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If posting your fake trades on CD caused you to change your behavior I can’t imagine what actually handling real money will do.
Your expectations are wildly overshot. 7% a week even over the course of the year would turn 100k into 3.37mm in a year. Read it out loud and let the absurdity sink in
All my position trades were with real money. Last year's return for my position trades was +400% (& that's after having lost a crap load at the end of the year).
If I hadn't screwed up so much this year +186% was possible so far (not that I would've likely gone in the 3rd time since I don't really get into many new trades this late in the year so realistically it was more like +118%). And I've simplified & improved on my system for next year. Most people would probably call that absurd.
Hell, if you would've read my recent post & went back to look at some of my posted trades & decided to buy a few you would've made a little under 20% today alone (less slippage). Obviously that's not very likely, but someone could've done that on CD.
So I have no idea what's possible and what's absurd in swing trading yet. Thus why we test, then trade anything that looks promising. In testing the results aren't really important beyond the numbers looking good & trying to figure out if there's something we're getting wrong in the way we're testing.
I'm not the sort to take anybody's word for what can be without putting it to the test.
I may never get an answer to the 1-2% thing, but if I end up doing better I'm certainly not going to care. It feels like you've gotten hung up on the numbers & not the actual questions in this thread.
Where have you posted them? In the official post your trade thread I am only seeing,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Pitt Ash
Wish I would've been playing attention to get in on the OGI dip Friday. I still can add another 4% before I hit my max holding for it. I'd love to add even more, but I've been burned before on overweighting so hopefully I'll show a little discipline if/when I reach that percentage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Pitt Ash
Being in cash is soooo boring.
OGI at 12% though.
Depending on how far things fall I might make a few big buys later, but for now...yeah.
Not if you were in & out of it several times with the mini-rallies. From a swing trading perspective I'd imagine it would've been a pretty good pick.
However, that isn't one of the typical position trades (and I believe it says that right in the post). On that one I ended up bulking up too much, failed to sell off part on the rally (thought it was going to keep going), then trimmed it back after a certain loss percentage was hit to what the position should've been in the first place. As spec investments go it's still a solid, best in class type, but if/when the price will reflect that is anyone's guess. Earnings should be coming up soon & with the one time earnings snafu out of the way it should see either a run up (then sell the news) or a pop on the day of the announcement. Typical behavior for it & most other stocks in the industry spike when the "leaders" have good news & drop when they don't.
You'd have to go beyond that to closer to the beginning of the year. Probably the "easiest" way to find it is to just go through my posts directly rather than the thread itself. Fun part is you get to see exactly where I started to take bad trades from over trading as well as the good stuff. I believe I even posted the "diversification" trades (added just so it wouldn't be so myopic in theory, but which eventually faded after 40-50% run ups).
Note: I don't think this should need to be said, but if you take any trades that people post on CD or anywhere else for that matter you should do your own due diligence & know the industry or at least know how to trade it. You are assuming your own risk. It's not advice. etc.
Last edited by Port Pitt Ash; 11-05-2019 at 04:20 PM..
All my position trades were with real money. Last year's return for my position trades was +400% (& that's after having lost a crap load at the end of the year).
If I hadn't screwed up so much this year +186% was possible so far (not that I would've likely gone in the 3rd time since I don't really get into many new trades this late in the year so realistically it was more like +118%). And I've simplified & improved on my system for next year. Most people would probably call that absurd.
Hell, if you would've read my recent post & went back to look at some of my posted trades & decided to buy a few you would've made a little under 20% today alone (less slippage). Obviously that's not very likely, but someone could've done that on CD.
So I have no idea what's possible and what's absurd in swing trading yet. Thus why we test, then trade anything that looks promising. In testing the results aren't really important beyond the numbers looking good & trying to figure out if there's something we're getting wrong in the way we're testing.
I'm not the sort to take anybody's word for what can be without putting it to the test.
I may never get an answer to the 1-2% thing, but if I end up doing better I'm certainly not going to care. It feels like you've gotten hung up on the numbers & not the actual questions in this thread.
Post a screenshot of your gain/loss summary for last year
Don't know why you are arguing about how much money you can make trading. "Just do it".
Why are you posting on City data in the first place. Plenty of trading forums that would tell you what you want to know and of course let you know your expectations are a bit off. Why would you post on the city data investing forum? Why not "Elite trader" or similar forums?
If you start with 1 thousand dollars on January 2nd and trade every business day, you will have over 22 billion dollars at the end of the year. Get real.
Why are you posting on City data in the first place. Plenty of trading forums that would tell you what you want to know and of course let you know your expectations are a bit off. Why would you post on the city data investing forum? Why not "Elite trader" or similar forums?
Mainly came back to post about my Louisville trip. Then I remembered in past posts it seemed like a lot of people in here were swing traders so I figured it would be worth asking about which brokers had good fills & how the speed of their fills now that $0 trade fees has gone wide. In my regular trading I'm doing position trades so quick fills aren't an issue nor are getting shares (since I'm long only on those).
My testing results thus far really weren't supposed to be anything beyond wondering why what I was told to expect was so different than the numbers I was getting. But it seems everyone has latched onto that & all but one person failed to attempt to answer the thread questions.
I figured they were straightforward, easy to answer questions that would make for a quick one & done post. Instead this...
You're right though I should try harder not to let trolls drag me into this crap.
Never posted about my investing anywhere else mainly since I'm paranoid about people figuring out what I'm doing & having it stop working from too many people doing it. Outside of my father, my cousin's husband (rarely), and my mentor I don't even discuss investing with anyone. Even then I rarely talk to my mentor since he's a value-momentum investor & I've gotten away from that approach.
I posted on the CD investing forum because I noticed it was there & city-data is the only forum I'm on. In the past I doubt I would have even been on here, but joined when I was looking for a new place to live.
And it gives me something to do when I get done with my work/days off when it's like 2am & not much is open/everyone else is asleep.
...Last year's return for my position trades was +400% ...If I hadn't screwed up so much this year +186% was possible ...
186% annual gain is 0.42%/day, assuming that you trade every single business-day and that every trade is thus profitable. 400% annually is 0.65%/day. So, even if you're making 400% annual gains, that is at least 10 times larger - per day - than what you had claimed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Port Pitt Ash
...I'm paranoid about people figuring out what I'm doing & having it stop working from too many people doing it. ...
186% annual gain is 0.42%/day, assuming that you trade every single business-day and that every trade is thus profitable. 400% annually is 0.65%/day. So, even if you're making 400% annual gains, that is at least 10 times larger - per day - than what you had claimed.
You're confusing separate things.
The 186% is for this year. It isn't across the whole year. More like 5ish months (Q1 & two 1 month rallies). But the point here is the year gave you a few chances to follow along if you had wanted to & would've been able to capture part of that gain. The June rally was expected, but the one that came after wasn't. I'm assuming it has something to do with a certain someone trying to prop up the market. For most of the year it looked a lot like last year. Although both you had clear spots to hop in as long as you knew how to read basic indicators.
The 400% is what I was left with last year from the total year. Although last year was a bit of an anomaly. Everybody made stupid good money last year. I was curious how things would go this year.
In both cases we're talking real world position trades (i.e. longer than swing trades, but not longer than a year or so). That's the core of my trading. With further testing I found out it will do even better by streamlining it & only trading it 3-6 months of the year. Problem is that leaves the rest of the year.
Which brings us to this thread. It is about swing trading (testing stages now, but to be traded later).
In practical terms the differences are:
My position trades are less limited so more money will be able to go into each of those positions even though the return is potentially lower.
The swing trades will be from the short side, with a much smaller fixed amount every time, but potentially at much greater overall return percentagewise. To keep it in the safer range you're talking potential six figures instead of potential seven, but you get more chances with swing trading an no one trade really makes that big of a difference. Position trading is another story. Screw up big enough at the start it could mean the difference between having an amazing year & one that ends up similar to the market return (with a whole lot of wasted effort).
Both approaches are limited by overall volume & cap size. In the case of swing trading you have many additional concerns. I feel you're confused. You know you can't just swing trade, make x% a day, and then swing trade the next with those extra funds, right? I mean I guess you could up to the max # of shares you could safely take relative to the volume assuming the shares were available & you had the cash to do so, but you'd be breaking so many rules that keep you safe it wouldn't even be funny.
But hey if you want to play Vegas & gamble it all away, more power to you.
That said it seems we've gotten a bit off topic. It doesn't seem anybody else going to attempt to answer the primary questions so as far as I'm concerned the thread's done.
Thanks to the one poster who actually made a suggestion. I'll have to check out TD Ameritrade to see how it goes.
Unless Ash is reinvesting the entire newly increased amount on each successive trade all these exponential growth projections don't apply. He might have started with a $1000 trade but by the time he gets to a million he may run into lack of available contracts not to mention lack of nerve in just letting it all ride. I'm guessing long before.
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