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Well, if you’ve been following other threads on this forum, then you will know there is a poster who is predicting a massive stock market crash, the likes of which we have never seen in our lifetimes.
So, there’s that.
I wouldn't take one poster's word for it. But lots of experts are predicting it. In general, the more libertarian an expert is, the more they are expecting the end of the world. The more progressive, the more sympathetic with MMT -- they are likely to be ok with the craziness.
I didn't invest in stocks because they are unpredictable and I did ok with CD interest. I am retired and therefore don't want to invest in stocks. Financial advisors would probably say stocks are ok, everybody is doing it.
When everybody is doing something, I am skeptical.
Stocks are a long-term investment vehicle. You have to wait 10, 20, 30 years to see good results with stocks. The S&P 500 doubles in value about once every 10 years.
That is why normally people should start investing in stocks early on their career.
Stocks are a long-term investment vehicle. You have to wait 10, 20, 30 years to see good results with stocks. The S&P 500 doubles in value about once every 10 years.
That is why normally people should start investing in stocks early on their career.
I understand, and that is why I don't want to buy them now. Unless they crash, then I might. But the Fed will do every crazy thing it can think of to not let them crash.
I understand, and that is why I don't want to buy them now. Unless they crash, then I might. But the Fed will do every crazy thing it can think of to not let them crash.
If the Fed starts buying equities then it's over.
You likely won’t buy when things are plunging ....that is the problem ,few do serious buying when markets look like they have no bottom and we are just going lower and lower ......they may dip their toes but few really comitt..
Then when the market has a nice up day they think it is a suckers rally ...so they wait ...each day the market goes higher and each day they go I will wait for a roll back .
By the time they commit a meaningful amount they would have been better just buying when things were up and riding it through ..
You likely won’t buy when things are plunging ....that is the problem ,few do serious buying when markets look like they have no bottom and we are just going lower and lower ......they may dip their toes but few really comitt..
Then when the market has a nice up day they think it is a suckers rally ...so they wait ...each day the market goes higher and each day they go I will wait for a roll back .
By the time they commit a meaningful amount they would have been better just buying when things were up and riding it through ..
This story repeats over and over
Everyone buys high and sells low. Fortunately, my instinct is always to do whatever everyone else isn't doing.
Everyone buys high and sells low. Fortunately, my instinct is always to do whatever everyone else isn't doing.
Doing the opposite of everyone is a fun thing to say, makes you feel like a maverick, but in reality it's a losing strategy. Most of the time, you will end up buying near the beginning or middle of a crash and then will end up selling in the infancy of the bull market.
For example, if you would have just bought a market fund in 2016, instead of a 5 year CD, you would be up exponentially, around 40 years worth of your CD. You could have retired and cashed out for the rest of your life if you wanted instead of worrying about inflation right now.
The rule of "the trend is your friend" and "be a bull in a bull market"... is the better way to invest and all data proves it.
Everyone buys high and sells low. Fortunately, my instinct is always to do whatever everyone else isn't doing.
The most money is made buying high and selling higher ....the trend is your friend ....
More money is lost by trying to buy low as low ends up just falling lower and lower ....after a few thousand points many bail out or hit their stop losses.
But up is up ... since we spend 2/3s of the time going up and only 1/3 going down ,the most money is made in the up cycle going up not catching the lows
Doing the opposite of everyone is a fun thing to say, makes you feel like a maverick, but in reality it's a losing strategy. Most of the time, you will end up buying near the beginning or middle of a crash and then will end up selling in the infancy of the bull market.
For example, if you would have just bought a market fund in 2016, instead of a 5 year CD, you would be up exponentially, around 40 years worth of your CD. You could have retired and cashed out for the rest of your life if you wanted instead of worrying about inflation right now.
The rule of "the trend is your friend" and "be a bull in a bull market"... is the better way to invest and all data proves it.
Yes I understand and of course I would not automatically do the opposite of everyone else. We have to think hard and know as much as possible.
Before the 2008 real estate crash, for several years, I was being advised to buy real estate. But I could feel that it was a bubble. And of course I was reading about it constantly, and lots of experts were saying it was a bubble. But lots of experts were also saying it wasn't.
So now, the more libertarian experts (who I trust a little more) are saying stocks are a giant bubble, caused by Fed interventions. That reasoning makes sense to me. QE money is indirectly poured into stocks, and there is nothing rational or real about that money. And the retirees forced into stocks are being forced against common sense and reason.
But investors see stocks going up for a long long time and no one can say when if ever they will head down. My little brain says watch out for that.
Yeah that's the trouble, nobody knows what will happen next. I read a lot of different experts and get very different opinions.
My posting here was not to have someone tell me what to do. I just wanted to start a conversation and get diverse opinions.
It's true that I never invested in stocks before, but it's also true that I follow the stock market and financial news carefully, and have been for years.
I didn't invest in stocks because they are unpredictable and I did ok with CD interest. I am retired and therefore don't want to invest in stocks. Financial advisors would probably say stocks are ok, everybody is doing it.
When everybody is doing something, I am skeptical.
Actually, your posting on here did look like it was a request for some recommendations, as you said:
I am searching for ways to prevent my savings from evaporating.
i gave you a conservative and simple portfolio to consider, it's not exactly the same as what I have now, , but it's similar. Did you take the time to review and consider it?
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