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I didn't listen to the podcast, too long. I read a summary of his ideas -- yes, passive investing is a big problem. I had already heard about that.
I had thought about Vanguard index fund in the past, but decided against it.
I don't know what Mike Green recommends instead, and maybe that requires listening to the whole podcast. Maybe I can find transcripts or summaries (I read very fast so it is much more efficient for me to read than listen).
I think he might say that passive investing distorts the entire market and makes it impossible to predict. In addition, the Fed distorts the market. So those two things together have destroyed any hope of intelligent investing. Basically, all you can do now is throw money in and cross your fingers.
So, as per usual for me, apparently I bought TLT pretty much at its peak as I move closer to a Permanent Portfolio allocation. Of course, since then it has only gone down. Does it still make sense to hold Long Term Treasuries right now as part of the PP? I've lost a chunk of it and it's only been a month. Would it be any better to move it to BND or maybe a split of TLT and BND? (or another intermediate bond fund?)
So, as per usual for me, apparently I bought TLT pretty much at its peak as I move closer to a Permanent Portfolio allocation. Of course, since then it has only gone down. Does it still make sense to hold Long Term Treasuries right now as part of the PP? I've lost a chunk of it and it's only been a month. Would it be any better to move it to BND or maybe a split of TLT and BND? (or another intermediate bond fund?)
No one can say .....those who believe the permanent will continue to do its thing will hold it forever .... eventually cycles repeat ...what goes up comes down And then reverses ....no one has the crystal ball to tell .
Right now I would not go to bnd at all ....if anything as much as I am not a fan of tips I would hedge Tlt with gold and a short term tips fund like vtip .....
The arguments I have seen from reputable and informed sources , not arm chair wanna be amateur economists here , are calling for the govt to reinflate us via spending and programs since rates are pretty much out of fuel.
The logic to me makes sense and I don’t see a depression style bust based on the pros and cons I have seen .if anything I think stagflation is what we may see
So, as per usual for me, apparently I bought TLT pretty much at its peak as I move closer to a Permanent Portfolio allocation. Of course, since then it has only gone down. Does it still make sense to hold Long Term Treasuries right now as part of the PP? I've lost a chunk of it and it's only been a month. Would it be any better to move it to BND or maybe a split of TLT and BND? (or another intermediate bond fund?)
Congratulations! TLT only lost 4% past month while SP lost 7% and Nasdaq lost 10% the past week.
Well, with my current allocation I'm about +0.0% since Aug 6 - which is when I made my big moves to TLT and GLD (such bad timing I have.) I should have dollar cost averaged in to those (or paid attention to the news of the day.) It's just really hard to watch 2 of the 4 asset classes I'm holding drop so much so quickly - but I guess that's the idea of PP? (EEK! What if stocks, TLT, GLD all start dropping simultaneously? I guess that's why I have 30% cash, too.)
We are retiring next year and have cash for probably 3 years (5 if necessary if we're frugal). Will also have pension but would like to put that off a few years if we can since it is not COL adjusted.
You can still get an IRR of over 2% from some SMA's. They are more illiquid than your CDs, but you can ladder fixed SMAs just like CDs. You may have to be patient for the right SMA for you, to become available. Each state has its own regulation on insuring a structure settlement (state where the judgement was rendered). Most brokers state they are not insured, which may not be true in all cases. However, it would probably cost you a lot of $$$ for a good lawyer to try to get a state to pay out on a structured settlement where the insurance company has stopped paying.
I bought all of mine through a broker at immediate annuities (405K paid, will get 565K back). Four of them came from DCF, the largest broker. I've had a good experience working with the broker at immediate annuities. He intervened twice in my behalf when the insurance company failed to send my payment on time. I'm not sure you'll get that level of service if you buy directly from DCF.
Another alternative to a CD or bond would be seller financed mortgage notes. You can also buy these on the secondary market. I had a note that I originated for 3 years. My borrower paid each month on time and paid off the note after three years (two years early).
Last edited by mitchmiller9; 09-11-2020 at 01:56 AM..
There are always wildcards. COVID is a real example. Nobody can predict the future. As for me, I have things spread out as much as I can. I have pension accounts that give a guaranteed rate of interest, accounts with Fidelity and Vanguard. Right now I am about 52/48 stocks and bonds. CD's. Cash in high yield savings. Right now, I don't want to invest in anything. The election is going to be difficult, as is COVID. Hunkering down for the next 6 months seems wise. My 2 cents.
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