Gruesome scene in New Bedford (Boston, Worcester: middle-class, oceanfront, high crime)

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by massnative71

Baltimore is one of the most dangerous cities not only in the US but the whole developed world. Not typical of even urban America. An exception by all means.

Compared to MA, the exceptions list gets quite long ... St. Louis, KC, Memphis, Indi, low tier Cali, low tier OH, etc.

I'm not ignorant to the very really problems in the northeast, but the violent crime rates remain quite low compared to other urban areas of America.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Compared to MA, the exceptions list gets quite long ... St. Louis, KC, Memphis, Indi, low tier Cali, low tier OH, etc.

I'm not ignorant to the very really problems in the northeast, but the violent crime rates remain quite low compared to other urban areas of America.

And the most dangerous urban areas of ME, NH, VT...have nothing on New Bedford, Brockton or even probably Fitchburg for that matter (want to try Canada next???). What's your point? This conversation is about Mass.


But the "list" isn't really that long, if Baltimore sets the bar. I even felt safer in Detroit.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by massnative71

And the most dangerous urban areas of ME, NH, VT...have nothing on New Bedford, Brockton or even probably Fitchburg for that matter (want to try Canada for that matter???). What's your point? This conversation is about Mass.

Point is despite all the fear mongering on this board regarding places like NB, Fitchburg, Lawrence, Lowell, Worcester, etc., it is still very possible live/operate within and not become a victim of violence/crime. Does that mean I wish to live in them? No, not with a small child demanding a be concerned about school performance and statistical outcomes ... I'm privileged in this regard.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't strive to improve the conditions in these cities, but they are generally performing better than similar lower tier urban areas in other parts of the country. Places like Holyoke likely come closer to replicating the struggles elsewhere in the country were economic opportunity is worse than dismal.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Point is despite all the fear mongering on this board regarding places like NB, Fitchburg, Lawrence, Lowell, Worcester, etc., it is still very possible live/operate within and not become a victim of violence/crime. Does that mean I wish to live in them? No, not with a small child demanding a be concerned about school performance and statistical outcomes ... I'm privileged in this regard.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't strive to improve the conditions in these cities, but they are generally performing better than similar lower tier urban areas in other parts of the country. Places like Holyoke likely come closer to replicating the struggles elsewhere in the country were economic opportunity is worse than dismal.

The western end of Holyoke is middle class. There are medical jobs and college jobs. I'm agreeing with the thesis that you can find somewhere decent in any of the failed cities if you don't need the school system.


I'm not sure how you break the cycle to improve conditions in those cities. Intuitively, I'd think the place to spend the money is the school system. If you're in Weld Square, your elementary school is the Parker School. That's in state receivership so it's already having lots of money flung at it. I'm dubious. The State makes a lousy surrogate parent. I suspect the state oversight and money will impact ~10% to 20% of the students in that school. That's not critical mass.


This also kind of begs the question about an 18 year old kid from a small white collar bedroom town in Mattapoisett gunning people down and running out of ammo so the police could arrest him. The police gunned down a physician's kid in front of my house. He had been an engineering student at Northeastern and went off the rails with hard drugs. Father had a widow maker heart attack which I'm sure had something to do with going off the rails. He suicided at a state mental hospital 6 months later. I don't know the details but I'd bet this case is similar. Drugs can impact any socioeconomic class. There's only one reason why an 18-year-old from a leafy harbor town would be in Weld Square. The United States is lousy at dealing with mental health issues and drug addiction tends to spin out of that.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

The western end of Holyoke is middle class. There are medical jobs and college jobs. I'm agreeing with the thesis that you can find somewhere decent in any of the failed cities if you don't need the school system.


I'm not sure how you break the cycle to improve conditions in those cities. Intuitively, I'd think the place to spend the money is the school system. If you're in Weld Square, your elementary school is the Parker School. That's in state receivership so it's already having lots of money flung at it. I'm dubious. The State makes a lousy surrogate parent. I suspect the state oversight and money will impact ~10% to 20% of the students in that school. That's not critical mass.

And you won't ever reach that critical mass if upwardly mobile parents exit to better districts. It does feel a bit futile.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

... everywhere else in MA.

My peer group's experience in Baltimore suggests it can A LOT worse despite their efforts to hole up in relatively 'gentrified' 'hoods (e.g., Fells Point, Fed Hill, Canton). I think your general sentiment holds true in most MA neighborhoods, but other urban areas of the U.S. present much higher risks to the general public.

Most of my contacts there, despite heavily romanticizing the city, bailed shortly after the Freddy Gray riots ... at that point they had been there the better part of a decade and nearly all had directly experienced some degree of crime - assaults, muggings, violent auto/bike theft, apt break ins, etc.

MA cities have their issues, but the misery is much more ... well, let's be honest here ... segregated.

Correct. In Boston, my friends, family and I were regular victims of property or violent crime. Pretty much any crime you can think of I know someone whose been a victim of it in Boston. Crime doesn't really impact white folks much in urban MA and definitely not Boston. BUt for the rest of us? Yea-its a real issue.

The difference in the white homicide rate in Baltimore vs. Boston is ~30x worse in Baltimore.

The homicide rate in Black Boston vs Back Baltimore? Then it's more like 3/4x worse in Baltimore. As recently as 2010 It was only maybe 2x as bad for Black Baltimoreans.

A normal year in Baltimore sees maybe 300 black homicides and 15 white ones in Boston it’s more like 45 black homicides and 1-2 white ones. The black population in baltimore is about 2.3x Boston’s. The white population in Baltimore is less than half Boston’s. So to white Bostonians this is basically safer than Scandinavia especially when you add in other high density white areas like Cambridge and Somerville.

Non fatally there may be 750-800 victims in Baltimore and 200 in Boston in a year, so the difference is less than 2x. In terms of per capita gun violence for black baltimoreans and black Bostonians.


If Boston had no POC there’d hardly be any poverty at all whatsoever through the entire city, ditto for the metro. This is 100% not the case in Baltimore or most cities. Half the white household in Boston are over 100k and the majority of them in the metro are. White Bostonians operate in a totally different plane.


That being said no, New Bedford is not safe. And it doesn't feel safe. The homicide rate doesnt say a lot, Baltimore has 12x the homicide rate as Boston but only 4x the non fatal shooting rate

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Compared to MA, the exceptions list gets quite long ... St. Louis, KC, Memphis, Indi, low tier Cali, low tier OH, etc.

I'm not ignorant to the very really problems in the northeast, but the violent crime rates remain quite low compared to other urban areas of America.

Indy, KC, and lower tier Cali really arent on Baltimore levels. Thats just not true.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Indy, KC, and lower tier Cali really arent on Baltimore levels. Thats just not true.

I'm not suggesting they are, but they have considerably higher rates of violent crime than most MA cities, including the 'failed' ones. Aggravated assault numbers per 100k in these cities are more inline with Baltimore than they are to any MA city.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

I'm not suggesting they are, but they have considerably higher rates of violent crime than most MA cities, including the 'failed' ones. Aggravated assault numbers per 100k in these cities are more inline with Baltimore than they are to any MA city.

Sure but if you dial back the clock just ~6/7 years that’s not really a true statement. That’s still in everyone memory and very much a part of the lived experience. That trauma is fresh, even in the schools. Little premature for back patting imo. It was only 2013 when 8 MA cities were top 100 most dangerous. A massive overrepresentation.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Sure but if you dial back the clock just ~6/7 years that’s not really a true statement. That’s still in everyone memory and very much a part of the lived experience. That trauma is fresh, even in the schools. Little premature for back patting imo. It was only 2013 when 8 MA cities were top 100 most dangerous. A massive overrepresentation.

I think you're overrepresenting my overrepresenting.

To my knowledge, Springfield has been the only MA city consistently in the top 50 for overall crime past decade (and not violent crime). Additionally, as you are aware crime rankings are also not particularly linear or driven solely by violent crime. Baltimore and, to a lesser degree, cities like St. Louis, KC, etc. are way more violent than than the worst MA cities ... now or back in 2010 when MA was more violent as whole. A city ranked at #50 is going to have 3x-4x less violent crime than first 10-15 on the list and the scope is going to be much more limited (as you suggest).

As a resident, I'm far more concerned about violent crime than I am about property crime. I'm also not trying to suggest those living within these MA cities are spared from violence, crime, and general struggle ... this is obviously not the case. I'm just rather tired of seeing this forum constantly take a s___ on MAs low tier cities as though they are somehow wildly more violent/dangerous than 'gentrified' Boston or comparable to Americans worst metro areas in which every member of society runs a serious risk of becoming a victim of crime.