Why Is Missouri No Longer a Swing State? (Kansas City, St. Louis: high school, vs.)

[GunnerTHB]

Originally Posted by WiseOwlSaysHoot

Anyone who thinks that race didn't factor in to the Presidential election in the Ozarks and rural Missouri is willfully ignorant.

Race factors into every election everywhere.

[northbound74]

Originally Posted by WiseOwlSaysHoot

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but this assertion is soe woefully out of touch with reality, it is laughable.

The Republican party has veered hard to right and are running moderates out of their party. This isn't up for debate, it is a fact. Arlen Specter, Olympia Snowe, Charlie Christ, Michael Bloomberg, Michael Steele, Richard Lugar, Colin Powell, Lisa Murkowski... the list goes on... all have been called RINOs and either forced out of the party or out of office by hard right wingers.

The Republican platform is being dictated by blowhard extremist like Rush Limbaugh who have to convince people that it is actually the Dems who are moving to the left to make their own out of touch views palatable.

If Richard Nixon were around today, he would be far to the left of any republicans - he may even be to left of Obama on many policies. Nixon created OSHA as well as the EPA, NOAA and other environmental regulations including the Clean Water act. He endorsed the Equal Rights Amendment and implemented federal Affirmative Action Programs. He ended the draft and negotiated for peace in Vietnam.

What most people consider Obama's most liberal, socialist policy, Obamacare, was based on Republican ideas. The individual mandate was originally suggested by the right wing orignization, The Heritage Foundation, and proposed in bills by Republican senators including Chuck Grassley and Orin Hatch. And everyone knows Mitt Romney's influence on the legislation.

As for Missouri, I think it could go back to being more of a swing state. The success of electing Dems to local office has already been pointed out. Anyone who thinks that race didn't factor in to the Presidential election in the Ozarks and rural Missouri is willfully ignorant.

Race is no more a factor than in many large cities. Having lived in both, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind about it. I'll never understand why people make accusations of racism. Scraping the barrel for excuses, if you ask me.
Those silly statements about guns and religion or "you didn't build that" would have been just as unpopular if they came from a white guy.
Remember, Gore and Kerry didn't enjoy any more support than Obama in those traditionally red areas.

Republicans have their ideologues, no doubt, but please don't forget about the extremists that seemingly solidify the democratic base.
Also, go further back in history to realize that obamacare is far more in line with traditional democratic policy than republican.

[aragx6]

^Well no, not really. The individual mandate, the thing so many conservatives have taken issue with in regards to Obamacare, is an idea first proposed by the conservative Heritage Foundation in 1989.

Obamacare Was a Republican Idea! 5 Obama Issues The GOP Once Owned - Los Angeles - News - The Informer

[marigolds6]

Have to remember that the Tea Party basically emerged out of St Louis to become a national movement. The Tea Party's origins in Missouri have created a very significant conservative swing in suburban St Louis; and that has been a big factor in Missouri's swing to a Red State.
Democrats won statewide election because this same swing produced one of the most atrocious slates of Republican candidates I have ever seen.
Todd Akin
Dave Spence
Peter Kinder (And just think, he won after his strip club scandal)
Shane Schoeller
Ed Martin
Cole McNary

Just looking at that list, you could see that Akin, Spence, and Martin were going to get killed no matter who they run against. Considering Akin ran against McCaskill, it was a tall order to lose and lose so badly, but Akin was that bad of a candidate.
Spence was a flawed newcomer that was a last minute fill in after Kinder dropped out over his strip club scandal. Pretty much a sacrifice candidate to try to get people out to the polls for other elections.
Martin? I was shocked the GOP ran him for anything after his termination over egregious sunshine law violations during the Blunt administration. Actually a worse candidate than Akin post-rape comments.
Scoeller and McNary were mediocre candidates running against incumbents who narrowly lost. Stronger candidates could have won both elections.

[GunnerTHB]

Originally Posted by marigolds6

Have to remember that the Tea Party basically emerged out of St Louis to become a national movement. The Tea Party's origins in Missouri have created a very significant conservative swing in suburban St Louis; and that has been a big factor in Missouri's swing to a Red State.
Democrats won statewide election because this same swing produced one of the most atrocious slates of Republican candidates I have ever seen.
Todd Akin
Dave Spence
Peter Kinder (And just think, he won after his strip club scandal)
Shane Schoeller
Ed Martin
Cole McNary

Just looking at that list, you could see that Akin, Spence, and Martin were going to get killed no matter who they run against. Considering Akin ran against McCaskill, it was a tall order to lose and lose so badly, but Akin was that bad of a candidate.
Spence was a flawed newcomer that was a last minute fill in after Kinder dropped out over his strip club scandal. Pretty much a sacrifice candidate to try to get people out to the polls for other elections.
Martin? I was shocked the GOP ran him for anything after his termination over egregious sunshine law violations during the Blunt administration. Actually a worse candidate than Akin post-rape comments.
Scoeller and McNary were mediocre candidates running against incumbents who narrowly lost. Stronger candidates could have won both elections.

Well to be fair, Peter Kinder was around before the Tea Party. And the original Tea Party is nothing like what people know as the Tea Party today. The original Tea Party was about fiscal conservatism and not much else. It was hijacked by the Republicans and now many of the people claiming to be "Tea Party Conservatives" are far right on social issues. That alone makes many of them unelectable for many.

[northbound74]

Originally Posted by aragx6

^Well no, not really. The individual mandate, the thing so many conservatives have taken issue with in regards to Obamacare, is an idea first proposed by the conservative Heritage Foundation in 1989.

Obamacare Was a Republican Idea! 5 Obama Issues The GOP Once Owned - Los Angeles - News - The Informer

I know about the late 80's stuff, I was talking about the last 100 years overall. In that context, something like obamacare would easily fall under democratic ideals, whereas republicans would be much less inclined to support such legislation although they have had some that would embrace it.

[aragx6]

Originally Posted by northbound74

I know about the late 80's stuff, I was talking about the last 100 years overall. In that context, something like obamacare would easily fall under democratic ideals, whereas republicans would be much less inclined to support such legislation although they have had some that would embrace it.

That's certainly fair.

[Flyover_Country]

National politics is currently mainly divided up between rural, smaller towns, and suburbs = Republican and large cities and college towns = Democrat. Look at the national election results by county and this could not be any more clear. Missouri's population is fairly evenly split between rural areas, small towns, and suburbs vs. KC/STL/Columbia so the elections are always fairly close. Obama is a very, very polarizing figure who is the stereotype of a big-city elitist academic- and he also tried to ram through a lot of very far-reaching legislation under quite a bit of controversy in his first term. That doesn't resonate well in a lot of Missouri as it seems like quite a few people even in KC and STL don't really consider themselves really big-city people and the state has a historic skepticism of big promises from politicians (it's in our motto.) Bill Clinton won MO because he pitched himself as a more centrist small-town good 'ol boy and was likable. Romney was also a big-city elitist type but managed to come off a little bit more human than the fairly standoffish and arrogant Obama, plus didn't have the baggage of having served a term already that didn't go as well as he had planned.

[stlouisan]

Originally Posted by goat314

Missouri is slow growth and hasn't kept up with the demographic trends of a rapidly changing country, our Black population is a close to the national average, but outside of that we are overwhelmingly White and lack a major Hispanic or Asian population. We still remain a largely rural and suburban conservative state and with the exception of St. Louis, which is demographically and culturally reminiscent rust belt/Great Lakes, Missouri is culturally a split between the Great Plains and Upland South. Missourians are just generally Whiter, older, less educated and more conservative than the average American.

Goat314, I generally agree with most of what you say, but Missouri is not at all culturally like the Great Plains. As far as the Upland South is concerned, topographically this may be true, but culturally it generally isn't. Starting below KC, Jeff City, and STL, and ending around Joplin, Springfield, and Cape Girardeau is the transition zone from Midwest to south. Kshe and Gunner will back me up on this. As far as being conservative, Kansas City is moderate, and St. Louis is moderate to liberal, as is Columbia. These cities/metro areas account for at least half of Missouri's population. As far as less educated, that's a bold statement to make.

[stlouisan]

IMO, Missouri is and always will be a swing state. Last election we were nearly split down the middle McCain and Obama...McCain only carried Missouri by 3,000 votes if even that. Keep in mind that Missouri is not the most conservative state in the Midwest by a long shot. Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, South and North Dakota are all far more conservative. Indiana went democratic for the first time in almost 50 years back in 2008, then shifted right back to republican again. Nothing has really changed much about the state...St. Louis, Kansas City, and Columbia still tend to vote blue while the rest of the state votes red. Ohio, while certainly more liberal than Missouri, shares these same characteristics for the most part...liberal in its major cities, deep red in the rural areas.